A glance at the real numbers of affected domains

[Edwin]

Nominet state in the Q&A:

For the vast majority of existing registrants (over 96% of 10.56 million), we will automatically reserve the shorter equivalent of their current .uk domain for free for five years. At any point during that period they can decide to register the new .uk instead of, or in addition to, the domain they already have.

Fewer than 4% of registrants will not be eligible for this, because the same domain string is registered to two or more people across the different suffixes (for example, one person owns website.co.uk and another owns website.org.uk). In these instances, the .co.uk registrant will be eligible for the equivalent shorter domain.

If we use their figure of 10,560,000, then 10,137,600 domain registrants have already qualified for .uk outright (the determination was made on 28 October 2013).

A further 422,400 registrants will be in contention. Since contention requires a minimum of 2 conflicting domains, that means that an absolute maximum of 211,200 domain registrants out of 10,560,000 (2%) won't get a .uk.

However,

A) Nominet said "over 96%" and "fewer than 4%" so the real picture will be better than that
B) Some contention sets will have 3+ conflicting domains, so the real picture will be better than that

Worth noting that all the discussions we've had surrounding "oldest first", ".co.uk first" etc. relate to those 211,200 or fewer domains.

 

[Stephen]

Ref on numbers

The V2 .uk background document stated;

There are around 500,000 domains names, constituting 5% of the .uk registry that have identical third level strings – across more than one second level domain space.

As you have mentioned above maximum 250,000 domain conflicts, but my research showed 30% of those where .org.uk and .co.uk joint ownership.

Interesting to see V3 .uk take on the difference in Q & A.

Q. When there are ‘clashes’, why are you prioritising .co.uk?

A. This was one of the most common suggestions in the consultation feedback we received, and we have come to agree that this is the best option, in that it is fair to as many people as possible, will minimise consumer confusion, and best reflects the perceptions and expectations within the domain name market. Reasons for this include:
The vast majority of registrations in the .uk namespace are .co.uk – 93% compared to 7% for all others (.org.uk, .me.uk, etc) combined. This suggests .co.uk has come to be seen as the ‘default’ suffix for many UK businesses and consumers.
The second-largest group (6%) are .org.uk registrations, and we understand that many .org.uk sites place a specific value on including the .org, as it indicates a ‘special’ status as a non-commercial organisation.

 

[Edwin]

As you have mentioned above maximum 250,000 domain conflicts, but my research showed 30% of those where .org.uk and .co.uk joint ownership.

So that makes the number of edge cases even smaller. Assuming that 30% maps across the board then there are only approx. 140,000 registrants who won't get the .uk to match their main domain.