Corona please read very important

Todays figures ( Sweden's extrapolated to match the UK population)

UK - 38659 cases - 684 deaths
Sweden - 40114 cases - 165 deaths

Sweden is not in lock down.

 

Maybe a better comparison would be between Sweden and its neighbour, Denmark, which is in lockdown?

Denmark (6m population) 139 deaths
Sweden (10m population) 333 deaths

https://www.ssi.dk/aktuelt/sygdomsudbrud/coronavirus

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

 

If you extrapolate the Denmark figure to equal Sweden's population (and these are total deaths, not daily as I was referencing above)

Denmark - 7124 cases - 257 deaths

And the same to equal UK population;

Denmark - 45504 cases - 1638 deaths - in lock down

Sweden - 38720 cases - 2121 deaths

UK - 38659 cases - 3605 deaths - in lock down

 

We both know that number of confirmed cases is a product of testing so they are a less accurate indicator than deaths.

And as I pointed out, Sweden without lockdown has more deaths than Denmark with lockdown.

I'm not in a position to know which will turn out to be definitively best - lockdown or Swedish-style "not in lockdown". My gut feeling though is that cherry-picking stats to support opinion doesn't get us any closer to that answer.

 

What

This. It's understandable that countries have differing approaches, but this is a new situation where buying time can be very valuable. As such, the lockdown is a prudent move out of the options available. Also, it's fairly likely that Sweden will eventually change tack and bring it more restrictions. Covid-19 is very contagious and the numbers will start ramping up making a change of policy likely, at least in cities.

 

Not cherry-picked....Sweden is the only country in Europe that isn't under full lock down (I think) so that's why I'm comparing that to the UK.

Also, 'confirmed' cases also include 'presumptive positive' cases (as stated by Johns Hopkins Uni and confirmed by the CDC - links on a previous post). Hence the numbers have been going up since last week the the Gov stated they were changing the way they compile the numbers.

 

Over the last 24 hours, the coronavirus alone killed about 50% as many people in the UK as would have been expected to die of all causes on a normal April 3rd.

There is no conceivable way that it only killed those who "would have died anyway". In the words of Boris Johnson, people are “[losing] loved ones before their time”.

There is also no comparison in any way, shape or form with the regular flu we experience every year.

I hope, no matter where you stand on the specifics, that much at least should be beyond dispute by now.

Many parts of the UK will see a mini heatwave this weekend. Please stay indoors (or in your own garden). Stay safe. Stay alive - and keep others alive too. It's a team effort!

 

To me, it looks like cherry-picking because you have chosen to compare Sweden to the UK on headline figures without taking into account any other differences between the countries. If you had chosen Denmark and Sweden you couldn't be arguing the same case.

To repeatedly say UK with lockdown has more deaths than Sweden without lockdown is also misleading. The UK isn't in total lockdown and Sweden is not without restrictions (or people working from home without compulsion). Both nations have shades of lockdown.

 

I believe the still is some doubt. There are some in there who would not have died, that is true, but how many? Nobody knows.

How many extra deaths is there now compared to this time last week, this time last year? Those stats will be out in a week or so. Would you agree that if those numbers are not up, then this is not some extraordinary?

For me, if more than the normal deaths of 1900 per day are dying, then there is something going on. If not, then there isn't. Right now, there is zero data anywhere that shows the above normal number of deaths.

 

If you want to kill off this thread, fine go ahead.

You have the power to do it right there at your keyboard just by throwing out more nonsense about how everything to do with this crisis is being faked, manipulated and lied about. That is pure selfishness, but you're entitled to be selfish if you want to. Nobody can stop you.

But I think (much of) this thread serves a genuinely useful purpose. And I hope you will choose to see sense and let it continue by backing off and parking all further wild allusions going forward. Take them somewhere else. But don't air them here.

The entire world economy has stopped. 10 million out of work in the USA in the last 2 weeks. 80% fewer international flights. Nearly a million more Universal Credit participants here in the UK. Everything you can think of closed, postponed or cancelled.



Now either the mainstream science approach taken by every single country (except Sweden - now never mention it again) is wrong, and everyone crashed the economy worse than during the Great Depression for nothing.

Or, you know what, there really is something to this coronavirus.

Problem is, it's a totally unequal bet.

If it turns out people overreacted, we'll know fairly soon and things can start getting back towards normalish with a LOT of new Government debt and help. Political heads will roll, but the cascade of "deaths before their time" will quickly come to a halt.

But if they didn't overreact at all you'll be on your knees thankful that people took action, and acted strongly. Because the alternative was a level of death that makes me shudder even to think about. The clampdown means that many many people may get to hug their loved ones tight in future who otherwise wouldn't have been able to.

 

I think the most successful reaction at times like this will inevitably look like an overreaction on account of how many lives it saves. Forming a strategy at times like this is both vital and a thankless task.

Aside from everything else, I think the lockdown brought a realisation of how serious this situation is to many people who seemed to think it was no different to the flu. Hard months ahead, but we'll get through it and there is an opportunity to learn lots of lessons along the way.

 

I still think it's still about the level of flu, just we're seeing what it would be like in a world without flu jabs

 

I will provide the conspiracy argument

They're doing it to pass new authoritarian laws

to force vaccinations on people

to squeeze out all the smaller companies and leave only the big boys

so people become dependent on state help so they're more docile

Any independent media that questions the official line will be called dangerous and shut down and people will applaud

So they can blame physical currency for the spread and do away with it completely so money can be better tracked digitally

etc etc

Probably dozens more ones I'm not aware of that people speculate on

 

UK because we live here and are being restricted massively.

Sweden because it is famously avoiding anywhere near full lock down. End of.

If I was cherry picking I'm sure I could've picked a more disparate pairing.

 

If you think all this nonsense is harmless, please bear in mind that people are now competing to burn down phone masts because they believe CV is caused by 5G.

 

Just because it's what you believe, doesn't mean it's correct...you could finish off that section in red by saying 'because I'm right and you're wrong' and it wouldn't come across any more arrogant.

And those events...do you not think they were put under pressure to cancel? Do you not think that restaurants pubs and small shops etc have only shut because they have to?

Finally, Government debt, is our debt...and the millions of people that'll be put out of work, the hundreds of thousands of small business owners who've had their life's work crushed, will not be thinking the way you are.

 

I like apples

 

I'd agree that the flu is elderly is no doubt a death sentence for many too. What's not often reported though due to the fact that they're the ones that eventually pull through, is that about a third of those in serious condition are under 45. This certainly isn't typical of the flu, Without slowing the rate of those ill at any one time many of these people wouldn't survive either.

 

Where do you find the stats for hospitalisations/ages an where do you find the stats for flu to compare?

 

Austria: In Austria, too, „corona deaths“ are apparently defined „very liberally“, as the media report: „Do you also count as a corona death if you are infected with the virus but die of something else? Yes, say Rudi Anschober and Bernhard Benka, members of the Corona Task Force in the Ministry of Health. „There is a clear rule at present: Died with the corona virus or died from the corona virus both count for the statistics.“ No difference is made as to what the patient actually died of. In other words, a 90-year-old man who dies with a fracture of the femoral neck and becomes infected with corona in the hours prior to his death is also counted as corona death. To name but one example.“
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/