IF you only read one article on Coronavirus, read this one, grab a mug of tea .... you might like this
@Edwin
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
This guy makes a lot of sense and his piece last week turned out to be spot on.
There are some good reasons to be hopeful there and also to support aggressive action.
I think we have to expect we'll follow others into progressively more aggressive enforcement measures. We can't get a clear view of the effect here for a few weeks after they're implemented and it does look like we're in for a spike now whatever we do, but at least that ought to help focus minds a bit.
And at least we are now switching to suppression, even if it's being done pretty gradually, by asking, then telling, then enforcement. I have to assume they have good reasons for that, maybe it's about lessening the initial shock, or building consent, or more cynically maybe the best outcome models still involve more cases early - if not quite at the level of the 'herd immunity' strategy.
My instinct is buying as much time as possible to learn more makes the most sense. South Korea's experience in that article is really encouraging, I hope increased testing/tracing/containment can work that well here.
At best it's been a hybrid mitigation/suppression strategy over the week, a gradual turning down of the infection rate, in theory. I don't know level of control of it they can realistically expect. If you took the position that services will inevitably be overwhelmed at some point anyway, there might have been logic in allowing for a smaller, controlled spike first, if it's actually even possible to manage it to that degree.
Some decisions may prove to be unfortunate in the long run but I really don't envy any key decision makers right now. There's really no time to decide, there aren't any acceptable options or good outcomes and the impact of every choice is off all the scales. There's no established procedure for switching half the economy off and on again.
We can't prevent what's already happening, we know the time lag etc. People may not take lockdowns seriously if we lockdown and nothing much seems to happen, so I am hoping that the shock of the reality at the frontlines in the next few weeks will reduce a lot of the problems with ignorance, denial, compliance etc. If the large majority co-operate to help enforce the measures, even just through ostracising risky/selfish behaviour, then maybe that helps minimize use of force, so the police can do their jobs and the army can focus on logistics and construction etc rather than herding cats.
If we have to play lockdown whack-a-mole for the next 12-18 months, at least it's encouraging that shorter periods of lockdown could be workable.