current UK domain appreciation

turnic · 30-01-2008, 12:25:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by programmer

You don't!

But as you know TurNIC, i suggested normalising the distribution for each year simply to conduct a year on year comparison. Even using a Gaussian distribution analysis on a skewed distribution, the corrolation between the two is usually there.
And i would hesitate to remove the 'outliers' as well, they still represent part of the capture data.
I agree that stats are interesting, and very useful indeed. It's such a shame the British Army rely upon the Gaussian to such an extent that they seem to order 10,000 pairs of boots religiously to the results. The outcome: Half a dozen squaddies at the back of that queue end up with badly fitting boots because then never order an extra six pair for each size!

I would do this for boots:

I try to get the each years' histograms. Try to see what kind of distribution they have. If the histograms give a shape of Standard distribution I will go with it or try to use other distributions like poisson etc.

I, then get the distribution of means or medians of each years data and check whether means or medians of each years' means or medians have a tendency. By taking 95percent confidence interval of the distribution of the means I will make sure I have some margin.

Then I go back to the last years standard distribution and expand each foot group by that number coming from the distribution of the means.

Or you can use elastic material and produce just 10000 mean number shoes

TurNIC

retired_member12 · 30-01-2008, 12:43:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by turnic

I would do this for boots:

I try to get the each years' histograms. Try to see what kind of distribution they have. If the histograms give a shape of Standard distribution I will go with it or try to use other distributions like poisson etc.

I, then get the distribution of means or medians of each years data and check whether means or medians of each years' means or medians have a tendency. By taking 95percent confidence interval of the distribution of the means I will make sure I have some margin.

Then I go back to the last years standard distribution and expand each foot group by that number coming from the distribution of the means...

TurNIC

Exactly!!

julian · 06-02-2008, 03:16:39 PM

any changes in thought given the latest sales

thx

Rich · 06-02-2008, 08:59:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by turnic

I would do this for boots:

I try to get the each years' histograms. Try to see what kind of distribution they have. If the histograms give a shape of Standard distribution I will go with it or try to use other distributions like poisson etc.

I, then get the distribution of means or medians of each years data and check whether means or medians of each years' means or medians have a tendency. By taking 95percent confidence interval of the distribution of the means I will make sure I have some margin.

Then I go back to the last years standard distribution and expand each foot group by that number coming from the distribution of the means.

Or you can use elastic material and produce just 10000 mean number shoes

TurNIC

If i ever come to an Acorn meet remind me not to sit between you two

julian · 23-02-2008, 10:44:42 AM

Would it be a fair assumption that a ball park figure for general annual domain appeciation would be around 15%.

I could stick my neck out and say thats still a far better return you'd get from a banking dosh etc..?

(of course its still entirely subjective as that figure (15%) is based on the knowledge of the people who voted 50/50 between 10% and 20%?)

View Poll Results: Average Annual .uk Domain Appreciation
< = 10%	7	31.82%
20%	9	40.91%
30%	4	18.18%
40%	1	4.55%
50%	0	0%
60%	1	4.55%
70%	0	0%
80%	0	0%
doubles in value each year	0	0%
triples in value each year	0	0%
Voters: 22. You may not vote on this poll

23-02-2008, 10:44:42 AM	#15 (permalink)
julian Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: On the slippery slope.. Posts: 1,563 No Classified Ratings Domain Trader Rating: (100% / 28)	Would it be a fair assumption that a ball park figure for general annual domain appeciation would be around 15%. I could stick my neck out and say thats still a far better return you'd get from a banking dosh etc..? (of course its still entirely subjective as that figure (15%) is based on the knowledge of the people who voted 50/50 between 10% and 20%?) __________________ degrees-movie-buy physical gold-poor credit rating- ClassicASPDeveloper-dementia test-seo-chess-poker-overdrafts-Bruges-Free Range Eggs-intraocular lenses- fishing tackle insurance-directory-divorce-online wills-kids laptops

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06-02-2008, 03:16:39 PM	#13 (permalink)
julian Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: On the slippery slope.. Posts: 1,563 No Classified Ratings Domain Trader Rating: (100% / 28)	any changes in thought given the latest sales thx