If we leave the EU?

[dougs]

Irrelevant of your voting position the marekst will be in turmoil for the next week.

Share markets are dropping
Pound and Euro is dropping
Gold price is going up

What you doing to protect assets?

Doug

 

[bonusmedia]

I bought dollars last week - also sold some UK shares and bought Apple and Google etc
It's a weird thing to be hoping to lose money... (I expect to if we remain)

 

[Edwin]

Unless banks go bust, cash should be ok, shouldn't it? I don't mean "under your mattress", I mean in the bank (or spread across multiple banking groups if you want to take maximum advantage of the FSCS insurance) If you don't foresee a need for large amounts of foreign currency it should be less personally relevant what happens to forex rates since you're banking pounds and spending pounds. And in a time of extreme volatility, a cash holding won't make you money but at least it won't lose you money either (except in "opportunity cost")

Also, if you fix your mortgage long-term (10 years plus fix) then you can ride out whatever happens to interest rates. It's a bet with low downside (interest rates could drop further but they're already at near record lows) but potentially nasty upside (in the last 30-35 years there have been times of >10% rates when millions lost their homes.)

Of course there's protection, and then there's profit. I'd be interested to hear where people think the latter lies.

 

[bonusmedia]

I don't see hedging against the falling pound as profit-seeking - it's simply preserving my spending ability.
If the pound drops, prices of imports go up

 

[dougs]

Dumped all my uk shares
Now in pounds
Now what to invest in?

People are saying Pharma etc as has stability of global markets.

Is profit in US companies, hence get stability on shares but also arbitrage on potential currency drop of the pound?

 

[Edwin]

I wonder if there's a way to make an "all or nothing" type bet in such a way that it returns much more than a straight bet on Remain/Leave would, but where you can't lose more than your stake.

I don't know much about it, which is why I'm asking, but maybe there's some kind of leveraged forex trade that could provide what I'm talking about? (so that eg if the pound plunges >5% you make a ton of money but if it doesn't you just lose your investment)

 

[Edwin]

Dumped all my uk shares
Now in pounds
Now what to invest in?

People are saying Pharma etc as has stability of global markets.

Is profit in US companies, hence get stability on shares but also arbitrage on potential currency drop of the pound?

Property? Even if things go mega pear-shaped, it's almost impossible to conceive of a scenario where any future government tries to take people's main home away. There would be riots in the streets before that happened. Could be a good time to "trade up" the property ladder? Even an emergency wealth tax (like in Greece) should leave one's main property untouched.

 

[dougs]

Can't do it in the next few days though.....looking for something to get into easily and out of easily. Dollars and gold? But what else?

Dollar climbs but also shares in Us company that benefits from UK exit......I ma hedging my bet as are many hedge funds now.....

Or maybe as the days get closer, the markets, the pound and euro get killed, the man in the street sees the value of his pension etc dropping...he goes into scare mode and votes IN....self regulating system

 

[spiderspider]

Why can't this just be merged with the other thread?

Seems irrelevant having two threads of SSDD.

Otherwise it will just turn into the same as the other one:


YOU'RE WRONG

 

[dougs]

Because this is asking what would you do to protect assets if we leave nothing about wether we should leave.

Sorry check the markets, price of gold, dollar v pound/euro, German bond market etc etc. All dropping those are happening. The experts and the markets said it would happen if we left, they are doing what they said to protect their position..

This is not a thread about wether we should leave it is what you should do if we do?

 

[ian]

Well, the time to buy into gold was a few months ago (I missed it too!). Aside from that, I've just bought an expensive car haha
<------

 

[spiderspider]

Sorry check the markets, price of gold, dollar v pound/euro, German bond market etc etc. All dropping those are happening.

The global market is slowing down. That is not caused by Brexit.

No point in running around like a headless chicken. We're not going to turn into North Korea.

 

[Edwin]

This article had some interesting suggestions in it, based on possible "winning" sectors under a brexit scenario...

How to invest if you’re sure we’re heading for Brexit
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/03/how-to-invest-if-youre-sure-were-heading-for-brexit/

 

[websaway]

Unless banks go bust, cash should be ok, shouldn't it? I don't mean "under your mattress", I mean in the bank (or spread across multiple banking groups if you want to take maximum advantage of the FSCS insurance) If you don't foresee a need for large amounts of foreign currency it should be less personally relevant what happens to forex rates since you're banking pounds and spending pounds. And in a time of extreme volatility, a cash holding won't make you money but at least it won't lose you money either (except in "opportunity cost")

Also, if you fix your mortgage long-term (10 years plus fix) then you can ride out whatever happens to interest rates. It's a bet with low downside (interest rates could drop further but they're already at near record lows) but potentially nasty upside (in the last 30-35 years there have been times of >10% rates when millions lost their homes.)

Of course there's protection, and then there's profit. I'd be interested to hear where people think the latter lies.

Can I remind you of what Paul Johnson of the IFS Said:
If we turned out to have a 20-40 billion pound
hit to the public finances that would be a much smaller hit than
the effect of the 2008 recession, it would be below the
downgrades to the forecasts made by the OBR between the
budgets in 2011 and 2013. We have coped with those. In fact –
they are the Treasury themselves forecast that if we leave the
recession will be the shallowest since 1956. It is not Armageddon.

 

[websaway]

Or maybe as the days get closer, the markets, the pound and euro get killed, the man in the street sees the value of his pension etc dropping...he goes into scare mode and votes IN....self regulating system

That is Camerons strategy, if it blows up in his face the chancellor takes the can.

 

[websaway]

Because this is asking what would you do to protect assets if we leave nothing about wether we should leave.

Sorry check the markets, price of gold, dollar v pound/euro, German bond market etc etc. All dropping those are happening. The experts and the markets said it would happen if we left, they are doing what they said to protect their position..

This is not a thread about wether we should leave it is what you should do if we do?

You are exaggerating the situation to such an extent that anyone who knows can see through it. No one should expect this to happen without market movements, when your prime minister is predicting financial Armageddon. With 8 days to go the pound has lost 3 cents.

 

[websaway]

Dumped all my uk shares
Now in pounds
Now what to invest in?

People are saying Pharma etc as has stability of global markets.

Is profit in US companies, hence get stability on shares but also arbitrage on potential currency drop of the pound?

According to your predictions anything that is invested in Dollars. Surprised you took a hit on the UK stocks , you must be very pessimistic or a day trader or trading on margins. That doesn't affect most people, they don't speculate short term.

 

[Edwin]

This is NOT the "will it or won't it happen" thread!

This thread is for those interested in planning investment mitigation strategies to discuss options.

Please keep the commentary about "will it won't it" in the other thread. I really don't think that's a difficult thing to ask for. Thank you.

 

[martin-s]

I'm not of the view that long term investments will suffer either way. And I'm not about to start second guessing the market, because there's as much potential to lose doing that as win.

 

[TallBloke]

No one fancies investing in domains then?