The future of drop catches...

[Edwin]

I was just musing: in all likelihood, the domains that will drop in the next 5 years will be just a fraction of those that dropped in the last 5. And the more that the value of domains becomes clear "to everyone", the fewer and fewer decent drops there will be. (Certainly that seems to be the current trend, and there's no real reason why it should reverse itself)

At the same time, more and more catchers, public, semi-private and private, keep piling into the market, chasing an ever-decreasing pool of commercially desirable domains.

What does that mean? Well, it means the best time to catch was "yesterday", but the next best time to catch is "today". It also means that if you have the wherewithal to "stock the shelves" whether through catching or through judicious after-market purchases, now might be a very good time to do so.

Relevant aside: that's exactly what I've been doing. In the last year I've bulked up my portfolio from 3,500 to about 5,200 domains through fresh registrations, catches and targeted buying on Acorn and elsewhere. I'm about done with shelf-stocking, though I'm probably going to push through 6,000 names before I finally slow to a "sustainable pace" (new acquisitions roughly balanced by sales).

Anyway, how do you see the drop market evolving? And (if you're willing to share) where do you see the opportunities still lie?

 

[doodlebug]

I should have the money for my own tag, 3 months DAC and company formation in November at a cost of £800 in total, am I wasting my time, is it to late to jump onboard by then, was hoping to catch all through 2011.

Edwin you're right about stock piling, I'm selling no more cheapies just to get cash and I'm going to buy some cheapies off here to make up for the ones I've sold

I plan on stocking up on 500 generics, nothing compared to Edwins' 5000 but if I hold on to them for a few years at a cost of £40 per week in renewal fees it might pay off ?

I'm on about 110 right now and I am adding some future domains just incase I get the right ones ?

I only hope that in 10 years we're not using a completely different format of internet as in no extensions are needed ?

I have nothing else for the future so I'll give it a go

I see the internet as Human being, meaning that a 16 year old Human can do loads of things and has done loads of things but still got loads to do as it matures, internet is also about 16 years old in it's form now and not including the days of scientists entering codes just to access a server, I think the internet has a long life left yet.

 

[JMOT]

I was just musing:

What does that mean?

You keep getting richer Edwin

 

[davedevelopment]

I'm not really sure how it's going to evolve, but I know my plans for the short term and that's not to rely on it as a source of income. I've more than recouped the cost of membership etc with my catching up to now, but I've grown a little bored of tweaking my setup, trying to look for patterns. Initially I saw it as a nice challenge, but now I've got to the point where I'm almost baffled as to how some peoples systems can be so much better than mine. So right now I'm having a quick scan of the lists, loading up the names I fancy and hoping for the best. Any domains I get are a bonus and I wont rely on catching as a source of income.

 

[WigWam]

does anybody think that in the future instead of nominet dropping domains they will just auction them off? to make it fairer ?

WigWam

 

[doodlebug]

does anybody think that in the future instead of nominet dropping domains they will just auction them off? to make it fairer ?

WigWam

I don't want UK names to go down the same road as TLDs because then you're not going to get some catches worth selling on.

Just my opinion Turtle boy :lol: I love that vid

 

[WigWam]

I don't want UK names to go down the same road as TLDs because then you're not going to get some catches worth selling on.

Just my opinion Turtle boy :lol:

I bet they will

- more money for nominet
-fairer for everyone
- will help reduce cyber squaters



WigWam

 

[doodlebug]

I bet they will

- more money for nominet
-fairer for everyone
- will help reduce cyber squaters



WigWam

But they're a non for profit organisation so that wouldn't figure but then neither does charging for non paper transfers :?

 

[WigWam]

But they're a non for profit organisation so that wouldn't figure but then neither does charging for non paper transfers :?

even charities want more money.

they still charge £11.75 or something like that a transfer that is automated.

and as a charity I am sure that they would want to make the process fairer for mr smith who doesn't have a advanced drop catching system.

WigWam

 

[aZooZa]

even charities want more money.

they still charge £11.75 or something like that a transfer that is automated.

and as a charity I am sure that they would want to make the process fairer for mr smith who doesn't have a advanced drop catching system.

WigWam

WW, they are not a charity. They have ties to one though

 

[grantw]

-fairer for everyone

The top domains would only ever go to people with very deep pockets, not sure how that would make it fairer for mr smith!

Grant

 

[Edwin]

The top domains would only ever go to people with very deep pockets, not sure how that would make it fairer for mr smith!

It is "commercially fairer".

In the real world, companies with more money CAN do more. Whether it's buy larger premises, mount wider ad campaigns, develop products faster etc.

And that's commercially 100% fair, and nobody raises an eyebrow at it.

Likewise, nobody would suggest that a tiny company with 100 pounds in the bank should be allowed to buy a plot of land next to Harrods at far-far-far-far-below market rates because that's the "fair" thing to do, yet that's the strange implication every time the idea of an auction for drops is mooted.

Never lose sight of the fact that "fair" has never meant "equal", despite the many attempts of those in politics (and elsewhere) to equate the two!

In fact, an auction right-prices the drops in the sense that if it functions correctly, it should extract the "real value" of the domain name, rather than some artificially low price brought about the current low barrier to entry to drop-catching (a low barrier from which I have of course benefitted alongside many others)

 

[websaway]

There will always be drops, and more people will be looking for them, the quality of the domains will reduce becoming fools gold.

 

[grantw]

It is "commercially fairer".

A 'fair' point

As for where dropcatching is going - I can't see it happening but if the current activities/terms and conditions of dynadot and domain monster get past the scrutiny of Nominet then it's a model that virtually every registrar will adopt and drops will no longer exist, everything will be auctioned off by the registrar in a similar manner to the TLD market.

Grant

 

[monaghan]

does anybody think that in the future instead of nominet dropping domains they will just auction them off? to make it fairer ?

WigWam

How does an auction make it fair?

At the moment anyone can join Nominet and build a system and catch a domain or alternatively book a slot with a catcher. If you auction names, then the little guys will not be able to afford the best names and those with the large corporate backing will be able to set the prices.

 

[doodlebug]

How does an auction make it fair?

At the moment anyone can join Nominet and build a system and catch a domain or alternatively book a slot with a catcher. If you auction names, then the little guys will not be able to afford the best names and those with the large corporate backing will be able to set the prices.

Exactly, it's suppose to be us selling to the big companies and not them selling to us

 

[Retired_member41]

Hi

surely if there is a system where everyone can catch domains, people new and without the means of the more established, will sell for a small profit.

This domain churn should lead to more sales, more exposure to sales from the business community, and still allow the more established domainers to pick up the domains they want, just paying a little more thats all.

If anything, it may allow the professional catchers to have access to more domains that they would originally.

So a good thing for all.

 

[Lucky Luke]

...Anyway, how do you see the drop market evolving? And (if you're willing to share) where do you see the opportunities still lie?

The drop market for .co.uk is like a shrinking pond with better anglers around it: the tasty fish are getting fewer and smaller whilst the anglers who are still there are getting beaten by a few anglers that have somehow improved their bait & hooks, but who, nevertheless, continue to find that the fish are getting less-tasty.

Most anglers who stick with fishing where everyone else is fishing are struggling.

One or two are happy to catch less-tasty fish (.org.uk) and some others even think that the old boots they have pulled out (.me.uk) are fish

Certain smart anglers have found corners of that pond that were not heavily fished first time around and provide plenty of smaller fish that suit the specific tastes of a few rare, but well-off customers, but they have to fish heavily to be sure of a sale.

The problem with the pond is that, to a greater extent, these fish don't breed. There was a big bang explosion that created these fish about 1993, but since then a few breeding programs (new tld's) have started but mainly failed to create such a large number of tasty fish. Technological changes can create a few new tasty fish (eg, "3d", etc) and government initiatives create a few more (eg, "...scrappage", etc), but by and large, they don't breed.

What's great about these fish is that they appear to be eternal and if you have a good one and look after it well, it will look after you well too. For that reason, many people are happy to buy these fish after they have been caught, perfectly aware that >99% of these good fish will never go back to that pond again.

What's odd about these fish is that if you catch one that looks nice but isn't tasty (and may not have even been caught before), it can be made tasty with a bit of post-landing work. But many anglers don't regard that as sport!

To answer Edwin's question and to continue the metaphor, the drop-market for .co.uk won't evolve as such, it will be dominated by one or two anglers who have smart bait & hooks and the other anglers go and find something better to do with their time when they realise that angling at that pond isn't the only game in town.

Just my view,

Izaak Walton

 

[doodlebug]

Nice reworking Mr Luke

Makes sense aswell

 

[tifosi]

til eventually the landowner decides that it's better to drain the pond and build apartments on it...

J R R Hartley