Enjoy unlimited access to all forum features for FREE! Optional upgrade available for extra perks.

EU Referendum

Discussion in 'The Bar' started by ian, May 23, 2016.

?

Acorn EU Poll

Poll closed Jun 24, 2016.
  1. Remain

    28 vote(s)
    30.1%
  2. Leave

    57 vote(s)
    61.3%
  3. Undecided

    8 vote(s)
    8.6%
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. ian

    ian Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 2008
    Posts:
    4,154
    Likes Received:
    311
    Must admit to having not given this much thought yet, but I haven't watched live television in over 12 months, so well behind on the pro's and con's. I can imagine what is happening, one party fighting to stay in, the other out, and all the misinformation that goes between.

    So, what are your views? Key reasons to stay in or leave? How do you think it will affect you?

    See if we can get a sensible discussion going; this is an important decision for the UK.

    PS - on a simplistic level, which option is best for the NHS?
     
  2. Domain Forum

    Acorn Domains Elite Member

    Joined:
    1999
    Messages:
    Many
    Likes Received:
    Lots
    IWA Meetup
     
  3. Adam H

    Adam H Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 2014
    Posts:
    1,725
    Likes Received:
    267
    • Like Like x 1
    • Agree Agree x 1
    • Useful Useful x 1
  4. Edwin

    Edwin Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2005
    Posts:
    9,851
    Likes Received:
    617
    Actually, ALL the main parties (Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems) are fighting to stay in Europe. However, all 3 parties have given "free rein" for individual MPs to campaign for brexit. So tories that want to leave are attacking tories that want to stay, labour MPs that want to leave are taking advantage of the situation to take pot-shots at tories, etc. BTW, the Greens are campaigning to stay in too. You can see the full list of groups on both sides of the debate here (note the overwhelmingly larger number of pro-remain groups over pro-brexit groups!)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campa...om_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016

    Basically, it is in brexit's interest to stir things up and make the situation sound as disharmonious as possible, because fights get much much more media coverage than people agreeing with each other! (It's a bit like the US elections, where Trump makes some new nonsensical statement on a daily basis which wins him another round of headlines)

    Also, as an independent study today showed, the media are biased towards brexit because of the bias of their owners, so it may sound as if the two "sides" of the argument are equally strong or even that brexit has a better "case". Also, since the BBC and other institutions are required to provide "balanced" coverage, they're forced to ALWAYS put a Brexiter up against a Remainer no matter what the story.

    The other issue is that many people who "hate the tories" are presenting the referendum as an opportunity to stick the boot into them by voting "against" the government - that's like somebody who doesn't like biscuits protesting by going on hunger strike.

    -------------------------

    As for the decision itself, well there are dozens of benefits of remaining, and virtually no benefits of leaving (though you wouldn't guess it from the media coverage).
    When you dig into it, you find that the arguments always go along the same lines (one of two patterns):

    PATTERN 1:
    "Remain" camp brings forward a survey, report, white paper or expert in a particular field to provide fact-based data as to why leaving would be worse than staying. Brexit camp rebuffs immediately, by attacking one of:
    A) The motive of the person/group behind the report (never mind that in most cases it's their JOB to provide that kind of analysis; in other words, it would be the worst possible advert for their competence if they made up porkies)
    B) The "factual" nature of the report: brexit claim that "facts" are "opinions" and present a "counter opinion". Much like the people who claim that global warming doesn't exist claim that their "opinion" is as valid as the thousands of scientists who present reams of data to support the fact that it does
    C) The validity of the data point itself as a consideration for remain/brexit decision-making

    PATTERN 2:
    "Brexit" camp make something up, quite often literally out of thin air, that doesn't stand up to fact checking. This is pointed out, often with very deep, comprehensive analysis, yet they continue to lean on the made up "fact" or "statistic" going forward.
    For example, the supposed figure of £350 million a week being diverted to Brussels. That figure doesn't actually take into account:
    - The value of the rebate (lots of cash is returned to the UK each week thanks to its membership of the EU)
    - The value of what the UK gets for its £350 million (brexit attribute a £0 value to this when discussing the £350 million figure)
    - The value of the UK being in the EU (brexit also attribute a £0 value to this when discussing the £350 million figure)
    The brexit side have been called on this time and time again, dozens if not hundreds of times so far, yet they continue to repeat the figure. Why? Because in an age of near-zero attention spans, people aren't studying the issue sufficiently to be able to debunk such spurious claims.
    Another example: Boris Johnson mentioned just the other day that the EU banned bananas being sold in bunches of more than 3. It takes 30s in a supermarket to debunk that notion.

    What does the UK get out of being in Europe?
    - Visa free travel across Europe
    - Relatively strong currency
    - More stable, harmonious relations with its neighbours and participation in collective defense arrangements
    - Cheaper mobile roaming fees (soon to be abolished entirely across the EU)
    - Better worker protection
    - Stronger human rights (even if the UK's trying to wriggle out of this particular directive, that's a separate exercise from remain/brexit)
    - Right to live and work in any other EU country
    - Right to study in any other EU country (more and more important as the price of being a "home" student shoots up; many EU countries still have subsidised or free university education, and the number of UK citizens studying in other EU countries is shooting up as a result)
    - Some say over the future political/economic/legal future of Europe (if the UK leaves it will still be subject to a mass of red tape, like Norway is, only without any say over it)
    - Membership of a massive trading block, benefitting from trade agreements negotiated on a pan-European basis
    - Free medical care in other EU countries with the European Health Insurance Card
    - Over 100,000 trained medical staff from other EU nations boosting the ranks of the NHS (it would be a nightmare visa scenario if the UK left the EU)
    - (That's just off the top of my head - I'm sure there could be another hundred bullets here)

    Basically, if you never ever plan to leave the UK for the rest of your life (even to go on holiday) AND you don't have savings that could be eroded by another economic crash, AND nobody in your family or your extended family might benefit from any of the above points, AND you're old (because a recession is going to hurt growth which will affect pension and job prospects) then MAYBE just maybe brexit could be tempting.

    In every other circumstance - and regardless of how much you might personally hate/loathe Cameron and the tories - the only LOGICAL decision is to vote remain.

    In short, the EU referendum vote should be a reasoned choice, not a protest vote against the government of the day. The latter won't be around very long (in the grand scheme of things) but a vote to leave will hurt the UK for many generations to come.
     
    • Agree Agree x 6
    • Informative Informative x 1
    • Optimistic Optimistic x 1
  5. accelerator United Kingdom

    accelerator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2005
    Posts:
    7,435
    Likes Received:
    115
    Leave, because the closer the government is to you, the better it can represent your interests.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
    • Useful Useful x 1
  6. spiderspider

    spiderspider Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 2013
    Posts:
    660
    Likes Received:
    48
    I've always been a leaver, and I still am now.

    When you hear 'innies' talk, its all may this, and may that. they can't say ANYTHING for definite, as they don't know, nor do the 'outies', so its all just speculation.

    If you hear the 'innies' talk, they make it sound like the instant we vote out, all trade with the continent will stop immediatly!!!!!!!!! Just listen to David 'Lost my way since I lost my LOL friend at the newspaper who lives down the road' Cameron. He gives you the fear (or tries to. Whenever I see him now, the pigs head image makes me chuckle).

    Where as the 'Outies' say that we can make our own trade deals now. Yes it will take time, but being realistic, trade won't stop over night.

    Much speculation is going on, and I'm cheesed off with tax payer money being used on reports that are clearly just rubbish and propaganda. Take that one that came out today, absolute tosh, saying 800,000 jobs will be lost etc. Even media is saying its crap, yet it was produced with tax payer money.

    Way I see it, everything will carry on as it is. Look at Norway, Austria, Turkey, all major trading partners with the EU, and out of it. - I know Turkey have applied

    Look at what the 'innies' said when we left the **Can't remember its exact name..... common money somethingy*** before all those countries went over to the Euro. They all said we would fail and things would be disastrous for us all and trade. What happened? 20 years of growth!

    Important point to remember..... If we leave, Sweden have said they will probably follow. Dutch have a vote planned, and someone else as well (know it was 3 other countries....). So Europe don't want this happening, so are backing that we stay......

    Also, Moodies said that if the UK leaves, Europe will no longer have an A credit rating.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  7. invincible

    invincible Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 2005
    Posts:
    4,203
    Likes Received:
    101
    Thought you wanted to keep politics out of The Bar? :p
     
  8. MikeJDS

    MikeJDS Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 2009
    Posts:
    576
    Likes Received:
    11
    The campaigns from both sides have been very disappointing - Both with nasty characters constantly stealing the spotlight.
    I've tried to switch off to it over the last week or so, as the childish coverage just gets my blood boiling.
    How the government can even get away with having Tories leading both campaigns is a complete joke.
    I really don't understand how they have gotten away with it.
    I think perhaps only after the referendum people will finally wake up to that.
     
  9. Edwin

    Edwin Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2005
    Posts:
    9,851
    Likes Received:
    617
    Actually, it will. Things happen "overnight" all the time. Think of the cigarette ban, for example. From one day to the next, it was illegal to smoke in public places.

    It is true that not everything will change instantly, but some things could easily change very quickly indeed. The remainder of the EU won't want to show a "bad example" to other countries by playing super-favourite with the UK if the UK has voted to get out.

    And the key thing (supported by evidence, as a bit of Googling will readily show) is that it's very easy to undo treaties and other arrangements, but very very very hard to put them back together again. The path towards EU accession for most countries would be 10 years or more, so if the UK decided they'd made a huge mistake they'd be out in the cold for a generation.

    Turkey's a good example, since they're in the headlines at the moment due to baseless brexiter scaremongering: they applied in 1987 and are still very far from meeting all the requirements (over 30 separate steps) to be granted EU member status. http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/candidate-countries/turkey/eu_turkey_relations_en.htm

    So the "outies" hand-wave and pontificate about how the UK could have this deal like country X, that deal like country Y, the other deal like country Z, almost as if they're picking the tastiest chocolates out of a box. The reality is that each of those "deals" is going to require huge amounts of diplomacy and negotiation, and a lot more compromise than the "outies" would ever admit to, and each of them will have to be negotiated separately and at enormous length.

    And in the meantime, the UK's lost the benefits of all the deals it already has, and is having to put the jigsaw puzzle of its relationships with the rest of the world back together one piece of the time.

    Besides, the world is vastly more international than it was in 1975 when the UK joined the Common Market, it's a complete apples-to-oranges non-comparison to equate the two situations.
     
  10. spiderspider

    spiderspider Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 2013
    Posts:
    660
    Likes Received:
    48
    No, it won't. But we can keep this going all night long, with it will, it won't. And i look forward to the day to be able to prove that you to. Everyone in Europe stop trading with the UK???? Get a grip.

    And the cigarette ban? Well that came into force 'overnight' as did every single other law. And like most laws, there was time before it was introduced for people to adjust and get ready for it.
     
  11. Edwin

    Edwin Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2005
    Posts:
    9,851
    Likes Received:
    617
    Another aid for anyone still trying to make up their mind is this incredibly comprehensive compilation of which figures, bodies, government entities and suchlike have endorsed a "remain" or "leave" position. You can bet that a document on such a hot topic will be vigorously edited by both "sides" to the debate (indeed, the page shows a history of very frequent revisions) so it should be nominally "neutral".
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endor...om_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016

    I think the two lists speak for themselves, once you take the time to study them in detail!
     
  12. Edwin

    Edwin Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2005
    Posts:
    9,851
    Likes Received:
    617
    The legal mechanism in place for countries to theoretically leave the EU takes 2 years from when it's triggered (by the vote) until it's effective and the treaty is broken for that country. New treaty arrangements can easily take decades to sort out. There's a big gap in between.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  13. Brassneck United Kingdom

    Brassneck Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2005
    Posts:
    3,092
    Likes Received:
    31
    For those who want a quick guide to what's at stake the BBC have done a pretty good job here - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32810887

    Personally I can see very little benefit (and a lot of risk) to leaving. I wouldn't be surprised if the stay share of the vote ended up around 60%.
     
  14. Brassneck United Kingdom

    Brassneck Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2005
    Posts:
    3,092
    Likes Received:
    31
    I've been told that it could take at least 10 years to negotiate our way out of some EU legislation we have signed up to. It will be a nightmare to sort out if we do leave.
     
  15. wonder_lander United Kingdom

    wonder_lander Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 2009
    Posts:
    1,073
    Likes Received:
    99
    My main area of interest is what it will do to inward investment in to the UK should a leave vote win the day. Would you consider investing £xmillion in to a country undergoing such a fundamental change to how they're ran?

    I do also wonder what affect such infighting will have when the dust settles. Are parties going to be torn apart? How will we take things forward if we're poles apart between what each party wants amongst themselves?
     
  16. Edwin

    Edwin Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2005
    Posts:
    9,851
    Likes Received:
    617
    That's exactly the kind of scenario that international commercial property developers are already writing clauses into the contract to protect against i.e. they're making deals "contingent on a remain vote"...
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fb2999cc-eead-11e5-9f20-c3a047354386.html

    Domestic property investment is also down, and developers fear the leave scenario
    http://www.house-builder.co.uk/issues/index.php?page=article&id=8281&magazine_section=&orig=default

    Meanwhile investors are getting out of property funds because of brexit uncertainty...
    http://citywire.co.uk/money/threadneedle-uk-property-cuts-fund-price-by-5/a912585

    Domestic recruitment and investment has fallen due to the uncertainty
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/04/uk-finance-chiefs-brexit-tops-risk-list
    http://www.bruinfinancial.com/insights/brexit-compounds-headache-around-recruitment/

    Brexit would also trigger an equity sell-off...
    http://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...ainty-in-face-of-eu-referendum-580456001.html
     
  17. wonder_lander United Kingdom

    wonder_lander Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 2009
    Posts:
    1,073
    Likes Received:
    99
    It's like the Nominet .UK implementation on steroids! In that case it was a little domain space, this vote is massive for those of us who live and work in the UK and I fear that the unknown is very far reaching. So far that I don't think the leave campaign can give me anything like the re-assurances I would need to vote leave! #betterthedevilyouknow
     
    • Like Like x 1
  18. AlistairM United Kingdom

    AlistairM Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 2013
    Posts:
    183
    Likes Received:
    16
    I will be voting to leave and will be honest in saying that nothing could sway my vote. Other than Brexit The Movie as somebody else has mentioned I'd also suggest watching any of the numerous debates on youtube. The one below makes the remainers look clueless to be quite honest.



    A couple of other videos on youtube might be of interest to some -

    This Sceptic Isle Peter Hitchens Explains why Britain should leave the EU.
    Peter Hitchens On The EU Being An Continuation of Germany.
     
    • Like Like x 1
    • Winner Winner x 1
  19. martin-s United Kingdom

    martin-s Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 2012
    Posts:
    3,468
    Likes Received:
    270
    I'm 100% out. The scare stories about brexit don't stand up to scrutiny and some of Europe's influences are very damaging.

    What's most interesting is how much the referendum has uncovered Cameron's duplicity. While negotiating for his fairly pathetic changes to our relationship with Europe, he said a number of times that he wouldn't rule out voting to leave. Liar!

    Now he's telling us that leaving will destroy the economy, kill the NHS, and probably start world war 3. (Nice cheap run-around car story though Dave - everyone will like you again because you're a man of the people I'm sure.)

    A vote to remain will see Europe take even more control of our governance. They are working towards a United States of Europe. And more countries are joining. Immigration is a normal thing and to be welcomed, but not at the levels we're currently seeing.

    But there are enough problems with the integration we already have. The Euro is still struggling. The ECHR is still a disaster zone. MEPs are still a law unto themselves (and paid crazy salaries and pensions for it). Not a single set of European accounts has ever been signed off by the auditors. The list goes on.

    European countries are too varied to integrate - economies, cultures, all of it. The path we are on is forcing a rise in far right politics. It's time to come out and secure the countries future under our own governance.

    This is the only chance we have and we have to take it.
     
    • Agree Agree x 3
  20. spiderspider

    spiderspider Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 2013
    Posts:
    660
    Likes Received:
    48

    They can. They can also take months.

    I can also take 3 years to put up some shelving. I can also do it in less than an hour.

    As the UK we have many treaties already with European countries that have absolutely diddly squat to do with the EU. That were negotiated by UK and French / German / Dutch / Danish ministers, that will be totally unaffected by any exit.

    Just posting worse case isn't the way forward, or saying it can take a long time, when it can also take a short time.
     
  21. martin-s United Kingdom

    martin-s Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 2012
    Posts:
    3,468
    Likes Received:
    270
    Agree spiderspider. I'm actually surprised at your take on this Edwin - I had you down as something of an intellectual!
     
    • Like Like x 1
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.