UK Leaves the EU - What happens next?

[martin-s]

The thing is Edwin, the leavers amongst us would have felt similarly hard done by - and with a similar strength of feeling - if things had gone the other way.

I'm not sure if you genuinely don't accept that?

You speak about this whole topic in the entirely black/white way that you see it, taking down to leavers and expecting us to empathise. That leavers must be completely stupid to believe what they do.

But this isn't a black/white topic - there are 100 shades of grey. We're not stupid, we just have different values and priorities to yours.

 

[Edwin]

The thing is Edwin, the leavers amongst us would have felt similarly hard done by - and with a similar strength of feeling - if things had gone the other way.

I'm not sure if you genuinely don't accept that?

You speak about this whole topic in the entirely black/white way that you see it, taking down to leavers and expecting us to empathise. That leavers must be completely stupid to believe what they do.

But this isn't a black/white topic - there are 100 shades of grey. We're not stupid, we just have different values and priorities to yours.

In a nutshell, your response demonstrates the gulf between Leave and Remain.

The Remain camp isn't (just) feeling hard done by. We had and continue to have a massively overwhelming weight of expertise from just about every conceivable field that combines to confirm our view that Brexit will do much more harm than good. That's not the same as saying there's nothing positive to be found from leaving the EU, but simply that on balance there will be a vast amount more negatives than there will be positives.

I don't have to "believe" that. Facts continue to work in the absence of belief.

The facts are that the EU-affected markets are tanking, the pound has cratered (which will push inflation higher), pensions have been hit, annuitities are at an all-time low, grants and investments are being cancelled, jobs are being lost, firms are going bankrupt, EU staff are looking for other options, consumer sentiment plunged at a 21 year high pace, property starts are down, property funds are cancelling redemptions, etc. etc. Do your own Googling and you will be able to confirm every single point I just listed.

And all of that in just two weeks when (in theory) nothing has changed... What on earth willl the UK be like in a month, two months, six months - let alone the 2 years of turmoil and uncertainty that Article 50 will trigger?!

No wonder we're almost catatonic with despair! It's like half the country is aware of an impending disaster and the other half are skipping around happy but oblivious.

I will repeat the most important point for emphasis: facts are facts. They don't need "belief". Listen to the rhetoric coming from Leave right now today and it's pretty much still all "hope", "believe", etc. with nothing "real" whatsover to back up any of their statements.

 

[Edwin]

BTW, there are close parallels between the Brexit argument and the climate change argument.

Both have an overwhelming preponderance of expert opinion on one side of the argument, and those on the other side of both will vehemently overlook and deny any and all evidence, no matter how strong, that doesn't fit their "niche" view of the world.

Those on the other side of both arguments seize on every little scrap of data that "breaks" the overall consensus as somehow repudiating it (it doesn't!). For example, climate change deniers get worked up about a colder winter, a freak snowstorm, anything like that, to spin the narrative that global warming's not occurring. But global warming, like economic and societal collapse, is not a continuum. There will be peaks and troughs, but the underlying trend is undeniable.

The same for Brexit. It is possible (as some of the tabloids have been doing) to focus laser-like on very selective data points like the FTSE 100 being up since Brexit (ignoring WHY it's up, because most of the listed companies do more business overseas than they do in the UK and so their earnings will be artificially boosted by the weaker pound) or a handful of luxury brands seeing their sales to tourists spike, and spin that into a "where's the apocalypse we were promised?" narrative. Especially when combined with a wilful distortion of the Remain camp's warnings (Remain never stated everything everywhere would collapse immediately)

 

[Edwin]

There was a toxic line of reasoning used in a number of the debates and many of the interviews leading up to the referendum (most notably, but not exclusively, by Farage). A simple sentence, hiding a wealth of dangers:

"Let's agree to meet in the middle."

Variants of the above were deployed when some of the more fanciful Leave statements were completely debunked. Like the £350 million a week nonsense. "Ok, you say £150 million, we say £350 million, so let's meet in the middle and call it £250 million."

Facts don't work like that! You can't average out a truth and a lie and get a "better estimate". Yet this happened again and again.

"You say Turkey won't join the EU for decades and decades? We think it will join tomorrow. So let's meet in the middle and say it will be in the next 5-10 years."

"You say Brexit means doom and gloom and poverty and economic collapse. We think it means rainbows and unicorns. So let's meet in the middle and say it will be broadly neutral."

Grrrrr. It's such a deceitful mind-game that refuting it is like trying to wrestle a jelly! On the surface, it sounds so "fair" and "friendly", but nothing could be further from the truth.

 

[websaway]

In a nutshell, your response demonstrates the gulf between Leave and Remain.

The Remain camp isn't (just) feeling hard done by. We had and continue to have a massively overwhelming weight of expertise from just about every conceivable field that combines to confirm our view that Brexit will do much more harm than good. That's not the same as saying there's nothing positive to be found from leaving the EU, but simply that on balance there will be a vast amount more negatives than there will be positives.

I don't have to "believe" that. Facts continue to work in the absence of belief.

The facts are that the EU-affected markets are tanking, the pound has cratered (which will push inflation higher), pensions have been hit, annuitities are at an all-time low, grants and investments are being cancelled, jobs are being lost, firms are going bankrupt, EU staff are looking for other options, consumer sentiment plunged at a 21 year high pace, property starts are down, property funds are cancelling redemptions, etc. etc. Do your own Googling and you will be able to confirm every single point I just listed.

And all of that in just two weeks when (in theory) nothing has changed... What on earth willl the UK be like in a month, two months, six months - let alone the 2 years of turmoil and uncertainty that Article 50 will trigger?!

No wonder we're almost catatonic with despair! It's like half the country is aware of an impending disaster and the other half are skipping around happy but oblivious.

I will repeat the most important point for emphasis: facts are facts. They don't need "belief". Listen to the rhetoric coming from Leave right now today and it's pretty much still all "hope", "believe", etc. with nothing "real" whatsover to back up any of their statements.

I have tried to use the analogy of an abusive marriage to put the simple case for Brexit. In that analogy the abuseds partner will tell the abused, who wants out of the relationship, that they will not be able to survive the split, the children will suffer the families will be driven apart, the whole economic situation will be catastrophic.
In the analogy,the abuse in the marriage equals the loss of sovereignty and uncontrolled immigration that we were subject to in our relationship with the EU.
Furthermore don't forget that everything you are predicting is simply what all the experts said prior to the referendum, so short of WW3 everyone who held our independence dear is happy to bite the bullet.

 

[Edwin]

I have tried to use the analogy of an abusive marriage to put the simple case for Brexit. In that analogy the abuseds partner will tell the abused, who wants out of the relationship, that they will not be able to survive the split, the children will suffer the families will be driven apart, the whole economic situation will be catastrophic.
In the analogy,the abuse in the marriage equals the loss of sovereignty and uncontrolled immigration that we were subject to in our relationship with the EU.
Furthermore don't forget that everything you are predicting is simply what all the experts said prior to the referendum, so short of WW3 everyone who held our independence dear is happy to bite the bullet.

You're glossing over the fact that most things the Leave campaign promised voters coming into the referendum won't happen. Either because they were out and out lies, or because they made over-commitments (they promised stuff that would cost approximately 11x as much as any potential saving from leaving) or because the "reality" is different (like the "control of immigration" which is no longer equated to a "drop in immigration" and may well not happen at all because of the need to keep freedom of movement.

And you're also wrong in your statement about experts. Yes, what they predicted is coming true. But the Leave campaign talked themselves hoarse in their attempts to convince voters not to listen to, believe or trust the experts. And polling backs this up: most Leave voters trusted NO sources of expertise whatsoever.

So the fact that the experts is right is not a vindication of Leave's position, it's a vindication of Remain's!

 

[websaway]

.

This fantastic letter does a great job of distilling what a lot of remainers were/are feeling.

NOTE: It's a long read, so unless you're genuinely interested in trying to understand "the other viewpoint" don't bother clicking on the link...

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2...ter-a-plea-for-realism-tolerance-and-honesty/

It's not a fantastic letter, not to me anyway.
He didn't mention the affect that calling Leavers racists, a ploy that was seen at first to be enough to defeat the Brexit campaign, had on the Brexit voters. He conveniently overlooks that that attitude was very prevalent among the educated young.

The greatest mistake he is making is that he thinks people blame immigrants for the state of the divide between rich and poor areas. They don't, but they are afraid of what uncontrolled immigration is creating. I think he writes an awful lot to state what is now history and most of his fears are conjecture and others would not gain much sympathy from the Brexit voters.

I think the greatest insult that he and you contribute to the whole argument is that the less well off who voted out will only suffer more as a result of Brexit. A capitalist threat that I thought was a thing of the distant past. It's governments job to make sure they don't suffer most as a result of a democratic process, the burden will be shared.

 

[Edwin]

The poorest always suffer most in an economic downturn! Always have, always will. That's not vindictive. It's not nasty. It's not cruel. It's just a fact.

Why? Because they have least leeway to weather changes in their circumstances, be it higher prices, job cuts, further austerity measures etc.

Again, this is simply an analytical statement of fact.

 

[Edwin]

I think it's worth going back to the title of this thread:

What happens next?

So the evolution of the financial markets, job cuts, political changes, etc. all fall under the topic. As does what happens in the runup to Article 50 and after it is activated, what happens to UK nationals in the EU, EU nationals in the UK, etc.

Any real, actual, fact-based benefits/positives that are occurring as a result of Brexit would also fit the thread topic. I've yet to see much of this, but perhaps it will come in due course.

But hypothetical arm-waving about "sovereignty" doesn't. Not until it either materialises as actual "stronger sovereignty" or gets forgotten as an issue.

Let's try and stick to facts and figures and data and stats as much as possible. There's a wealth of material out there, and more emerging daily as Brexit bites deeper...

 

[websaway]

You're glossing over the fact that most things the Leave campaign promised voters coming into the referendum won't happen. Either because they were out and out lies, or because they made over-commitments (they promised stuff that would cost approximately 11x as much as any potential saving from leaving) or because the "reality" is different (like the "control of immigration" which is no longer equated to a "drop in immigration" and may well not happen at all because of the need to keep freedom of movement.

And you're also wrong in your statement about experts. Yes, what they predicted is coming true. But the Leave campaign talked themselves hoarse in their attempts to convince voters not to listen to, believe or trust the experts. And polling backs this up: most Leave voters trusted NO sources of expertise whatsoever.

So the fact that the experts is right is not a vindication of Leave's position, it's a vindication of Remain's!

Yes but I am speaking from a position of strength ie we voted to leave.
Whatever the chances are now of controlling immigration there would have been none whatsoever if we had remained.

Leavers voted despite the experts opinion not because some people doubted the credibility of that opinion. If you can't believe the chancellor and the BOE who can you believe.
The "out and out lies" thing is wearing a bit thin, it's a bit like arguing what happened in a football match after your team has lost.
I would not keep spinning the situation to suit your objectives, you are just flogging a dead horse.

 

[websaway]

The poorest always suffer most in an economic downturn! Always have, always will. That's not vindictive. It's not nasty. It's not cruel. It's just a fact.

Why? Because they have least leeway to weather changes in their circumstances, be it higher prices, job cuts, further austerity measures etc.

Again, this is simply an analytical statement of fact.

It's actually not a fact, it used to be the case it no longer is. The well off are often hit hardest in a recession,they are often highly geared and have more to lose. We live in a society where when you have little or nothing to lose you are protected by a safety net. It is a vindictive threat and you should not use it , it shows a particular toff status. It will hurt you more than it will hurt me is a pompous attitude. I think it's an attitude that precedes a revolution.

 

[Edwin]

The Leave vote doesn't magically change any other aspect of reality!

Brexit won't magically make the UK less poor because 52% of the voters chose it.

It won't magically make hard negotiations easy, or long negotiations quick.

It won't magically deliver both free trade and restrictions on movement.

It won't magically build hundreds of thousands of houses, raise wages, slash inequality, raise living standards. (These are all things that successive governments have failed to do - it is their failing, nothing to do with the EU)

All the Leave vote has done is make a statement: "we want to leave the EU."

But it has done nothing - absolutely nothing whatsoever - to make the enacting of that decision any less dangerous or less damaging.

 

[Edwin]

It's actually not a fact, it used to be the case it no longer is. The well off are often hit hardest in a recession,they are often highly geared and have more to lose. We live in a society where when you have little or nothing to lose you are protected by a safety net. It is a vindictive threat and you should not use it , it shows a particular toff status. It will hurt you more than it will hurt me is a pompous attitude. I think it's an attitude that precedes a revolution.

If you refuse to believe data and statistics there is quite literally no point in debating with you any more.

I ignored you in the old thread. From
here on, I will ignore you on this one too. It's just not worth it. Sorry.

However, I'll gladly keep the debate going with anyone on either side who is willing to allow the developing facts of the situation into their position.

 

[websaway]

I think it's worth going back to the title of this thread:

What happens next?

So the evolution of the financial markets, job cuts, political changes, etc. all fall under the topic. As does what happens in the runup to Article 50 and after it is activated, what happens to UK nationals in the EU, EU nationals in the UK, etc.

Any real, actual, fact-based benefits/positives that are occurring as a result of Brexit would also fit the thread topic. I've yet to see much of this, but perhaps it will come in due course.

But hypothetical arm-waving about "sovereignty" doesn't. Not until it either materialises as actual "stronger sovereignty" or gets forgotten as an issue.

Let's try and stick to facts and figures and data and stats as much as possible. There's a wealth of material out there, and more emerging daily as Brexit bites deeper...

The only thing that is not hypothetical is the issue of Sovereignty.
Everything else is guess work. It's impossible to tell if sentiment away from the pound , other than for short term speculation, will continue.
It's impossible to tell if the threats of businesses moving away from the uk will materialise.
It's impossible to tell how the negotiations to depart from the EU will pan out .
You can analyse until you are blue in the face but you won't find answers to these questions with figures and what you define as facts because, it doesn't work like that. When China devalue their currency it ads a whole new dimension to an already moving argument.
The only thing that is a constant is that we stopped the erosion of our sovereignty. That was not important to you and that is why you are unable to factor it in to your thinking.

 

[websaway]

The Leave vote doesn't magically change any other aspect of reality!

Brexit won't magically make the UK less poor because 52% of the voters chose it.

It won't magically make hard negotiations easy, or long negotiations quick.

It won't magically deliver both free trade and restrictions on movement.

It won't magically build hundreds of thousands of houses, raise wages, slash inequality, raise living standards. (These are all things that successive governments have failed to do - it is their failing, nothing to do with the EU)

All the Leave vote has done is make a statement: "we want to leave the EU."

But it has done nothing - absolutely nothing whatsoever - to make the enacting of that decision any less dangerous or less damaging.

Which bit of, the majority of the UK do not want to be part of a united states of Europe, can you not quite get hold of ?
All the things successive government failed to do would have been compounded by an increase in population the size of Birmingham every 3 years, forever. Is that so hard to understand.
If I live in a pit, it's my pit, don't send other people to live in it with me, it only makes my pit more uncomfortable, more intolerable. My pit can only accommodate so many people. Just because you can not relate to living in a pit does not make my pit less precious to me.

 

[Adam H]

If you refuse to believe data and statistics there is quite literally no point in debating with you any more.

I ignored you in the old thread. From
here on, I will ignore you on this one too. It's just not worth it.

However, I'll gladly keep the debate going with anyone on either side who is willing to allow the developing facts of the situation into their position.

Will be nice when Acorn starts being a Domain forum again, this is all very boring now.

@admin any chance we could install this : https://xenforo.com/community/resources/ignore-threads-nodes.2399/ Will save the most us completely ignoring the bar section and will allow individual threads to be ignored ?

 

[Admin]

Websaway has an unhealthy obsession with someone. This thread is not about personal forum relations but he cannot get past that....I'm closing the thread.