Corona please read very important

diablo · Mar 30, 2020

I don't disagree with much of what you say.

For me, Hanson is making a wider point about the law and government scrutiny. I don't think he so much distrusts the scientific advice (which is advice, based on opinion) than he distrusts the state and its wider motives.

The first duty of the state has never been to protect its citizens. The first duty of the state is to protect the state. A cursory glance of history books or a stroll around a war cemetery tell us that much.

I'm not comparing flu to covid19, but flu kills thousands every winter. From my understanding of what we're currently being told today, less people would die from flu if the same social distancing / quarantine conditions being imposed now were applied every flu season.

Since they are not, are we (or the state) saying that some avoidable levels of death are acceptable?

Or that some citizens are expendable so that the majority of us can continue living our lives?

Or that as long as the NHS can cope, roll on up?

The one thing I'm certain about is that the world we live in will be a different one after covid19 than it was before. I think Hanson is flagging some of those concerns.

bonusmedia · Mar 30, 2020

That makes sense. I haven't given enough thought to how this changes the role of the state.
The situation in Hungary is scary - though it wasn't much better before.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52095500

He talks about a police state, and police overstepping their bounds - I agree that's pretty ominous.
It's right to call it out but surely we have to be a bit forgiving of isolated mistakes, given there are no established procedures yet. There are probably going to be lots of mistakes all over the place while we work this all out.

I'm not a fan of this government but I've noticed wanting to trust the authorities more recently.
That may be about wanting strong leadership in a crisis, or maybe some Stockholm syndrome.
It might even be a bit like the conspiracy theories - it's more comforting to think there are competent people in charge of it all than face the chaos of reality.

I do trust the motives of the CMO, the CSA etc - even if they make mistakes - so it could be that I feel a bit safer while they've got the government's ear.

Obviously no-one actually trusts Boris, but he doesn't strike me as a totalitarian dictator - too much like hard work

LCHappy · Mar 31, 2020

Anyone else find it odd that each night they drag out the same useless journalists to ask the same stupid questions of whoever is in Downing Street. How long? are we there yet? can I go out for easter eggs? ya ya ya.

Would anyone disagree with changing these for scientists? Not in a confrontational way but in a learned way so that we could all be smarter.

Who wouldn't come out of that 30 minutes more intelligent than before they went in?

Edwin · Mar 31, 2020

Important context...

In March 2019, 43,815 people died in England and Wales. That's an average of 1,413 deaths per day. (Let's assume the 2020 figures would be similar, were it not for COVID-19, for the sake of making some comparison.)

Now, 374 people died of coronavirus in England and Wales over the last 24H.

374 is 26.4% of 1,413.

It's clear coronavirus is a huge, huge death factor now. In the last 24H, it either led to over a quarter of all deaths and/or a quarter more deaths, depending on how additive it is.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...guresondeathsregisteredbyareaofusualresidence

Edwin · Mar 31, 2020

LCHappy said:
Anyone else find it odd that each night they drag out the same useless journalists to ask the same stupid questions of whoever is in Downing Street. How long? are we there yet? can I go out for easter eggs? ya ya ya.

Would anyone disagree with changing these for scientists? Not in a confrontational way but in a learned way so that we could all be smarter.

Who wouldn't come out of that 30 minutes more intelligent than before they went in?

I would agree, except for one thing. When journalists do manage to conjure up specific, prying questions - and it does happen, even though at times I despair just as much as you - they're met with deflection every single time. There's never a straight, direct answer.

So unfortunately all that would likely happen is you'd have a press conference in which the quality of the questions rose but the quality of the answers stayed at the same very low level.

newguy · Mar 31, 2020

Disheartening numbers again from Italy. 2,107 new infections (+837 deaths) compared with Monday's figure of 1,648. And of course an increase in our numbers too. There's so much we still don't know about how this will pan out. The toll it could potentially take as it works its way through the population doesn't bear thinking about.

It seems to me, that as soon as lock down is lifted, the numbers will quickly escalate again. I get the logic about smoothing the curve, and making sure we're prepared, but it does feel like the worst is yet to come. It's going to be hard to protect the elderly and vulnerable as this ramps up again. I notice that the Chinese suggested that in Italy they should quarantining known cases, rather than tell everyone to stay in their home. Logic being that the spread within homes is keeping the numbers up (especially with multiple generations living within the same household). There's a certain logic to that, but I'm not sure that it's workable.

This is a stark example of how contagious covid-19 appears to be:
https://sfist.com/2020/03/30/super-...avirus-is-airborne-without-coughs-or-sneezes/

Murray · Mar 31, 2020

newguy said:
I notice that the Chinese suggested that in Italy they should quarantining known cases, rather than tell everyone to stay in their home. Logic being that the spread within homes is keeping the numbers up (especially with multiple generations living within the same household). There's a certain logic to that, but I'm not sure that it's workable.

Could you imagine, families being forcibly split up and people put into death camps

diablo · Mar 31, 2020

The United States’ death toll from coronavirus is now higher than that of China’s, according to the latest figures from Johns Hopkins University.

The US has reported 3,415 deaths, while in China, where the virus originated, the number stands at 3,309.

Today, Spain recorded its highest number of fatalities in a single day - 849.

newguy · Mar 31, 2020

Murray said:
Could you imagine, families being forcibly split up and people put into death camps

That's exactly it. I can see their logic behind trying to limit the spread, but the practicality and civil liberties aspects of keeping people away from family members make it a non starter. It is tricky to best know how to protect people though, for those with elderly or vulnerable family members that live with them. Not now so much, but when the restrictions are eased.

newguy · Mar 31, 2020

diablo said:
The United States’ death toll from coronavirus is now higher than that of China’s, according to the latest figures from Johns Hopkins University.

The US has reported 3,415 deaths, while in China, where the virus originated, the number stands at 3,309.

Today, Spain recorded its highest number of fatalities in a single day - 849.

Yes, it doesn't seem to let up in Spain or Italy. The US number increases don't bode well either. I get the feeling that they think they have a handle on this, but I'm not so sure.

Hopefully they will eventually use an antibody test in these hard hit areas of Spain and Italy to get a sense of how widespread this has been. If it turns out that just about everyone in some areas has had it, then we can extrapolate valuable insights from that.

Murray · Mar 31, 2020

Edwin said:
Important context...

The numbers for this month might be insignificant since there can be a few thousand either way and it wont look too out of place

Next month will probably be more telling

My guess is it will balance out over the next 2 years as the majority of the people passing away seem to be of an age and vulnerability that they were already at the later stages of their lives

Still cruel to have a year or two of life stolen from you of course

Edit> I feel a bit bad talking about things like this, one person is a tragedy a million is a statistic :/ and all that

keys · Mar 31, 2020

I think questions and answers today were more useful than past few days.

An interview answer from a US doctor may explain a curious anomaly in mortality data. But it could undermine the government mantra, so best left for the few that notice it.

3gmedia · Mar 31, 2020

Just had a phone call from my mate who is in hospital to have his stents removed from his kidneys, he had his lung removed over 10 years ago with lung cancer, hes just been told hes got covid 19. Earlier today he had a test which was negative, they done another later tonight and came back positive, his voice is croaky now, hes 78, just hope he can get through this.

newguy · Mar 31, 2020

3gmedia said:
Just had a phone call from my mate who is in hospital to have his stents removed from his kidneys, he had his lung removed over 10 years ago with lung cancer, hes just been told hes got covid 19. Earlier today he had a test which was negative, they done another later tonight and came back positive, his voice is croaky now, hes 78, just hope he can get through this.

So sorry to hear this

. The poor bloke has clearly already had his fair share of problems. He sounds like a real fighter though; I hope he manages to get past this..

3gmedia · Mar 31, 2020

newguy said:
So sorry to hear this . The poor bloke has clearly already had his fair share of problems. He sounds like a real fighter though; I hope he manages to get past this..

Thank you, he is strong minded and fairly fit, when he had his lung cancer and his lung removed he didn't need any chemo or radiotherapy so I'm fairly optimistic

newguy · Mar 31, 2020

3gmedia said:
Thank you, he is strong minded and fairly fit, when he had his lung cancer and his lung removed he didn't need any chemo or radiotherapy so I'm fairly optimistic

Yes do keep us informed. He sounds like a really resilient fellow, as getting over lung cancer is no easy task.

3gmedia · Mar 31, 2020

newguy said:
Yes do keep us informed. He sounds like a really resilient fellow, as getting over lung cancer is no easy task.

I'll keep you posted!

AssetDomains · Apr 1, 2020

3gmedia said:
Just had a phone call from my mate who is in hospital to have his stents removed from his kidneys, he had his lung removed over 10 years ago with lung cancer, hes just been told hes got covid 19. Earlier today he had a test which was negative, they done another later tonight and came back positive, his voice is croaky now, hes 78, just hope he can get through this.

Hope he's on the mend soon. Even at his age he is far more likely to survive it than not I guess that what we all should keep reminding ourselves.

For those who like to get into the numbers recent article from the lancet
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30257-7/fulltext
One statistic that did stand out for those wondering is this just as bad as the flu even in one of the most robust age groups 20-29 Covid appears to be 33 times more deadly so far.
We really really need to get some testing out so we can try and get a reliable grasp on the figures

anthony · Apr 1, 2020

563 today. The train is starting to move apace now, we're in for some pretty grim figures from now on, no one can deny this anymore.

newguy · Apr 1, 2020

anthony said:
563 today. The train is starting to move apace now, we're in for some pretty grim figures from now on, no one can deny this anymore.

Indeed. I dread to think what the US figures will be in a weeks time. 2000 deaths a day wouldn't be at all surprising, and some states don't even have any kind of restrictions in place.