Corona please read very important

[diablo]

Unfortunately, the UK government doesn't pay nearly enough attention to what the WHO says. To all our costs!...

WHO, in common with all organisations, are not infallible.

 

[newguy]

Why? I mean that as a genuine question, not argumentatively.

We live on an island. Suddenly that's a big plus. If everyone is locked down - I mean a draconian lockdown, much tighter than now - then within a couple of weeks or so the virus will die out here because it has literally nowhere to go.

Then you test everyone entering the country by every route, while people already in the UK can resume their on-hold lives. Maybe even clamp down on tourism in some way that makes it extremely unattractive to visit the UK for a few months while the rest of the world weathers the worst of the pandemic. In parallel, support the heck out of businesses connected to tourism so that they will be there for the future.

(Of course you'd have to curtail outbound tourism too, but needs must.)

There's no reason for the virus to flare up again in a big way with the above steps.

It still wouldn't be "life as normal" but it would be much much closer than the current situation, and safer too.

I'd thought along similar lines myself, as technically if we'd battened down the hatched very early, we might have been able to stop the spread here completely. The problem is though, that as it becomes more and more prevalent elsewhere, unless you totally stop all tourism for say a year+ it's all but impossible to keep out - since we know how contagious it becomes once someone has it, and also that the tests do not pick up every case. Even if we closed things off for a year, all it takes is a handful of people to come in, as happened with those coming back from Italy, and suddenly we're on the same trajectory.

As you say I don't think there are any easy choices here. I think the most realistic hope in the medium term is that a treatment is found to be somewhat effective, making the virus less potent for those in vulnerable groups. As much as I hope a vaccine appears, I think this will have already worked its way through half of the population before it sees the light of day. If we can do our best to protect the vulnerable and elderly during that time, it may well peter out, with healthier people getting it and developing immunity for 'hopefully' a significant period of time.

 

[diablo]

... Even if we closed things off for a year, all it takes is a handful of people to come in, as happened with those coming back from Italy, and suddenly we're on the same trajectory.

Italy wasn't testing those coming in at that time.

 

[newguy]

Italy wasn't testing those coming in at that time.

I meant, that the virus appeared to be effectively seeded here from several people coming from the UK after visiting Italy. I'm just giving an example really of how the wider the spread of this is, the harder it is to keep people out. We didn't test those people, but these tests are not 100%, and all it takes really is for a handful of people to go undetected and then you have a similar eventual outcome.

I do appreciate the testing plays an important role though. Developments such as this rapid test can certainly help us in this fight: https://www.cambridgeindependent.co...be-deployed-at-addenbrookes-hospital-9105140/ Really it's the asymptomatic people that are the wildcard though, as they go under the radar and spread the virus to others.

 

[diablo]

I meant, that the virus appeared to be effectively seeded here from several people coming from the UK after visiting Italy. I'm just giving an example really of how the wider the spread of this is, the harder it is to keep people out. We didn't test those people, but these tests are not 100%, and all it takes really is for a handful of people to go undetected and then you have a similar eventual outcome.

I do appreciate the testing plays an important role though. Developments such as this rapid test can certainly help us in this fight: https://www.cambridgeindependent.co...be-deployed-at-addenbrookes-hospital-9105140/ Really it's the asymptomatic people that are the wildcard though, as they go under the radar and spread the virus to others.

Sorry, have re-read your post. I should have said UK wasn't testing those coming from Italy at the time.

You could always quarantine all those coming to the UK so no need to rely on testing.

But I take your point, it only takes someone infected to get in (illegal immigrants in lorry, for example) for all that effort to be undone.

That's why I said earlier Edwin's idea would work in theory. Practice might be a very different matter.

 

[Murray]

The whole world would have had to have agreed to be cautious, can't have some countries doing it and others not

Imagine all of Europe being super cautious for 6 months, meanwhile it's working it's way slowly through another continent and as soon as we open back up oh.. back to where we started

Seems like we're going through a controlled burn

Slow it down, let it take 6 months going through the majority of the population instead of 2 so people can get suitable medical care if they need it

Then in a few months things can get back to more normal rather than a 2 year lockdown

 

[diablo]

The whole world would have had to have agreed to be cautious, can't have some countries doing it and others not

Imagine all of Europe being super cautious for 6 months, meanwhile it's working it's way slowly through another continent and as soon as we open back up oh.. back to where we started

Seems like we're going through a controlled burn

Slow it down, let it take 6 months going through the majority of the population instead of 2 so people can get suitable medical care if they need it

Then in a few months things can get back to more normal rather than a 2 year lockdown

You're assuming Europe would be super-cautious for six months, then through the doors open. Why would it do that? It would use quarantine, etc.,

Nobody knows if the controlled burn will work. It's a theory that has been put into practice and we have yet to see the outcome. We're guinea pigs whatever they choose!

 

[PoshTiger]

Italy just announced the number they are giving the media for death toll is likely 500% inflated.

The true number of covid deaths is closer to 12% of the number they reported to you. Direct from from their national health Minister.

When Italy said: "3000 covid deaths." they meant was "we've had 3000 people who test positive for sara-cov-2 die for various reasons. 360 of them died from covid 19."

Taken from Reddit - food for thought..

 

[Murray]

Why would it do that?

At a certain point of doing it economically wouldn't things start to meltdown? the consequences of a sustained lockdown are scarier than the virus

At what point would there start to be shortages, riots, social breakdown

 

[diablo]

At a certain point of doing it economically wouldn't things start to meltdown? the consequences of a sustained lockdown are scarier than the virus

At what point would there start to be shortages, riots, social breakdown

Quarantine would be for those entering a virus-free Europe, not for those living in it where life would have returned to normality (all theory ).

 

[Murray]

Quarantine would be for those entering a virus-free Europe, not for those living in it where life would have returned to normality (all theory ).

What about the impact on global tourism? airlines? cruises? hotels?

Can that collapse within itself without knocking over other dominos and everything coming down

 

[diablo]

Italy just announced the number they are giving the media for death toll is likely 500% inflated.

The true number of covid deaths is closer to 12% of the number they reported to you. Direct from from their national health Minister.

When Italy said: "3000 covid deaths." they meant was "we've had 3000 people who test positive for sara-cov-2 die for various reasons. 360 of them died from covid 19."

Taken from Reddit - food for thought..

This was in the papers over a week ago.

To be clear, 12% of deaths were directly caused by covid-19.

“On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.

This does not mean that Covid-19 did not contribute to a patient's death, rather it demonstrates that Italy's fatality toll has surged as a large proportion of patients have underlying health conditions.

Which is what we already knew. Those with pre-existing conditions are most likely to die from contracting covid-19.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...se/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/

 

[diablo]

What about the impact on global tourism? airlines? cruises? hotels?

Can that collapse within itself without knocking over other dominos and everything coming down

Just holiday within Europe.

Like I say, it's a theory that might kill the virus dead. Of course there will be consequences for other aspects of life.

 

[Murray]

Just holiday within Europe.

In 2018 there were 139 million inbound arrivals to destinations within the EU are from outside of European countries

How much money do those 139 million people put into Europe? billions and billions I'd imagine

 

[diablo]

In 2018 there were 139 million inbound arrivals to destinations within the EU are from outside of European countries

How much money do those 139 million people put into Europe? billions and billions I'd imagine

And how many Europeans holiday outside of Europe? I'm guessing they spend billions too.

PS This is my last response to this. It is a theory. It isn't going to happen!

 

[Edwin]

BTW, don't know how many people are following the bigger picture stuff, but unemployment in the USA rose by close to 10 million people in the last two weeks, and is projected to pass the 2008 financial crisis level soon.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...aims-doubled-to-record-6-65-million-last-week

 

[Murray]

And how many Europeans holiday outside of Europe? I'm guessing they spend billions too.

PS This is my last response to this. It is a theory. It isn't going to happen!

Well exactly, the world is too interlinked financially, it would all start coming down

The theory/cure seems worse than the problem long term

 

[diablo]

BTW, don't know how many people are following the bigger picture stuff, but unemployment in the USA rose by close to 10 million people in the last two weeks, and is projected to pass the 2008 financial crisis level soon.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...aims-doubled-to-record-6-65-million-last-week

A virus has exposed the fundamental weakness of economies the world over, all underpinned by artificially low interest rates and cronyism.

 

[martin-s]

Likely as not we haven't even reached the tipping point yet. It could still get a lot worse, not just in terms of deaths but in terms of society breaking down.

There are still a lot of people falling through the cracks of government help.

All bloody scary to be honest.

 

[bonusmedia]

@Admin