Corona please read very important

[Siusaidh]

I don't think it's nurses who are taking the P*** in this present crisis. Thankfully, the vast majority of people in this country don't think so either.

 

[LCHappy]

I don't think it's nurses who are taking the P*** in this present crisis. Thankfully, the vast majority of people in this country don't think so either.

I don't know what section of the NHS you work in, but if you were working 12 hours shifts in ICU, sweating buckets whilst wearing layers of PPE. Are you telling me that you would be happy to see that going on? It's not an isolated incident either. I feel sorry for those doctors and nurses who are holding the hands of the dying while their colleagues are doing this.

It has to be put in the context of people that are about to run out of money to put food in their little kids mouths all over the country.

 

[diablo]

I'm giving up reading this thread as it's depressing. I appreciate that nobody means any harm though and that it's a tough time for everyone right now. Take care all.

As Siusaidh eloquently put earlier, there is a certain value to not being as loggerheads on issues. It's all too easy to get sucked into debates on issues where there is never going to be a meeting of minds anyway.

I've also said all I'm going to on this thread. Best wishes to everyone.

 

[Siusaidh]

For several million people, there seems little prospect of safe exit from lockdown until a vaccination can be found and distributed. That said, it's possible a vaccination may be more effective than the immunity (if any) gained from contracting the virus. These are interesting comments from today's BBC news on this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/healt...e-to-be-infected-with-covid-19-more-than-once

 

[bonusmedia]

Obviously this is only anecdotal evidence, but one of my colleagues has a nephew who is a paramedic. He was ill and tested positive, recovered and returned to work, and has now come down with it again, with a second positive test, within weeks. It's possible one of them was a false positive, really hope so.

 

[LCHappy]

Relapse or Reinfection, both possible but they have no idea yet unfortunately.

 

[bonusmedia]

I honestly don't know whether to give up on the thread.
I do appreciate there's no reaching some folks, but if the lies are allowed to stand, they spread.

I keep telling myself it's a small minority shouting loudly, but a small minority spreading lies unchecked can do massive damage. E.g. we're at over 50 mobile towers attacked now, including last week one serving the Birmingham Nightingale Hospital.

 

[LCHappy]

I honestly don't know whether to give up on the thread.
I do appreciate there's no reaching some folks, but if the lies are allowed to stand, they spread.

I keep telling myself it's a small minority shouting loudly, but a small minority spreading lies unchecked can do massive damage. E.g. we're at over 50 mobile towers attacked now, including last week one serving the Birmingham Nightingale Hospital.

Thankfully the local chippy reopened on Friday, we are off out for something to eat for the first time in 5 weeks. Remember what Thatcher said, you stay in if you want to, this lady ain't for starving.

Have a good evening

 

[BREWSTERS]

Meanwhile...it seems no-one, including my local MP, can say what test is being done that diagnoses 'covid-19' - that is, what identifies it as different from everyday regular common-o-garden coronaviruses. So I have to assume it's the PCR test.

I'll let you look into the quality and reliability of that test over the 40 or so years it's been around so you can choose your own sources.

If you know of another test that's being used, please let me know what it is.

 

[starbird]

This thread needs locked for everyone's sanity.

 

[AssetDomains]

Meanwhile...it seems no-one, including my local MP, can say what test is being done that diagnoses 'covid-19' - that is, what identifies it as different from everyday regular common-o-garden coronaviruses. So I have to assume it's the PCR test.

I'll let you look into the quality and reliability of that test over the 40 or so years it's been around so you can choose your own sources.

If you know of another test that's being used, please let me know what it is.

I said I wasn't going to get drawn back in but cant let some of this crap go unchallenged

You say your wife is a nurse dose she not see something different does she not speak to doctors in her hospital do they all think this is a big conspiracy. Do you really think the highly educated British medical profession has all been duped by the government the illuminati or whoever. Do you tell her when she gets home this doesn't exist what does she say?
I done another 10 hour shift today do you now how I know something out of the ordinary is happening. I'll tell you chest after chest looked like the attached this is far from normal.
I've been doing this professionally for 2 years now some of my colleagues for well over 30 what we are all seeing is not normal its not just a flu increase.
There is something very strange and different going on it presents different from other pneumonia covid 19 is nearly always bilateral this is atypical of what you would see with most pneumonia infections which are largely unilateral.
More info on radiological appearance here https://radiopaedia.org/articles/covid-19-3?lang=gb

Apart from what we see with are eyes on the radiographs the gold standard test is RT-PCR its not perfect it does have problems these are with sensitivity not specifity. IE it under reports patients who in fact suffering with covid false negatives. As for disguising between this and other infections it is very specific if you look at this highly sighted scientific paper it was tested against 92 other respiratory infections with no false positives. That's extremely solid testing.
https://www.researchgate.net/public...verse-transcription_polymerase_chain_reaction

I followed up on a patient I x-rayed just over a week ago in ITU 45 ex rugby player farther of two slightly overweight but no other underlying conditions was hopping when he wasn't in the bed he'd been occupying for the last week that he had maybe been stepped down to a normal ward. Sadly though this wasn't the case he didn't make it. Most likely one of the statistics in todays death numbers.
Enjoy your fish and chips though hopefully you don't pick it up or worse spread it unwittingly to someone you crossed paths with potentially robing them of a parent grandparent just because you needed to make a stand.

 

[LCHappy]

I said I wasn't going to get drawn back in but cant let some of this crap go unchallenged

You say your wife is a nurse dose she not see something different does she not speak to doctors in her hospital do they all think this is a big conspiracy. Do you really think the highly educated British medical profession has all been duped by the government the illuminati or whoever. Do you tell her when she gets home this doesn't exist what does she say?
I done another 10 hour shift today do you now how I know something out of the ordinary is happening. I'll tell you chest after chest looked like the attached this is far from normal.
I've been doing this professionally for 2 years now some of my colleagues for well over 30 what we are all seeing is not normal its not just a flu increase.
There is something very strange and different going on it presents different from other pneumonia covid 19 is nearly always bilateral this is atypical of what you would see with most pneumonia infections which are largely unilateral.
More info on radiological appearance here https://radiopaedia.org/articles/covid-19-3?lang=gb

Apart from what we see with are eyes on the radiographs the gold standard test is RT-PCR its not perfect it does have problems these are with sensitivity not specifity. IE it under reports patients who in fact suffering with covid false negatives. As for disguising between this and other infections it is very specific if you look at this highly sighted scientific paper it was tested against 92 other respiratory infections with no false positives. That's extremely solid testing.
https://www.researchgate.net/public...verse-transcription_polymerase_chain_reaction

As for LC you were never banned from picking up a meal from a takeaway or restaurant anyway. But going out intentionally just to be a rebellious your an absolute tool.
I followed up on a patient I x-rayed just over a week ago in ITU 45 ex rugby player farther of two slightly overweight but no other underlying conditions was hopping when he wasn't in the bed he'd been occupying for the last week that he had maybe been stepped down to a normal ward. Sadly though this wasn't the case he didn't make it. Most likely one of the statistics in todays death numbers.
Enjoy your fish and chips though hopefully you don't pick it up or worse spread it unwittingly to someone you crossed paths with potentially robing them of a parent grandparent just because you needed to make a stand.

Let's just calm down, you are seeing the extremes of something and taking it out on other people. There is no doubt at the extremes, this is a deadly disease and is killing people. There are 80 year olds laughing off Covid-19 as nothing more than a cold, check out Nadine Dorris's mum. Do I know what is going on, no!. If you want to start running the country by the extremes that come into ICU then enjoy your walk to work, because you know what, people die in extreme car crashes every day.

You want to take a walk down to the cancer wards in a few months as people with operable cancers kiss goodbye as they see their diagnosis change to in-operable because of the panic that has set it. I'm sorry you are seeing and dealing with what you are - I genuinely am, and whilst we disagree on this, I'm still grateful for the job you are doing, but let's put things into perspective here. You are just seeing the extremes of something bad, that is not the norm.

 

[BREWSTERS]

I said I wasn't going to get drawn back in but cant let some of this crap go unchallenged

You say your wife is a nurse dose she not see something different does she not speak to doctors in her hospital do they all think this is a big conspiracy. Do you really think the highly educated British medical profession has all been duped by the government the illuminati or whoever. Do you tell her when she gets home this doesn't exist what does she say?
I done another 10 hour shift today do you now how I know something out of the ordinary is happening. I'll tell you chest after chest looked like the attached this is far from normal.
I've been doing this professionally for 2 years now some of my colleagues for well over 30 what we are all seeing is not normal its not just a flu increase.
There is something very strange and different going on it presents different from other pneumonia covid 19 is nearly always bilateral this is atypical of what you would see with most pneumonia infections which are largely unilateral.
More info on radiological appearance here https://radiopaedia.org/articles/covid-19-3?lang=gb

Not my wife...my partner. Currently we live 145 miles apart, so because of this house arrest BS haven't been able to see each other for several weeks. She's been on holiday this past week and despite of her usually being in charge of approx. 50 staff and had said she'll be there at the drop of a hat, she hasn't been needed. She has been working for the NHS working her way up for 30 years. She knows my stance on this, and doesn't want to discuss it with me because from what she's seen and been instructed to do from above (directions handed down from government), she is very conflicted, and as she says, it's her job to look after and protect her staff, and to do that effectively she needs to believe that what she's told to do is correct. What the gov are telling them to do and prep for, and what they're seeing, don't tally.

Apart from what we see with are eyes on the radiographs the gold standard test is RT-PCR its not perfect it does have problems these are with sensitivity not specifity. IE it under reports patients who in fact suffering with covid false negatives. As for disguising between this and other infections it is very specific if you look at this highly sighted scientific paper it was tested against 92 other respiratory infections with no false positives. That's extremely solid testing.
https://www.researchgate.net/public...verse-transcription_polymerase_chain_reaction

I'm sorry but you can't get away with that....you cannot call the PCR the 'gold standard' test. The whole issue surrounding it since it was invented was that it has never been subjected to gold standard testing for viruses. I’ll look into the info in your link tomorrow - if it turns out I’m wrong, I’ll say so.

As for LC you were never banned from picking up a meal from a takeaway or restaurant anyway. But going out intentionally just to be a rebellious your an absolute tool.
I followed up on a patient I x-rayed just over a week ago in ITU 45 ex rugby player farther of two slightly overweight but no other underlying conditions was hopping when he wasn't in the bed he'd been occupying for the last week that he had maybe been stepped down to a normal ward. Sadly though this wasn't the case he didn't make it. Most likely one of the statistics in todays death numbers.
Enjoy your fish and chips though hopefully you don't pick it up or worse spread it unwittingly to someone you crossed paths with potentially robing them of a parent grandparent just because you needed to make a stand.

If you're going to have a rant, at least try to be accurate about the person you're ranting at, and calling a tool (fish and chips...not me...they're all shut round here) - it doesn't reflect well if you want people to accept whatever else you're saying.


-------------------

A very good article imo. https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/19/thinking-errors-and-the-coronavirus/

 

[DaveP]

All I know is that I am a web developer. That's my job. I know how to do my job.

Yes, I may read up on other subjects through general interest or to advance my understanding in areas of interest, but I certainly wouldn't shout down anybody who went through a whole education system on the subject and has been employed throughout their whole working life.

Definition of knowledge:

"Facts, information, and skills acquired through experience or education; the theoretical or practical understanding of a subject."

Frankly, the crap being spouted in the thread is absolutely pointless. It's impossible for any single one of you "sceptics" to prove anything because you too know absolutely nothing about the subject in its entirety or the true consequences of any implementation of what you suggest.

What people are actually debating on here is opinions. We've all got one and we're all very much entitled to them, but the thing about opinions is that they can't be wrong.

Also, I fail to see how any party could be doing a worse job than the current crop. All they have truly done right now is implemented a bunch of Labour campaign policies, and they're being hailed for it.

This is absolutely spot on. Most of this thread is absolute drivel. Unless any of you are well renowned virologists or scientists then sometimes it is best to keep certain opinions to yourself.

 

[AssetDomains]

Not my wife...my partner. Currently we live 145 miles apart, so because of this house arrest BS haven't been able to see each other for several weeks. She's been on holiday this past week and despite of her usually being in charge of approx. 50 staff and had said she'll be there at the drop of a hat, she hasn't been needed. She has been working for the NHS working her way up for 30 years. She knows my stance on this, and doesn't want to discuss it with me because from what she's seen and been instructed to do from above (directions handed down from government), she is very conflicted, and as she says, it's her job to look after and protect her staff, and to do that effectively she needs to believe that what she's told to do is correct. What the gov are telling them to do and prep for, and what they're seeing, don't tally.

We prepared for the worst but thankfully because many people took action even before the government was shamed into doing something we didn't get to Italian / Spanish levels of carnage. This was the plan I still don't get why you and other people are upset the lockdown has meant we aren't overwhelmed.

I'm sorry but you can't get away with that....you cannot call the PCR the 'gold standard' test. The whole issue surrounding it since it was invented was that it has never been subjected to gold standard testing for viruses. I’ll look into the info in your link tomorrow - if it turns out I’m wrong, I’ll say so.

I'm not sure were your getting your information from RT-PCR has been rigorously tested in hundreds of maybe thousands of studies against viruses in general.
Just a couple of peer reviewed journal articles
https://cmr.asm.org/content/cmr/21/4/716.full.pdf
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7103711/
I suggest you take a look a some scientific evidence rather than some conspiracy guys word.
https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0,5&q=PCR+for+detection+of+respiratory+viruses&btnG=

If you're going to have a rant, at least try to be accurate about the person you're ranting at, and calling a tool (fish and chips...not me...they're all shut round here) - it doesn't reflect well if you want people to accept whatever else you're saying.

I said LC in reference to LCHappy wasn't referring to you But I'll go back and edit the post for clarity

No, I'm saying it isn't a bad thing that people are going out in defiance of a lock down. The quicker it runs through the population, the quicker we all get out of it.

They aren't over whlemed at the moment, nurses are dancing on Youtube, so much time on their hands that they are now outside the hospital in their thousands clapping themselves every Thursday night.

This charade has gone on way too long for me, I've been going out for the last week. Good to see local take aways also opening round here. If they can't trust me with an exit plan, I'll form my own. In fact, I'd now encourage people to do the same. I'll still respect social distancing though. I would never intrude on someone elses beliefs.

Thankfully the local chippy reopened on Friday, we are off out for something to eat for the first time in 5 weeks. Remember what Thatcher said, you stay in if you want to, this lady ain't for starving.

Have a good evening

​

 

[AssetDomains]

Let's just calm down, you are seeing the extremes of something and taking it out on other people. There is no doubt at the extremes, this is a deadly disease and is killing people. There are 80 year olds laughing off Covid-19 as nothing more than a cold, check out Nadine Dorris's mum. Do I know what is going on, no!. If you want to start running the country by the extremes that come into ICU then enjoy your walk to work, because you know what, people die in extreme car crashes every day.

You want to take a walk down to the cancer wards in a few months as people with operable cancers kiss goodbye as they see their diagnosis change to in-operable because of the panic that has set it. I'm sorry you are seeing and dealing with what you are - I genuinely am, and whilst we disagree on this, I'm still grateful for the job you are doing, but let's put things into perspective here. You are just seeing the extremes of something bad, that is not the norm.

I'll probably stop engaging with you soon as I think you are beyond reach but RE road deaths I've just looked at the figures just shy of 2000 annually 38 a week around 5 a day nation wide. What was yesterdays covid death figure 596 can you see the magnitude of difference that's with the lockdown in place.
As for cancer I imaged 2 cancer patients yesterday who came through A&E as I often will we are not closed to cancer people we don't say if its not covid your not coming in at the door.
I don't work in oncology its hard to say. In my region its largely dealt with in a separate dedicated cancer hospital rated CQC outstanding so I'm not to worried the specialists there will be on top of it for there patients.
Generally though I do get the government could be clearer on the fact if you are sick you should be contacting your GP via the phone/ 999 in an emergency so you can be triaged and directed to the most appropriate place for treatment.
Imagine for a second we didn't lockdown we are seeing some of the worst numbers in Europe with it in place double that and we would be really struggling in work. The modelling suggested though the numbers would be 10 times worse seriously do you think that would have been a better outcome. Do you not think many more people would have died from accidents and emergencies as they wouldn't have got treatment or received massively delayed treatments.

 

[BREWSTERS]

We prepared for the worst but thankfully because many people took action even before the government was shamed into doing something we didn't get to Italian / Spanish levels of carnage. This was the plan I still don't get why you and other people are upset the lockdown has meant we aren't overwhelmed.


I'm not sure were your getting your information from RT-PCR has been rigorously tested in hundreds of maybe thousands of studies against viruses in general.
Just a couple of peer reviewed journal articles
https://cmr.asm.org/content/cmr/21/4/716.full.pdf
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7103711/
I suggest you take a look a some scientific evidence rather than some conspiracy guys word.
https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0,5&q=PCR+for+detection+of+respiratory+viruses&btnG=


I said LC in reference to LCHappy wasn't referring to you But I'll go back and edit the post for clarity

​

Ok noted, and thanks for the info - it'll be tonight before I get a chance to get through it all.

It would be useful to know exactly which PCR test is being used in the UK for diagnosing CV if you have that info please?

 

[websaway]

Just to bring the thread back on track and reasons to be happy.
It's a good time to get children exercising and getting their
BMI on track. Nobody after this who have no underlying health problems need be overweight. Most people have nothing to do but look after themselves and their loved ones so now is a great time to focus on important health matters.

 

[LCHappy]

I'll probably stop engaging with you soon as I think you are beyond reach but RE road deaths I've just looked at the figures just shy of 2000 annually 38 a week around 5 a day nation wide. What was yesterdays covid death figure 596 can you see the magnitude of difference that's with the lockdown in place.

I think we've got crossed lines. What I'm saying is that if policy for road traffic was made on what you see coming through the hospital doors, fit young healthy people who have done no wrong dying, we would probably ban cars. We have to take the wider view of people that aren't getting sick from this, or simply having no symptoms. Overall, the death rate appears to be no worse than flu at this point - no, I'm not saying it is flu, just the mortality rate is the same. Whilst bad, we don't ruin the economy for flu.

I don't work in oncology its hard to say. In my region its largely dealt with in a separate dedicated cancer hospital rated CQC outstanding so I'm not to worried the specialists there will be on top of it for there patients.

I was referencing an article that was attributed to a "top doctor" (they always are when in the paper), but she claimed 60,000 early deaths through cancer related delays due to CoronaVirus issues. Let's take with a pinch of salt those numbers, it will still be significant and this is just one area of medicine.

Imagine for a second we didn't lockdown we are seeing some of the worst numbers in Europe with it in place double that and we would be really struggling in work. The modelling suggested though the numbers would be 10 times worse seriously do you think that would have been a better outcome. Do you not think many more people would have died from accidents and emergencies as they wouldn't have got treatment or received massively delayed treatments.

On that guys modelling, the Spectator put some simple questions to him, quite damming. I'll copy and paste them here because it's behind a paywall. It's worth remembering that we had a very clear plan that was explained to us in early March. Then this model turned up and Ministers panicked. The original plan was to run the NHS at around about 80% of capacity until this went through the community. Something changed and we weren't told what, we weren't explained why it had changed. If that is on medical advice then they need to share it. I think they have just lost their way and nobody is in charge anymore. I speculate that maybe Boris is alarmed at what he went through and is allowing it to cloud his judgement.

---------------------------------

In 2005, Ferguson said that up to 200 million people could be killed from bird flu. He told the Guardian that ‘around 40 million people died in 1918 Spanish flu outbreak… There are six times more people on the planet now so you could scale it up to around 200 million people probably.’ In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.

How did he get this forecast so wrong?

Q2. In 2009, Ferguson and his Imperial team predicted that swine flu had a case fatality rate 0.3 per cent to 1.5 per cent. His most likely estimate was that the mortality rate was 0.4 per cent. A government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ was that the disease would lead to 65,000 UK deaths.

In the end swine flu killed 457 people in the UK and had a death rate of just 0.026 per cent in those infected.

Why did the Imperial team overestimate the fatality of the disease? Or to borrow Robinson's words to Hancock this morning: 'that prediction wasn't just nonsense was it? It was dangerous nonsense.'

Q3. In 2001 the Imperial team produced modelling on foot and mouth disease that suggested that animals in neighbouring farms should be culled, even if there was no evidence of infection. This influenced government policy and led to the total culling of more than six million cattle, sheep and pigs – with a cost to the UK economy estimated at £10 billion.

It has been claimed by experts such as Michael Thrusfield, professor of veterinary epidemiology at Edinburgh University, that Ferguson’s modelling on foot and mouth was ‘severely flawed’ and made a ‘serious error’ by ‘ignoring the species composition of farms,’ and the fact that the disease spread faster between different species.

Does Ferguson acknowledge that his modelling in 2001 was flawed and if so, has he taken steps to avoid future mistakes?

Q4. In 2002, Ferguson predicted that between 50 and 50,000 people would likely die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. He also predicted that number could rise to 150,000 if there was a sheep epidemic as well. In the UK, there have only been 177 deaths from BSE.

Does Ferguson believe that his ‘worst-case scenario’ in this case was too high? If so, what lessons has he learnt when it comes to his modelling since?

Q5.Ferguson’s disease modelling for Covid-19 has been criticised by experts such as John Ioannidis, professor in disease prevention at Stanford University, who has said that: ‘The Imperial College study has been done by a highly competent team of modellers. However, some of the major assumptions and estimates that are built in the calculations seem to be substantially inflated.’

Has the Imperial team’s Covid-19 model been subject to outside scrutiny from other experts, and are the team questioning their own assumptions used? What safeguards are in place?

Q6. On 22 March, Ferguson said that Imperial College London’s model of the Covid-19 disease is based on undocumented, 13-year-old computer code, that was intended to be used for a feared influenza pandemic, rather than a coronavirus.

How many assumptions in the Imperial model are still based on influenza and is there any risk that the modelling is flawed because of these assumptions?

 

[BREWSTERS]

If anyone in a private business that had such a shocking track record with their computer modelling, they would be looking for a different job. The foot and mouth debacle which Ferguson had a hand in is explained in this very interesting documentary and shows a long standing relationship between Imperial College and their use to government when scary figures are needed. The fact they're consistently shown to be wildly inaccurate time and again doesn't seem to matter.

Imperial College (who employs Ferguson) have received over $200m from Bill Gates over the last 15 years or so...here are some more entities who have had payments from Bill Gates;

Chris Whitty - Chief Medical Officer
The BBC
The Guardian
Johns Hopkins University
Gavi - one of the biggest funders is the UK Gov...here's a line from their site; "Long-term commitments to Gavi in the form of direct contributions from donors and investors allow us to provide programme predictability to countries as well as to shape vaccine markets." my emphasis added. It's a business.
WHO (now their biggest funder since The US pulled out.