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Corona please read very important

Discussion in 'The Bar' started by dougs, Mar 15, 2020.

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  1. bonusmedia

    bonusmedia Well-Known Member

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    I'm too sad to be angry. Bye.
     
  2. Domain Forum

    Acorn Domains Elite Member

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    IWA Meetup
     
  3. Murray

    Murray Well-Known Member

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    Does anyone have any theories about supermarket workers?

    I just googled "supermarket corona death" "tesco corona death" and "supermarket worker dies from corona"

    There's not many articles about shop workers dying, only a few about a single person, none like "x amount have passed away" apart from one US report about 30

    So it is not happening? aren't there deaths? or are news agencies told not to report it for fear of scaring shop workers away from their jobs when they're needed
     
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  4. Edwin

    Edwin Well-Known Member

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    From the Guardian article about that non peer-reviewed study: "Even with the adjusted rate of infection as found by the study, only 3% of the population has coronavirus – that means 97% does not."
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought

    That means that even IF the study's right (huge IF) we're still at the very, very beginning of the crisis.

    We've had 15,000 deaths after only 3% of the population became infected (if we accept for thirty seconds the enormously inflated study data).

    So that means 5,000 deaths per 1% of the population. But that's hospital deaths. Add another 50% for all other deaths (in line with many other countries). Now you're at 7,500 per 1% of the population. (I'm not even counting any deaths from the people who've already caught it but haven't died yet because they're still in the incubation period.)

    How many lots of 7,500 deaths should a progressive twenty-first century country go "oh well, never mind" about? I'd venture zero, but obviously we're already past that now. So how many lots?

    Is it ok that we get to 10% of the population infected and 75,000 deaths? How about 50% of the population and 375,000 deaths?

    These are just insane numbers, even if we take the super-inflated study figures at face value. No rational Government could countenance them.

    And neither should we.
     
  5. LCHappy United Kingdom

    LCHappy Active Member

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    That Guardian story is missing the full story and context behind this Stanford Uni experiment. There is a lot that it doesn't mention, for example the reason they did the test in the first place.

    The reason they did the test was because California was seeing lower death rates than NY. They wondered, why would communties with more links to China end up with less problems and not more, it didn't make sense. The context for the study was the theory that a version of CV19 passed through last year and was misdiagnosed as a really bad flu season, when in fact it was really CV19.

    It wasn't done to find what percentage had herd immunity, it was done to test the theory that CV19 had been through already.

    This is the reports on the study, before the study reported https://abc7.com/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity-in-california-doctor-shares-his-thoughts/6093912/

    Also one from Cambridge yesterday finding grounds to substantiate that theory.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1...wuhan-cambridge-university-scientists-covid19

    It was here earlier than thought in one strain or another.
     
  6. Murray

    Murray Well-Known Member

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    @Edwin what do you think draws you into Brexit and Corona topics and how do you feel that might effect your biases when researching/reporting?
     
  7. Edwin

    Edwin Well-Known Member

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    I don't have a direct answer, but let's consider the stats.

    13,918 people have died of coronavirus in hospital in England.
    https://www.england.nhs.uk/statisti...ID-19-all-announced-deaths-18-April-2020.xlsx

    Of those 13,918 people, 7,212 were aged 80+.

    That leaves a maximum of 6,706 victims of working age (in practice many people in 60-79 bracket won't be working any more, so this will be an overestimate - but let's gloss over that for simplicity).

    UK supermarkets employ 1,109,893 people.
    https://www.ibisworld.com/united-kingdom/market-research-reports/supermarkets-industry/

    32,985,000 people are employed in the UK.
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan...mploymentandemployeetypes/timeseries/mgrz/lms

    That means that supermarket employees make up 3.36% of all employees.

    And that means a theoretical maximum of 225 deaths from amongst those working in supermarkets. (Assuming they're not going to be more likely to die than other types of worker.)

    Of course, the original 6,706 number is way too large because it includes everyone who died of COVID-19 aged 0-79. But this at least gets us an "order of magnitude" idea of what might have happened.
     
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  8. Edwin

    Edwin Well-Known Member

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    I am explicitly not going to answer that. Let's not start stuff related to Brexit again here, please. Thanks! :)
     
  9. Admin

    Admin Administrator Staff Member

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    This article is only available to subscribers :(
     
  10. Admin

    Admin Administrator Staff Member

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    Murrays comment was about you not Brexit, i think that is clear
     
  11. Edwin

    Edwin Well-Known Member

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    Ok. Keeping it general: I get interested in certain subjects and I read a lot, then I read more, then occasionally I really start digging deeper into them. (Obvious government incompetence seems to be a very good fuel to encourage that extra research spurt.)

    That's probably the closest answer I can give.
     
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  12. Edwin

    Edwin Well-Known Member

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    FYI, I will not be responding to any of your posts from here on out. I mention that for clarity because we had been mid-way through a discussion about the Stanford study.

    I refuse to engage from here on out with anyone who can be so deliberately provocative in the middle of a crisis as you've just set out. Actively encouraging others to flout the arrangements meant to protect us all? It's disgraceful, plain and simple.
     
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  13. websaway United Kingdom

    websaway Well-Known Member

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    In the slang of psychology, the colloquial term control freak describes a person with a personality disorder characterized by undermining other people, usually by way of controlling behaviour manifested in the ways that he or she acts to dictate the order of things in a social situation.
     
  14. newguy United Kingdom

    newguy Well-Known Member

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    Yes, this is a concern due to the implications if immunity doesn't last long. if immunity lasts for say a couple of years, in all likelihood Covid-19 will peter out over time. If it's just a few months though, there will possibly never be herd immunity. Hopefully the former scenario is what comes to pass. That and work on vaccines and other treatments here and abroad is ongoing, so I hope we manage to have some kind of meaningful breakthrough that diminishes the impact this virus is having on the world.
     
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  15. LCHappy United Kingdom

    LCHappy Active Member

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    Then what are we waiting in lock down for? If antibodies don't work, a vaccine won't either.

    Are they not outside hospitals clapping themselves in their thousands?

    People were socially distancing fine in the week or so up to the lock down, before Professor Morgan and Imperial College got involved.

    I don't understand how others inside their homes due to a lock down are going to catch it from me being outside. If they adhere to a lock down, we would never meet
     
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  16. bonusmedia

    bonusmedia Well-Known Member

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  17. LCHappy United Kingdom

    LCHappy Active Member

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    Edwin, you don't debate with people anyway, you post and run. It doesn't matter whether insult you or not, you don't debate people. If you think you have some sort of self certified moral superiority over those of us that disagree with you then fine, I disagree. There is nothing morally or intellectually superior in people dying through poverty. The number of times you claimed that the UK is doomed because of a 2% fall in GDP due to Brexit, but 35% fall due to CV is fine.
     
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  18. bonusmedia

    bonusmedia Well-Known Member

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    Admirable self-reflection old chap
     
  19. LCHappy United Kingdom

    LCHappy Active Member

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  20. LCHappy United Kingdom

    LCHappy Active Member

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    I disagree, Those of us that had it, knew we had not had that before and we commented on it at the time. I read a blog post the other day, someone limited google to Dec 31st 2019 and went searching for "flu like symptoms". Then tried it for 2018, and there was nothing on the same scale. Try it and see. I think there was a 1000% spike in flu like cases in Australia in 2019 according to a Sky news article for July 2019.
     
  21. LCHappy United Kingdom

    LCHappy Active Member

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    They are running at 60-70% capacity in ICU, if we open up the doors now, on R0 models of 3.0 it would be 3 months before they reached capacity. Whilst we are at 60-70% or whatever it is, we have shut down Chemo and other treatments. This wasn't the plan at the start.

    There are quite a few different hospitals now doing it. I don't mind them doing it, but please, they should not at the same time be painting a picture of being stressed to the max when they can thousands can go outside to clap.

    I live in the West country, you make a a fair point if you live in London.

    If you explain reasons for an ongoing lock down, and they are clear and add up, and ask me to do something then chances are I will do it. If you do what Matt Hancock did last week and say we aren't adult enough to handle an exit strategy then I'm going out.

    I'll give people an example, why should I be on lock down, ruin my livelihood, when the Government is allowing flights with thousands of people on to land here each day?
     
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