Corona please read very important

I have never read a more depressing article in my entire life...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/21/disaster-waiting-to-happen-visitors-flock-to-skegness

We are about to zoom ahead of Italy's curve, and doom tens of thousands more people. It's a nailed-on certainty than many of the same brainless idiots who flocked to the beaches yesterday will get together with their mothers today.

The pandemic is such an odd sort of catastrophe, because there's an exponential multiplier to the "bad choices" people make that isn't present in any other sort of situation.

I despair, both of people - and of our Government sitting on its hands and watching when it could be acting.

 

Just listened to an interview with the Leader of the opposition. If any evidence were needed we see now the person is brain dead. The British public are no political fools.

 

Elderly patient has stage 4 cancer - has been battling it for years and has days to live. While in the ICU they are also tested for CV and it is positive. They pass away two days later. Their death is counted as a CV death.

Elderly patient has stage 4 cancer - has been battling it for years and has days to live. While in the ICU they are also tested for flu and it is positive. They pass away two days later. Their death is counted as cancer.

In both cases, the death certificate will likely state cancer...but the numbers being put out re CV include the first one as a CV death.

Therefore, the figures are skewed.

BTW, patients in end of life care aren't routinely tested for other issues...until the last few weeks that is, when they're being tested for CV, nothing else. ​

It appears that everyone is assuming that the people with pre-existing conditions are all at home and managing their diseases just fine until CV comes along and kills them?

Ask yourselves, how many scenarios like the above are skewing the figures...I reckon it's a very large percentage.

 

Your opinion on this is very much an outlier result.

That's not to say it should be completely ignored (and people are giving you a fair shout) but that on balance it's unlikely to provide the answer we're looking for.

 

I do hope you're including the dentist and his wife who flocked to the beach with their dogs as brainless idiots?

To paraphrase him: "My wife and I took the dogs to a deserted (?) beach, and lots of other people were there too...disgusting!".

BTW, you can have your wish now - I've backed up everything I've stated with highly credible sources, and yet some claim everything I've put is without basis. I don't know what to say about that...I'm not going to repeat everything whenever someone makes that claim.

So, you can get back to your singular sided 'discussion' everyone without fear of the nasty man challenging your beliefs. I'm out!

Just be prepared to see the figures downgraded in the future.

I'll leave you with a few quotes by Franklin Roosevelt:

"A reactionary is a somnambulist, walking backwards"
"The truth is found where men are free to pursue it"
"There are as many opinions as there are experts"
"The only thing we have to fear is fear itself"
And perhaps the most pertinent:
"In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way"

 

You didn't answer my question. I didn't ask you to include covid-19 as part of your response.
This helps prove my point that you purposely skew context to suit your agenda.

 

This guy makes a lot of sense and his piece last week turned out to be spot on.
There are some good reasons to be hopeful there and also to support aggressive action.

I think we have to expect we'll follow others into progressively more aggressive enforcement measures. We can't get a clear view of the effect here for a few weeks after they're implemented and it does look like we're in for a spike now whatever we do, but at least that ought to help focus minds a bit.

And at least we are now switching to suppression, even if it's being done pretty gradually, by asking, then telling, then enforcement. I have to assume they have good reasons for that, maybe it's about lessening the initial shock, or building consent, or more cynically maybe the best outcome models still involve more cases early - if not quite at the level of the 'herd immunity' strategy.

My instinct is buying as much time as possible to learn more makes the most sense. South Korea's experience in that article is really encouraging, I hope increased testing/tracing/containment can work that well here.

At best it's been a hybrid mitigation/suppression strategy over the week, a gradual turning down of the infection rate, in theory. I don't know level of control of it they can realistically expect. If you took the position that services will inevitably be overwhelmed at some point anyway, there might have been logic in allowing for a smaller, controlled spike first, if it's actually even possible to manage it to that degree.

Some decisions may prove to be unfortunate in the long run but I really don't envy any key decision makers right now. There's really no time to decide, there aren't any acceptable options or good outcomes and the impact of every choice is off all the scales. There's no established procedure for switching half the economy off and on again.

We can't prevent what's already happening, we know the time lag etc. People may not take lockdowns seriously if we lockdown and nothing much seems to happen, so I am hoping that the shock of the reality at the frontlines in the next few weeks will reduce a lot of the problems with ignorance, denial, compliance etc. If the large majority co-operate to help enforce the measures, even just through ostracising risky/selfish behaviour, then maybe that helps minimize use of force, so the police can do their jobs and the army can focus on logistics and construction etc rather than herding cats.

If we have to play lockdown whack-a-mole for the next 12-18 months, at least it's encouraging that shorter periods of lockdown could be workable.

 

Unfortunately that also comes with risks. They have stopped Chemo across a lot of the NHS. This is basically a death sentence to a lot of people. These deaths won't ever be counted in the Covid-19 stats. At some point there has to be a balance. I don't know where that is, I'm glad I'm not the one making the calls.

I don't think the Chinese gave the rest of the world the right numbers though.If they did this, and it led to flawed models being built across the world then they should pay heavily for that.

 

Thousands of people pouring into Richmond Park today, because it's sunny. It's not as if there's a pandemic on, or anything...
https://www.newsflare.com/video/345...ark-despite-advice-not-to-mingle?jwsource=twi

If it wasn't going to kill the rest of us too, I'd be in favour of throwing my hands up at this point and saying "let them die". But it's like trying to wrestle the person with the chainsaw on your own lifeboat - if they cut the bottom out, we all sink.

 

Someone on twitter made the point that some of these families of 4+ may live in one homes with one room. We have to try to look at it from their point of view too to try and understand why they choose the things they do.

 

Another good collection of resources: https://coronavirustechhandbook.com/home

 

Looks like going to be the death of the stupid, but they are going to take many of them with us........But when the stupid are gone there will be hopefully more hospital beds if we are live.....silver lining??? Self isolate and stay safe....hopefully see you on the other side

 

Mate an extreme athlete mid 40's just had it and getting better Says worse thing he has ever had could hardly breathe...he was told to stay home as not ill enough to be in hospital.

 

Nadine Dorris's 84 year old mum just laughed it off and wondering what all the fuss was about. Perhaps it is the sheer randomness of the severity that is the truly scary part of this. It's almost like there are two different CoronaViruses doing the rounds.

Pictures coming out of Spain now are not great, I don't think there can be any doubt that this is something maybe worse than what was being expected. Myself and my husband are staying in, have been for the last 3-4 days. Both got a tiny little niggle at the back of the throat, quite tired, almost jet lagged but no fever or anything so chances of this being it for us are low. Told friends and family to 100% not come near.

What about these idiots

https://twitter.com/TPlattss/status/1241707208452321280?s=20

 

My views from the 16th are now gathering a degree of momentum among the media. I could not understand and still don't why masks were not nationally distributed. If a mask reduces risk by 1% then I would have wore one from day one.

 

Masks have to be disposed of every day.

The NHS can't get enough masks to protect its own staff safely, let alone give them out to everyone else.

In countries that have a regular "custom" of mask wearing during flu/hayfever season (e.g. Japan) and where therefore the stock is dozens or hundreds of times greater than in the UK, it has been one element (of many) that has contributed to slowing the spread of the virus.

 

Prize of the day for Stupid...



No, not just the people still using the Underground...

TFL for slashing the number of Tube trains running.

Obviously, the fewer trains are running, the more crushed each carriage will be.