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Corona please read very important

Discussion in 'The Bar' started by dougs, Mar 15, 2020.

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  1. newguy United Kingdom

    newguy Well-Known Member

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    Disheartening numbers again from Italy. 2,107 new infections (+837 deaths) compared with Monday's figure of 1,648. And of course an increase in our numbers too. There's so much we still don't know about how this will pan out. The toll it could potentially take as it works its way through the population doesn't bear thinking about.

    It seems to me, that as soon as lock down is lifted, the numbers will quickly escalate again. I get the logic about smoothing the curve, and making sure we're prepared, but it does feel like the worst is yet to come. It's going to be hard to protect the elderly and vulnerable as this ramps up again. I notice that the Chinese suggested that in Italy they should quarantining known cases, rather than tell everyone to stay in their home. Logic being that the spread within homes is keeping the numbers up (especially with multiple generations living within the same household). There's a certain logic to that, but I'm not sure that it's workable.

    This is a stark example of how contagious covid-19 appears to be:
    https://sfist.com/2020/03/30/super-...avirus-is-airborne-without-coughs-or-sneezes/
     
  2. Domain Forum

    Acorn Domains Elite Member

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    articles.co.uk
     
  3. Murray

    Murray Well-Known Member

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    Could you imagine, families being forcibly split up and people put into death camps
     
  4. diablo

    diablo Well-Known Member

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    The United States’ death toll from coronavirus is now higher than that of China’s, according to the latest figures from Johns Hopkins University.

    The US has reported 3,415 deaths, while in China, where the virus originated, the number stands at 3,309.

    Today, Spain recorded its highest number of fatalities in a single day - 849.
     
  5. newguy United Kingdom

    newguy Well-Known Member

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    That's exactly it. I can see their logic behind trying to limit the spread, but the practicality and civil liberties aspects of keeping people away from family members make it a non starter. It is tricky to best know how to protect people though, for those with elderly or vulnerable family members that live with them. Not now so much, but when the restrictions are eased.
     
  6. newguy United Kingdom

    newguy Well-Known Member

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    Yes, it doesn't seem to let up in Spain or Italy. The US number increases don't bode well either. I get the feeling that they think they have a handle on this, but I'm not so sure.

    Hopefully they will eventually use an antibody test in these hard hit areas of Spain and Italy to get a sense of how widespread this has been. If it turns out that just about everyone in some areas has had it, then we can extrapolate valuable insights from that.
     
  7. Murray

    Murray Well-Known Member

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    The numbers for this month might be insignificant since there can be a few thousand either way and it wont look too out of place

    Next month will probably be more telling

    My guess is it will balance out over the next 2 years as the majority of the people passing away seem to be of an age and vulnerability that they were already at the later stages of their lives

    Still cruel to have a year or two of life stolen from you of course

    Edit> I feel a bit bad talking about things like this, one person is a tragedy a million is a statistic :/ and all that
     
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2020
  8. keys United Kingdom

    keys Well-Known Member Full Member

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    I think questions and answers today were more useful than past few days.

    An interview answer from a US doctor may explain a curious anomaly in mortality data. But it could undermine the government mantra, so best left for the few that notice it.
     
  9. 3gmedia United Kingdom

    3gmedia Active Member

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    Just had a phone call from my mate who is in hospital to have his stents removed from his kidneys, he had his lung removed over 10 years ago with lung cancer, hes just been told hes got covid 19. Earlier today he had a test which was negative, they done another later tonight and came back positive, his voice is croaky now, hes 78, just hope he can get through this. :(
     
  10. newguy United Kingdom

    newguy Well-Known Member

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    So sorry to hear this :(. The poor bloke has clearly already had his fair share of problems. He sounds like a real fighter though; I hope he manages to get past this..
     
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  11. 3gmedia United Kingdom

    3gmedia Active Member

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    Thank you, he is strong minded and fairly fit, when he had his lung cancer and his lung removed he didn't need any chemo or radiotherapy so I'm fairly optimistic
     
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  12. newguy United Kingdom

    newguy Well-Known Member

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    Yes do keep us informed. He sounds like a really resilient fellow, as getting over lung cancer is no easy task.
     
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  13. 3gmedia United Kingdom

    3gmedia Active Member

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    I'll keep you posted!
     
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  14. AssetDomains

    AssetDomains Well-Known Member

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    Hope he's on the mend soon. Even at his age he is far more likely to survive it than not I guess that what we all should keep reminding ourselves.

    For those who like to get into the numbers recent article from the lancet
    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30257-7/fulltext
    One statistic that did stand out for those wondering is this just as bad as the flu even in one of the most robust age groups 20-29 Covid appears to be 33 times more deadly so far.
    We really really need to get some testing out so we can try and get a reliable grasp on the figures
     
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  15. anthony United Kingdom

    anthony Well-Known Member

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    563 today. The train is starting to move apace now, we're in for some pretty grim figures from now on, no one can deny this anymore.
     
  16. newguy United Kingdom

    newguy Well-Known Member

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    Indeed. I dread to think what the US figures will be in a weeks time. 2000 deaths a day wouldn't be at all surprising, and some states don't even have any kind of restrictions in place.
     
  17. BREWSTERS United Kingdom

    BREWSTERS Well-Known Member

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    upload_2020-4-1_16-53-5.png

    Since last Thursday when the Gov announced it was changing the way it counted deaths, the numbers have gone up sharply.

    As of just now, 163 cases are reported as serious or critical...so should see a markedly lower number of deaths tomorrow. But I bet we don't!

    What is strange is the extremely low number of recovered (135 as above or 179 according to Johns Hopkins Uni) which is at odds with many other countries. Belgium have roughly half the number of cases as the UK, roughly a third the number of deaths, but 12 times the number recovered.

    Doesn't make sense unless using different criteria to record events. Which is entirely possible, especially when reading things such as this on the JHU* site "Confirmed cases include presumptive positive cases." When did presumption equal confirmed? It's nonsense.

    Sweden - no lockdown - extrapolate the cases and deaths to equal the UK population size and they have more cases than UK (32650 to 29841) yet two-thirds the number of deaths....with no lockdown.
     
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  18. Murray

    Murray Well-Known Member

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    I saw they were going to start counting people who die at home suspected of it, without even being tested.. which seems a bit iffy

    Are they now including that in daily numbers or is it still just NHS confirmed cases?
     
  19. newguy United Kingdom

    newguy Well-Known Member

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    It's a tricky balance as due to how busy the NHS is, they tell a lot of people to stay at home if they have mild symptoms. No doubt sometimes these situations develop fast and the person dies before they can receive hospital treatment. I appreciate that possibly there's room for some people being misdiagnosed, but it does seem clear that the numbers are rising, just as we see in just about every other country. It pays not to always go with the government line, but at the same time, it's clear that this situation is happening and is troubling, not a conspiracy or conjured out of nothing.
     
  20. Edwin

    Edwin Well-Known Member Exclusive Member

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    The official numbers coming out of the Department of Health and Social Care daily are deaths in hospital only.

    The wider community figure will be supplied once a week in arrears (by the ONS, I believe).
     
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  21. bonusmedia

    bonusmedia Well-Known Member

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    The number reported serious/critical for the UK at worldometers has been wrong from the beginning, it's been pointed out here before.

    Different countries and systems are using different criteria, there isn't a universal standard. The deputy CMO has pointed this out in daily briefings and warned about the problems with making direct comparisons.

    There is a lag of 2+ weeks between any measure taken and seeing the effect on infections and deaths.
    Deaths are the more reliable figure, owing to big differences in testing numbers.

    In the UK, there has been criticism of the lag in reporting deaths. There will be criticism if they announce deaths too early. Whatever they do, there will be people criticising.

    JHU's 'presumptive positive' does not mean what you think it means:

    From the CDC:
    "To assist our partners, CDC has developed a form that provides a standardized approach to reporting PUIs, presumptive positive cases (individuals with at least one respiratory specimen that tested positive for the virus that causes COVID-19 at a state or local laboratory) and laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases (individuals with at least one respiratory specimen that tested positive for the virus that causes COVID-19 at a CDC laboratory). These data are needed to track the impact of the outbreak and inform public health response".

    I'd suggest watching the daily briefings, they've covered a lot of this.
     
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