UK Leaves the EU - What happens next?

[bonusmedia]

I think I do.

Do you understand the difference between being part of a single market & having access to a single market?

China has access to the EU single market. It does not pay in. It does not allow free movement of labour. It is not part of the single market.

Come now Gimpy, you're being facetious. On that logic just about everyone has 'access' to every market

Access to the single market is commonly understood to mean receiving the benefits of the single market.
For example:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...-johnson-pipe-dream-over-single-market-access
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36640008

There's not much point having access to a special discount club but without the special discounts, is there?

To get back to the point - leaders of the Brexit camp, such as Johnson, want to retain tariff-free, quota-free access to the single market - i.e. retain the current benefits. That is only possible by paying into the system and retaining free movement of labour - such as the Norwegian model.

 

[bonusmedia]

Yes but you thought the IN campaign would win. You don't really know anything until a dead horse kicks you.

I did - but I was only 4% out Bit of a difference between that and UKIP winning a majority in a general election!

(If UKIP do win a majority in a general election they won't have to worry about immigration, there will be a mass exodus)

 

[gimpydog]

What have I missed - factual only.

"British government borrowing costs fell below 1 per cent for the first time in history on Monday"
https://next.ft.com/content/6286ad2a-3c3e-11e6-8716-a4a71e8140b0​

 

[VSC]

"British government borrowing costs fell below 1 per cent for the first time in history on Monday"
https://next.ft.com/content/6286ad2a-3c3e-11e6-8716-a4a71e8140b0

and from the same article, the CONs:

Heightened stress also sent the UK currency to another 30-year low under $1.32, while sharp falls in stock markets led RBS and Barclays to briefly suspend trading in shares.

 

[bonusmedia]

"British government borrowing costs fell below 1 per cent for the first time in history on Monday"
https://next.ft.com/content/6286ad2a-3c3e-11e6-8716-a4a71e8140b0​

This is what happens when investors are scared - government borrowing costs fell like a stone in the banking crisis. People pulling their money out of trading companies is not good for the economy

If we get a government that decides to end austerity and embark on a massive public investment/spending programme then we can take advantage, it doesn't seem likely though

 

[gimpydog]

Come now Gimpy, you're being facetious.

You say facetious, I say accurate.

On that logic just about everyone has 'access' to every market

Yep. That's my point

There's not much point having access to a special discount club but without the special discounts, is there?

There is if you want to supply the club, but buy your own goods cheaper elsewhere.

Food from Africa, for example. The more we trade with them, the less aid we will need to send. Win-win.

To get back to the point - leaders of the Brexit camp, such as Johnson, want to retain tariff-free, quota-free access to the single market - i.e. retain the current benefits. That is only possible by paying into the system and retaining free movement of labour - such as the Norwegian model.

Let's wait & see who's who & what's what when the time comes, otherwise people get unnecessarily stressed & emotional.

 

[bonusmedia]

Five models for post-Brexit UK trade

In case anyone has forgotten, the Norwegian model involves free movement and paying the same amount in per capita as we do right now - just without any say

 

[gimpydog]

and from the same article, the CONs:

You asked for things you had missed.
Don't shoot the messenger

I think the markets were due a correction, anyway.

This is what happens when investors are scared -

But even you must accept that cheaper debt is very welcome to a country £trillions in debt?

 

[websaway]

Small prices to be paid for our sovereignty and to be democratic.

 

[bonusmedia]

You asked for things you had missed.
I think the markets were due a correction, anyway.

View attachment 1260



But even you must accept that cheaper debt is very welcome to a country £trillions in debt?

Cheaper debt is theoretically welcome - just not when it comes at a greater cost to investment and growth.

Saving £1k on your mortgage is great but not if you lose £2k of income

 

[VSC]

Let's wait & see who's who & what's what when the time comes, otherwise people get unnecessarily stressed & emotional.

That's all we can do ... but we cannot assume that the UK will not have to "give up something" in exchange,

When countries agree trade deals though, it is not a one way street. We want your goods - well we want that in exchange ...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35473279

 

[VSC]

Small prices to be paid for our sovereignty and to be democratic.

Can I ask what people think about the sovereignty "lost" with the UK's membership of NATO, WTO and the others?

 

[websaway]

I did - but I was only 4% out Bit of a difference between that and UKIP winning a majority in a general election!

(If UKIP do win a majority in a general election they won't have to worry about immigration, there will be a mass exodus)

You said that about the OUT vote.

 

[websaway]

Can I ask what people think about the sovereignty "lost" with the UK's membership of NATO, WTO and the others?

their ambitions on control are different. The EU was heading towards a European state.

 

[gimpydog]

Five models for post-Brexit UK trade

Five stages of Brexit

I think you're through the first four already. ​

 

[Edwin]

The article below put forward an extremely credible case for why the FTSE 100 index should not be seen as the best way to judge brexit, because the companies in it are so huge that they're multinational and therefore only partially affected by what's happening domestically in the UK.

Why we should be looking at the FTSE 250 and not the FTSE 100 to gauge the impact of Brexit
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...king-at-the-ftse-250-and-not-the-ftse-100-to/

As the FT describes the FTSE 250:

The equity index, in simple terms, comprises medium-sized manufacturers, service companies and retailers, who unlike the very large international constituents of the FTSE 100, are likely to be highly exposed to any UK recession.

https://next.ft.com/content/314ed068-3c2d-11e6-8716-a4a71e8140b0 (you may have to Google a quote from within my excerpt above to get a link to see the article without a subscription to the FT)

For reference, the FTSE 250 has had back-to-back 7% losses, the worst since the days immediately following the hurricane in 1987.

 

[bonusmedia]

You say facetious, I say accurate.

View attachment 1259




Yep. That's my point



There is if you want to supply the club, but buy your own goods cheaper elsewhere.

Food from Africa, for example. The more we trade with them, the less aid we will need to send. Win-win.



Let's wait & see who's who & what's what when the time comes, otherwise people get unnecessarily stressed & emotional.

Tariffs work both ways.

I'm all for increased trade with Africa, but who's going to tell our farmers their businesses are no longer viable?

It has been made quite clear that we are not going to get some magical free trade deal where we get to keep all the benefits with none of the costs.

The time is now. Sadly we don't actually have any experienced international trade negotiators because the EU has handled negotiations for the last 40 years

 

[cannybagotudor]

Small prices to be paid for our sovereignty and to be democratic.

Unfortunately if they (government) decide to join the single market, we lose both, free movement exactly as it is plus other concessions. It's why they do not want Farage involved, boris has bottled it, indeed if they UK dare join the single market all this was for nothing, giving away free movement which a big reason why people voted leave in the first place. Ok technically we would retain sovereignty but the concessions required would eat a little into that as well. I would prefer not joining the single market, but instead controlling borders and creating new trade agreements, the EU needs our trade like we need theirs, Germany know this better than most which is exactly why Merkel said it shouldn't be nasty. The markets are a joke, not a thing has changed and will not for at least 2 years +, it's scaremongering but it has to pass or they'll burn themselves. Bank of England a let down, should have taken action this morning to send a positive message, likely osbourne who should be out by now, pulling the strings to make is lies look semi true.

 

[bonusmedia]

You said that about the OUT vote.

No I didn't. You can't just make things up

 

[Edwin]

To summarise the debate, which lasted about 2.5 hours.

Q: Prime Minister, what is the answer to X?
A: That's for the next government to answer.

Q: Prime Minister, can you reassure me about Y?
A: That's for the next government to do.

Q: Prime Minister, will Z be affected by Brexit?
A: Not immediately. Not until the UK leaves the EU. After that, it will be down to whatever agreements the next government negotiates.

I'm guessing there were perhaps 100-150 questions which broadly broke down along the lines of the above. There were no substantive answers forthcoming. I doubt the markets will have been reassured by the performance.