Domain Manage

Is the number of .uk registered names about to reach its peak?

Discussion in 'Nominet General Information' started by Brassneck, Aug 12, 2012.

?

What will happen to size of Nominet Register over the next few years?

  1. Nominet Register will continue to grow over next few years

    57.9%
  2. Nominet Register will stay fairly static over next few years

    15.8%
  3. Nominet Register will begin to fall over next few years

    26.3%
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Brassneck United Kingdom

    Brassneck Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2005
    Posts:
    3,097
    Likes Received:
    29
    Personally, I would have expected the UK register to have peaked a couple of years back. It has continued to grow strongly in recent years - however signs in the last few months of growth slowing significantly.

    Would be interested in views on whether we have now reached the peak size of the UK register, whether this is a temporary blip or whether competition from other Registries / people realising that they don't need to own loads of names etc now mean that the register will see a contraction.

    Having 10 million names on the Register seems quite iconic for Nominet, so would be interesting to see if Nominet respond with marketing activity should the register start to contract.

    There is a stats page here - http://www.nominet.org.uk/intelligence/statistics/registration/

    Stephen
     
  2. Domain Forum

    Acorn Domains Elite Member

    Joined:
    1999
    Messages:
    Many
    Likes Received:
    Lots
     
  3. sdsinc Iceland

    sdsinc Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 2005
    Posts:
    494
    Likes Received:
    9
    Why a contraction ?

    You normally see contractions in the more recent shaky TLDs like .name .tel. And they tend to be temporary, the general trend is up.

    I think .uk will continue to grow, but it could be at a lower pace as the supply of viable domains is drying up.
    10M domains is a milestone but the number of domains per capita can still be higher -look at .nl for example.
     
  4. Brassneck United Kingdom

    Brassneck Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2005
    Posts:
    3,097
    Likes Received:
    29
    I just posted a link to some Nominet stats. Interesting that growth in last 3 months has been much lower than historically. I think a possible decrease in renewal rates could be the driver for this as new regs are fairly stable by the looks of it.
     
  5. Matthew Yates

    Matthew Yates Member

    Joined:
    Jan 2007
    Posts:
    10
    Likes Received:
    2
    There is also the Domain Business stats site from Nominet:
    http://db.nominet.org.uk/
    Although this hasn't been updated for some time. It was supposed to be quarterly but appears to be an annual report again ;)

    Matthew Yates
    Ex. Nominet
     
  6. Brassneck United Kingdom

    Brassneck Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2005
    Posts:
    3,097
    Likes Received:
    29
    Some interesting analysis there.

    Would be good to get some more votes / comments in this thread.

    Stephen.
     
  7. Rob_F United Kingdom

    Rob_F Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2007
    Posts:
    1,484
    Likes Received:
    24
    I think it will continue to grow, but not at the current 10%ish/year – probably around 4-5% this year, imo.

    - Rob
     
  8. Edwin

    Edwin Well-Known Member Exclusive Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2005
    Posts:
    8,460
    Likes Received:
    261
    Of course the growth rate will drop in % terms, because the total universe of names is expanding! That's just math...

    If you have 100 registrations and add 10 in a year, that's 10% growth.

    If you have 10,000 registrations and add 500 in a year that's "only" 5% growth... but it's also 50x more new regs than in the previous scenario even though growth expressed as a percentage is halved!
     
  9. Bailey United Kingdom

    Bailey Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2009
    Posts:
    3,427
    Likes Received:
    73
    Overall i believe domainers holdings will contract - as they look to focus on their better domains (I think the majority on new 'domainer' entrants are becoming a bit more savvy than some of us were at the begining) - so it depends on whether the UK 'end-user' market finally gets a spurt-on to make that growth.

    i voted contraction for the immediate future
     
  10. Matthew Yates

    Matthew Yates Member

    Joined:
    Jan 2007
    Posts:
    10
    Likes Received:
    2
    Agree Edwin, but the key factor for total register size growth of .uk is actually renewals. The move to multi-year will change the numbers but in the past (based on 2 year renewals), there were >5 million renewals a year. Any minor fluctuation in renewal rate had a huge impact on total register size.

    If you isolate just new registrations, growth of new registrations is pretty healthy - predominantly fuelled by low-cost registrar promotions (GBBO/Yell). This is why Nominet really need to focus on retention strategies and work with registrars on improving renewal rates - particularly with those registrars that have given away .uk names for free or at a very low cost.

    As these names are coming up for renewal, renewal rates will drop off a cliff having a major impact on .uk growth. Of course I'm sure the guys in Nominet Towers have some plans/campaigns in place to deal with this.
     
  11. philspray

    philspray New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 2012
    Posts:
    1
    Likes Received:
    0
    Domain Business

    The Domain Business (http://db.nominet.org.uk/)was last updated in March to coincide with the .uk register reaching 10 million registrations. The next update is planned for later this month.

    Phil Spray, Nominet.
     
  12. Bailey United Kingdom

    Bailey Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2009
    Posts:
    3,427
    Likes Received:
    73

    Thanks Phil - Nice to have you viewing (and commenting). - Welcome
     
  13. vizzo United Kingdom

    vizzo Active Member

    Joined:
    May 2010
    Posts:
    405
    Likes Received:
    5
    I voted for continued growth.
    I don't see the domainer industry growing and in fact suspect that it will contract in terms of more people will allow names to drop that they realise are not reaslly worth renewing.
    On the other hand there are still loads of small businesses without their own website who will realise that they need/want an online presence.
     
  14. Bailey United Kingdom

    Bailey Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2009
    Posts:
    3,427
    Likes Received:
    73
    Agree that will happen.

    No where near the growth that we would all like to see. The internet is not new anymore it's not a new concept - I would say a lot of UK businesses have already made their mind-up (in the short to medium term)

    So I believe your pointers actually confirm a contraction
     
  15. websaway United Kingdom

    websaway Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 2007
    Posts:
    4,707
    Likes Received:
    84
    New registrations and renewals will be lower but the secondary market will get stronger as businesses become more aware of the value to their business of quality off the shelf web addresses.
     
  16. Brassneck United Kingdom

    Brassneck Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2005
    Posts:
    3,097
    Likes Received:
    29
    The secondary market could hardly get any weaker! Hope you are right!

    Stephen
     
  17. websaway United Kingdom

    websaway Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 2007
    Posts:
    4,707
    Likes Received:
    84
    I will say though that the best domains will sell better and there are an awful lot that have been sold and go unreported.
     
  18. anthony United Kingdom

    anthony Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 2006
    Posts:
    1,715
    Likes Received:
    28
    To read Nominet's take on things, you'd think they were responsible for reaching this milestone, and others, when in fact it is more a natural result of this country's size and technical standing. Most people don't even know who Nominet are!
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page