Beyond Covid

[keys]

The release of restrictions due to covid is set to be slow and gradual. This will enable return to work, education and leisure pursuits.

Many business models rely on people gathering in confined space. How will clubs, bars, restaurants and indoor events cope with social distancing and still be viable. Queues for shops seem inevitable for the rest of the year, at least.

Public transport in cities will be a challenge. Perhaps crowded trains and buses could be alleviated by changed working hours. It does seem ridiculous to have packed vehicles for an hour or so twice per day, and often near empty the rest of the time.

Looking back it appears that luxury spending on cars, holidays, cruising, designer goods etc. was the old normal. The new economic landscape may bring some significant changes. With an economy fuelled by consumer spending it will remain important, but it would be great to see a real revival of UK manufacturing. The possibility of future epidemics makes this imperative for some products.

Will people go back to their old habits and routines. There is a stronger argument now to quit smoking and reduce other unhealthy pleasures. Being seriously overweight is a risk factor. Investing time and effort to improve your lifestyle or fitness can bring a multitude of benefits. The next few weeks could be a precious opportunity to assess priorities and make some positive changes.

What changes do you anticipate?

 

[Siusaidh]

I know it sounds a trivial thing, but I think there will be an ongoing uptake in Home Baking. I've heard from so many people saying they are baking bread and cakes. In my mother's generation this was just a norm, but in recent years fewer people have really practised home baking regularly (notwithstanding the encouragement of TV shows). Now lots of people, stuck at home, have started doing baking as a practicality and a regular thing. For the first time in a generation or two, practical things like this have grown part of domesticate life (in part, I suppose, because for the millions stranded at home there's a bit more time to do this). Admittedly flour and yeast has not been that easy to access in the last couple of months (but that seems to be getting better).

More broadly, I think this crisis has made people stop and realise some of the more basic values that we find ourselves falling back on, which we maybe didn't value so much before. Knowing human nature can be fickle, I guess there will also be a tendency to return to things as they were before - old habits, convenience foods etc - but I do think this crisis has presented our (younger than our parents') generations with a reality check, and that could be positive.

Home-baked bread, fresh out of the oven, smells so good and tastes great. I spread butter on still-warm bread, and then lavish honey or strawberry jam. It's just so nice. I think for some, this crisis will kick off new habits. I hope so anyway.

 

[Gill]

The release of restrictions due to covid is set to be slow and gradual. This will enable return to work, education and leisure pursuits.

Many business models rely on people gathering in confined space. How will clubs, bars, restaurants and indoor events cope with social distancing and still be viable. Queues for shops seem inevitable for the rest of the year, at least.

Public transport in cities will be a challenge. Perhaps crowded trains and buses could be alleviated by changed working hours. It does seem ridiculous to have packed vehicles for an hour or so twice per day, and often near empty the rest of the time.

Looking back it appears that luxury spending on cars, holidays, cruising, designer goods etc. was the old normal. The new economic landscape may bring some significant changes. With an economy fuelled by consumer spending it will remain important, but it would be great to see a real revival of UK manufacturing. The possibility of future epidemics makes this imperative for some products.

Will people go back to their old habits and routines. There is a stronger argument now to quit smoking and reduce other unhealthy pleasures. Being seriously overweight is a risk factor. Investing time and effort to improve your lifestyle or fitness can bring a multitude of benefits. The next few weeks could be a precious opportunity to assess priorities and make some positive changes.

What changes do you anticipate?

Far too sensible, it'll never work

 

[newguy]

I know it sounds a trivial thing, but I think there will be an ongoing uptake in Home Baking. I've heard from so many people saying they are baking bread and cakes. In my mother's generation this was just a norm, but in recent years fewer people have really practised home baking regularly (notwithstanding the encouragement of TV shows). Now lots of people, stuck at home, have started doing baking as a practicality and a regular thing. For the first time in a generation or two, practical things like this have grown part of domesticate life (in part, I suppose, because for the millions stranded at home there's a bit more time to do this). Admittedly flour and yeast has not been that easy to access in the last couple of months (but that seems to be getting better).

More broadly, I think this crisis has made people stop and realise some of the more basic values that we find ourselves falling back on, which we maybe didn't value so much before. Knowing human nature can be fickle, I guess there will also be a tendency to return to things as they were before - old habits, convenience foods etc - but I do think this crisis has presented our (younger than our parents') generations with a reality check, and that could be positive.

Home-baked bread, fresh out of the oven, smells so good and tastes great. I spread butter on still-warm bread, and then lavish honey or strawberry jam. It's just so nice. I think for some, this crisis will kick off new habits. I hope so anyway.

You're not wrong. We've started baking bread. Must've baked about twenty loafs so far. Had never done it previous to this. I actually quite like the idea of having a little vegetable patch; maybe one day!

As a wider point about values, maybe we have all been a bit locked into a certain way of life, and this pause, albeit not for ideal reasons, might help give us a more meaningful and appreciative perspective on life.

 

[keys]

My wife started making bread at home about ten years ago. Back then she bought a Panasonic bread maker which was highly rated. After all this time, and hundreds of cycles, it still works perfectly, although we have replaced the paddle and tin.

Her main ingredient seems to be "scratch" almost everything is made from it . I wish she would share her skills in video or website form. She can create quality nutritious meals, without a recipe in sight, and she has never used a tin opener.

I think it is sad that so often, children are given a screen to amuse them, such as tablet, tv, ipad, mobile etc. Nothing wrong with that for a short time, but as a necessity consuming many hours per day, it is an unseen problem. It is also lost opportunity to develop and explore other activities.

What does this have to do with bread making? Well, generally children enjoy learning and spending time with parents, or grandparents, and baking can tick both boxes. There is more achievement and purpose to creating a loaf of bread, than a senior level after hundreds of hours on a computer game.

 

[dee]

I think this is probably going to be more drawn out than people think. Until either everyone is tested so they know what level of immunity there is, or a proper vaccine found ( which takes a while )until then I think mass gatherings, football matches, concerts... all no goes. I reckon actually probably next year before something resembling normality. I think there will be a lot of pubs especially go under.

I suspect business will realise it doesnt need to spend millions on business flights and there'll be more electronic face to face going on. I see microsoft teams is advertising heavily at the mo to grab slice of pie. I see more people working from home more often as businesses clock they dont need to have staff confined in offices.

I also suspect, major business will realise that supply chain is key and manufacture more locally as opposed to cheapest bid in whichever country is current equivalent of china. Its pointless having a $100,000 dollar car being made in the states that is reying on a part turning up from china. If it doesnt turn up, all you have is a large paperweight.

Nature is grabbing a breath or two which is great. I see jellyfish have been seen in Venice ! Amazing. If you know venice... thats amazing.

Unfortunately for us its been more of a battle with the kids than normal as we were doing a fair bit with them and they were very active. They've resorted to grasping at technology far more than usual. Normality is school, football, dance, friends, swimming, weekend matches and competitions and we regulate screen time even then. At the mo they are bored so its a battle .All they seem to want to do is play on games, which were not having but relinquish because they are bored so is a spiral.

I truly hope this is a bit of a reset in terms of humanity. We need it.

As an end note... I also hope that there a realisation that actually the people do the crappy jobs deserve more. Nurses, fireman, bus drivers, doctors, nurses, binmen etc etc etc... the list is endless. Not a single friggin bank executive has made a jot of difference in this situation. Anyone thats prepared to wipe someones backside and hold someones hand while they risk their own health doing it deserves to be paid a shed load in my book.

 

[newguy]

I think this is probably going to be more drawn out than people think. Until either everyone is tested so they know what level of immunity there is, or a proper vaccine found ( which takes a while )until then I think mass gatherings, football matches, concerts... all no goes. I reckon actually probably next year before something resembling normality. I think there will be a lot of pubs especially go under.

I suspect business will realise it doesnt need to spend millions on business flights and there'll be more electronic face to face going on. I see microsoft teams is advertising heavily at the mo to grab slice of pie. I see more people working from home more often as businesses clock they dont need to have staff confined in offices.

.

Yes, we'll possibly see restaurants and the like start to open again in a month or two, but there will no doubt be restrictions on the number of people that can be seated at any one time. Business will be hit from multiple angles really, as not only will restrictions remain, but plenty of people will still be wary of the little things in life, like going for a drink or having a meal out, until they are given reason not to be I notice that data from a recent remdesivir trial does not look promising. Maybe the vaccine is out best hope then really, but we'd be hard pushed to see that before the end of the year.

I don't think we'll be seeing crowds at football games or boxing matches until 2021, maybe horse racing behind closed doors soon will start up and we'll take it from there.

 

[boxfish]

I think this is probably going to be more drawn out than people think. Until either everyone is tested so they know what level of immunity there is, or a proper vaccine found ( which takes a while )until then I think mass gatherings, football matches, concerts... all no goes. I reckon actually probably next year before something resembling normality. I think there will be a lot of pubs especially go under.

I think a lot of people missed what Chris Whitty said in last nights Press Conference, basically saying we are not changing much for at least 12 months.

Also, in the 26 page document published by Scotland, it says the reason we are all doing lockdown 3 weeks at a time is because that is what the law says what must be done, it must be reassessed every 3 weeks, it's not because we are near a 'release' date.

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[newguy]

I think the government are in a bit of a bind in that beyond a certain point in time, it might be wise to tell everyone under a certain age to basically get on with things (though wear a mask and observe social distancing), but for those in vulnerable groups such as the elderly to remain keeping a low profile. It's hard for there to be any legal basis to that though in my view, so it would be advisory, and once places are open for business, I can see people getting complacent and the numbers rising again.

On the plus side we are obviously gradually working our way through this, and it may be that more people have antibodies than we realise. It's a problem that's essentially being experienced by and worked on by the entire planet, so there are unifying factors that could feasibly see us emerge from this a way that makes us more appreciative, and better prepared if something as horrendous as this comes around again.

 

[websaway]

I have to smile. Experts are saying that if you wear a mask you don't transmit the virus to others. Doesn't that mean if everyone wore a mask nobody would catch it.

 

[newguy]

I have to smile. Experts are saying that if you wear a mask you don't transmit the virus to others. Doesn't that mean if everyone wore a mask nobody would catch it.

I definitely think that if everyone wore a mask it would significantly reduce infections. You'd have both the potential infected person limit the spread and beyond that are also protected yourself. It seems to me that the government and WHO haven't given the thumbs up to masks across the board, on account that they know there would be a serious shortage (jeopardising NHS supply etc). It does seem like a sensible step to take though if they can ramp up production.

 

[dee]

I definitely think that if everyone wore a mask it would significantly reduce infections. You'd have both the potential infected person limit the spread and beyond that are also protected yourself. It seems to me that the government and WHO haven't given the thumbs up to masks across the board, on account that they know there would be a serious shortage (jeopardising NHS supply etc). It does seem like a sensible step to take though if they can ramp up production.

absolutely would... doesnt have to be medical grade. Its more about catching spit coming out and subconciously and physicialy stops you touching your own face ( this is the huge bit)

 

[newguy]

 

[BREWSTERS]

Have you ever been to Russia or China years ago? That's what it'll be like.

In the 80's I saw people queuing by the side of main roads to buy a cabbage - 40 or 50 people. As we went past I saw there were only about a dozen or so left, so a lot of them wouldn't have got their cabbage that day. Everywhere (except the 'westerners' shop and Red Square) people queued for pretty much everything from what I could see. It struck me that no-one smiled - at all. I felt sorry for those people and gave a lot of my gear away to the guards and staff I met. They didn't even smile then, not that I blame them.

If this goes on for much longer, do you think there will be many bars or restaurants left to open? Buildings deteriorate very quickly when not being used. Neither tenants nor landlords will have the money for upkeep. How long do you think those places can keep the wolf from the door? If this house arrest doesn't end very soon, it's going to get very bad, very quickly.

 

[newguy]

I do think, for the reasons you state, they will remove some of these restrictions possibly next month. It is a complicated picture though for businesses, because even if that does happen, custom is going to be down until possibly into next year. I don't think there's any magic bullet, since if I was 70+ I can't say I'd be too eager to be in a crowded place either.

At some point though however hard it gets pubs and restaurants will be back to what they used to be, as long term there is as much demand as ever. There might be a mental shift in terms of other high street purchases though. The shift to relying on the internet and online businesses is likely something that will stick in various ways I'd say.

 

[keys]

So far, most of us understand the need for isolation and social distancing, and we comply with the rules set to achieve this. Care workers and people directly affected will remain acutely aware of the continuing risks.

As time goes by and hospital cases decline it will be challenging for authorities to sustain a persuasive case for us to continue with severe restrictions. Rather like the instruction from cabin crew when a flight lands "please remain seated until the warning lights are turned off", but when a few passengers ignore this most others follow suit.

Making use of outdoor space, during the fine weather of summer months would allow some economic recovery. However, the temptation to ignore social distancing would prevail, fuelling a delayed increase in the bad numbers. There are already reports of this happening in countries where release of measures has been premature. I suspect many US states are going to join this list.

 

[dee]

I suspect many US states are going to join this list.

I suspect there are huge swathes in the states that are screwed,. You seriously have areas where people believe that a "higher power" will take care of them .

There are masses of big protests going on at the moment there ( with big gatherings) on the lockdown. It's almost unbelievable.

 

[BREWSTERS]

For an American perspective -

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- watch from 9.59mins and 16.30mins

 

[websaway]

Do we now have evidence that our life style will continue to fill any capacity created by throwing endless money at the NHS. A&E visits down by 50%, if you increase the capacity of the NHS by 50% in ordinary times then it will be taken up by unnecessary treatment, whether it be through immigration or boob jobs. We need now to learn that people have to manage their own health needs and it can be done.

 

[websaway]

I guess the same could be said for individuals that define whether treatment is necessary or not. Mental health effects people in different ways, and the catalyst is different for everyone. It exists for people whether you think it does or not.

When people have been educated enough to be more understanding and supportive of complete strangers, that is when they will also be educated enough about managing their own health needs.

The answer to this is a huge investment into the education system, and for that to remain in place for future generations and beyond.

We've got about as much chance of this happening as @BREWSTERS not posting anything that even slightly resembles a conspiracy theory.

Yes I think we've never needed more education towards self management than we do now. With people living longer with less hours spent at work, with more broken families and with the snowflake generation believing that we have a divine right to have something or feel something or to be something, it's time to put more emphasis on self management.