Corona please read very important

[crazihos]

Children catch the coronavirus at almost the same rate as adults (see link below) - but just don't show the symptons as much. So schools will become one large petri dish. Children infecting each other, then all the parents, and the teachers. Two weeks of this will, by far, outweigh any short term benefit.

https://www.livescience.com/can-kids-get-coronavirus.html

They've asked over 70s to isolate from the weekend. So if from that point onwards the schools remain open then the kids will then mainly be passing the virus on to their parents. This spreads it mainly amongst the 2 age groups that can fight it best.

The government need the majority of the people who are unlikely to die from it to catch it and recover anyway so perhaps they see the above as the best way to do it?

There's a wonderful article on assumed spread and recovery here - it shows how the managed spread and social distancing policy may be very sensible in the long run. Fingers crossed it goes well!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?itid=hp_hp-banner-low_virus-simulator520pm:homepage/story-ans

 

[dee]

I think it's because schools aren't just for learning, they're also a free daycare so parents can go out and work

I'm sure there are a lot of doctors and nurses with young children that can't be left alone but they will be needed at work

What do you do, leave them with their grandparents? that seems like not the best idea atm

No great options any which way

Things will ramp up rapidly now, but that extra week or two for the NHS is vital.

This....

It's all about delaying / staggering the curve right now to try and keep it within the limits the system can deal with. This happening either really quickly or slightly slower ... but its happening. Slightly slower is better all round. Less people will die.

 

[Siusaidh]

This paper is about the most recent assessment and in fact I believe it informed some of the decisions taken on Monday:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus

Sobering, and on top of all this let's hope we don't have a global financial crisis.

Longing for life to get back to normal.

 

[newguy]

"ROME - "The vast majority of people infected with Covid-19, between 50 and 75%, are completely asymptomatic but represent a formidable source of contagion". The Professor of Clinical Immunology of the University of Florence Sergio Romagnani writes this at the top of the Tuscany Region, in anticipation of a strong increase in cases also in the Region, on the basis of the study on the inhabitants of Vo 'Euganeo where the 3000 inhabitants of the country are been subjected to swab.

The immunologist explains that the data provided by the study carried out on all the inhabitants of Vo 'Euganeo highlight two very important information: "the percentage of infected people, even if asymptomatic, in the population is very high and represents the majority of cases above all, but not only that, among young people; and the isolation of asymptomatics is essential to be able to control the spread of the virus and the severity of the disease ".

Sounds like good news and bad all rolled into one... Good in that the death rate is likely somewhat lower than thought if so many people have it without even knowing.. and bad in that if there are many more asymptomatic out there, it's hard for anyone to avoid it in the long run.

 

[Hay]

It is about to get a whole lot worse, and its going to push a lot of people to breaking point, hopefully everyone pulls through ok, i think the biggest concern from what i can gather is people are going to struggle financially due to no work and the country heading towards lockdown.. Hopefully you all do ok.

 

[webber]

i think the biggest concern from what i can gather is people are going to struggle financially due to no work and the country heading towards lockdown

I agree. I'm not worried about death or illness, but about the economic impact this will have on people, businesses and national budgets.
US senators are talking about paying every citizen $1,000.
France is not giving details yet but pledged €300bln to help people and businesses (about €4,000/person)
Nordic countries have promised they'll pay 50-80% of the salary of those who lose their jobs.
We'll be paying for this for many years to come...

 

[Hay]

I agree. I'm not worried about death or illness, but about the economic impact this will have on people, businesses and national budgets.
US senators are talking about paying every citizen $1,000.
France is not giving details yet but pledged €300bln to help people and businesses (about €4,000/person)
Nordic countries have promised they'll pay 50-80% of the salary of those who lose their jobs.
We'll be paying for this for many years to come...

If we dont go into recession i will eat my hat

 

[LCHappy]

If we dont go into recession i will eat my hat

Never under estimate just how much these figures are rigged. If they try to say no recession here then I'm afraid the numbers will lose all credibility. I'm saying 20% drop in GDP.

 

[dee]

I'm saying 20% drop in GDP.

wow...... probably right

 

[Edwin]

This account of why the government's approach suddenly changed is interesting, and scary. The original strategy would have seen 260,000 deaths (and in some iterations of the underlying model, 500,000) because the NHS would have been overwhelmed many times over.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...licy-why-uks-coronavirus-strategy-has-changed

A recession? I think sadly that's a nailed-on guarantee. There will be hundreds of thousands out of work before the end of this week, because they are employed in untenable positions (theatres, hospitality industry, gallery and museum staff, etc. Also paradoxically cleaners and other staff that depend on visiting many separate households to earn their living). But that fuels lower demand, which exacerbates an already very fragile situation, and the spiral continues.

The next 12-18 months are about surviving. It's no good thinking that life will continue with even a semblance of normality. The adjustment period will be very tough for everyone, and unbelievably tough for those facing immediate dismissal because of circumstances largely beyond anyone's control.

 

[Hay]

And if that wasn't enough... Carphone warehouse closing all 500+ branches and putting 3,000 people out of work... I suspect there will be a lot more businesses announcing similar statements.

 

[keys]

At best, the outlook is gloomy for a few months, worse for anyone with an acute medical condition needing attention.

Some reports from China are encouraging. The huge makeshift hospitals in Wuhan are already closed. Shanghai was in total lockdown when only a few cases had been identified. Schools remain shut, but people are gradually returning to work.

The airport is open but all arriving passengers are immediately sent to quarantine for 14 days. If they are residents they need to go home immediately. All others are taken to government approved accommodation.

 

[3gmedia]

It is about to get a whole lot worse, and its going to push a lot of people to breaking point, hopefully everyone pulls through ok, i think the biggest concern from what i can gather is people are going to struggle financially due to no work and the country heading towards lockdown.. Hopefully you all do ok.

This is one of my concerns, if I don't work I don't get paid and I don't want to default on any of my financial responsibilities. Who would have factored in a global pandemic, last time it happened was 100 years ago but I'm sure we will see the odds shorten on this as the global population increases.

 

[websaway]

This account of why the government's approach suddenly changed is interesting, and scary. The original strategy would have seen 260,000 deaths (and in some iterations of the underlying model, 500,000) because the NHS would have been overwhelmed many times over.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...licy-why-uks-coronavirus-strategy-has-changed

A recession? I think sadly that's a nailed-on guarantee. There will be hundreds of thousands out of work before the end of this week, because they are employed in untenable positions (theatres, hospitality industry, gallery and museum staff, etc. Also paradoxically cleaners and other staff that depend on visiting many separate households to earn their living). But that fuels lower demand, which exacerbates an already very fragile situation, and the spiral continues.

The next 12-18 months are about surviving. It's no good thinking that life will continue with even a semblance of normality. The adjustment period will be very tough for everyone, and unbelievably tough for those facing immediate dismissal because of circumstances largely beyond anyone's control.

The only comfort I take from this is how wrong you were about the immediate consequences of leaving the EU.

 

[BREWSTERS]

Before panicking, why not learn something about what this supposed threat is ?

And consider this. What better cover for a pre-determined financial crash than what we're seeing now? No one would blame the banks for this one now will they?

Cui bono?

Question everything.

 

[Murray]

The next 12-18 months are about surviving. It's no good thinking that life will continue with even a semblance of normality. The adjustment period will be very tough for everyone, and unbelievably tough for those facing immediate dismissal because of circumstances largely beyond anyone's control.

Can we get back to Corona and not just more Brexit stuff?

 

[LCHappy]

This account of why the government's approach suddenly changed is interesting, and scary. The original strategy would have seen 260,000 deaths (and in some iterations of the underlying model, 500,000) because the NHS would have been overwhelmed many times over.

No they haven't changed approach. It is exactly as it was before if you had bothered to listen to them. They said they would recalculate the numbers daily, they have, they said they would need to implement new measures when those numbers said they should and they are. I repeat, zero has changed.

Let the scientists do their job.

 

[websaway]

Reasons to be cheerful

We are going into the summer, if we were going into winter it would be even more depressing.
Utilities should not be affected so our home comforts are to remain.
We have a majority government, so no stupid games by minorities hoping to disrupt progress.
We have a history of being able to cope with adversity and we can call on our resolve to overcome this inconvenience.
Our economy is better than has been for a decade or more so will be able to absorb at least some of the hurt.

Chins up

 

[Murray]

Reasons to be cheerful

100% we can't always choose what happens to us in life, the only choice is how we react to it

 

[Nigel]

Desperate situation in many schools already. Government's decision to keep them open looks like a major mistake There is a sense of 'rising panic', and much staff sickness already.

One Headteacher has said

"If I close my school tomorrow to avoid a mass gathering are you coming for me @BorisJohnson?#schoolclosure."

He told the BBC he had been moved to question the policy due to the inconsistency between advice about mass gatherings and schools remaining open.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-51910835