UK Leaves the EU - What happens next?

[BREWSTERS]

An economic crash isn't like a car crash. Huge bang, tinkle of glass, pieces flying everywhere, over in seconds...

It's a long, slow, painful collapse.

What possible reason is there to believe that the damage magically ends with EasyJet's announcement today? This is going to go on, and on, and on...

How would you describe the crash of 2008 then? I'd say that was a huge bang, glass flying everywhere etc.

 

[BREWSTERS]

Beat me to it, it shows the weasel that osbourne is, suddenly changing course because his job is well and truly on the line. The reality is now that all the austerity measures were indeed for nothing as the government will now borrow to avoid raising taxes, the complete opposite of what he said. We need a real chancellor now not a looney tune like osbourne.

He is a slimy little turd isn't he...cutting tax deals for major foreign corporations while forcing austerity on us.

 

[armistice]

According to the Guardian Live news feed:

Sky News is reporting that EasyJet has opened talks with regulators in the EU about relocating its headquarters from the UK.

The budget airline is currently based in Luton, where it employs about 1,000 people.

Still on the subject of aviation, easyJet says it has started the process of acquiring an air operator certificate (AOC). An AOC would be issued by another EU country to give the airline continued access to Europe's single aviation market.

Reports suggested the AOC application was the first step towards possibly moving Easyjet's legal headquarters outside the UK.

However, the airline stressed that it had no plans to move its main headquarters from Luton - "our home for 20 years".

After several days of pretty steep falls, easyJet shares are up almost 1% at £10.96. The stock has slipped 37% this year.

 

[gimpydog]

I do agree it's probably the biggest train wreck in history.
Gravy everywhere.

Remainers will let the matter drop when the union is definitively saved, the supposedly fantastic trade deals have been signed and ratified, the effects of the loss of EU membership and EU funding on science, business and the regions has been mitigated, the status of the millions of EU citizens living here and UK citizens living in other parts of the EU has been protected etc. etc.

Exactly, sterling will take a little longer but I would not be surprised if it hits the $1.40's in a couple of weeks once the hysteria has effectively died down

Every other major economy has been desperate to discreetly devalue their currency since '08. We should be glad ours is where it is.

 

[VSC]

I was going to reply to several of the posts today ... but, hell, I'll just be accused of bring the country down, not understanding properly, of wanting to overturn a democratic decision, told to shut up, and so on.

Welcome to the new democracy!

Anyway, instead, for my final post ...

imagined headline on the Sun / Daily Mirror / Express ...

Why we voted Brexit - Bloody EU Gulls Stealing Crisps from our Great British Mouths

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/01/crafty-seagull-steals-packet-of-crisps-from-greggs/

Adieu!

 

[cannybagotudor]

I'd love to see sterling hit $2 again, I got some incredible deals back then, realistically around the $1.60-80 mark, in time of course, will be nice. The UK is now at it's lowest point, sterling wise, the US has many issues which will weaken it yet to surface and the locked in trade agreement with the EU which obama so desperately wanted the UK to be in, will be weakened by the fact we won't be in it.

Hopefully the media now lay off brexit in the coming days and create a more motivated attitude toward it, all candidates are uniform in saying it will happen but I trust May more than the others, she hasn't tried to jockey for position or been outspoken, I know she was for remain but she has accepted the result, was not outspoken throughout the whole campaign and seems pretty level headed to me. Gove has had the osbourne hatchet job done on him, first to stand against Johnson, then osbourne saw the deck was pointing toward May and now probably saying to everyone to make him stand down and lose all credibility, job complete on all the high profile conservative leave campaigners and they fell for it hook, line and sinker. Even if he still stands, by standing against someone who wins I doubt a cabinet job will be on offer, it's not how politics work, it's surprising and frightening how gullible some politicians can be.

 

[martin-s]

It's a long, slow, painful collapse.

Whether all the bad news stuff ends up happening or not, you're stuck with Brexit. Posting so much misery isn't helping anyone - and probably most of all not you.

Sooner or later, everyone has to bite the bullet and get on with life

There's lots of great stuff about Brexit and the financial stuff will take care of itself, because it has to.

 

[websaway]

Biggest lesson learned.
You can't predict the markets with much degree of certainty, trying to has made the most experienced dealers on the planet look silly. What you can do is learn to have an excuse for every time you get it wrong, and on the rare occasion you get it right shout it from the highest place available.

Biggest problem with the remainers on this forum is they are still ignorant to the reasons the vote went for leave, and the extent of the victory.
We have been in the EU for over 40 years, a lot of people have been born in that time and most people have lived over half their lives within that union. Under normal circumstances you would expect most people to settle for the status quo ( as did the Scots on independance ), but they did not, it was a far greater revolution than the 52% score line suggests. Had I have been one of the ignorant or self interest remainers, I would by now have familiarised myself with the realities of what happened to cause this seismic shift in our countries direction. Only then could I look on the future with the necessary positive attitude.

 

[bonusmedia]

Whether all the bad news stuff ends up happening or not, you're stuck with Brexit. Posting so much misery isn't helping anyone - and probably most of all not you.

Sooner or later, everyone has to bite the bullet and get on with life

There's lots of great stuff about Brexit and the financial stuff will take care of itself, because it has to.

Everyone has to accept the result. It's fair to say many of us have found that difficult. It's also fair to say that the result means enormous changes, whereas a remain vote would not have.

For many of us this is the most radical change in our politics in our lifetime. We haven't begun to work out what it means. There are huge shifts on a daily basis. It's all very well saying 'get on with it' - what 'it' is currently in a state of flux. For example, anyone doing international business is dealing with an awful lot of uncertainty at the moment. It's become very difficult to make big decisions in terms of investment and future planning.

I'm interested in what Edwin has to say and he has every right to post his views. Nothing against you Martin but there is quite a bit of puerile gloating going on and some members seem solely interested in winding others up.

There are good and bad aspects to Brexit and I'm interested in both - but not on the level of tabloid goodies and baddies.

The ideal for me would be to split this into two threads - one for bullshit and taunting, and another for intelligent debate. Sadly I can't imagine it would work

 

[bonusmedia]

Biggest lesson learned.
You can't predict the markets with much degree of certainty, trying to has made the most experienced dealers on the planet look silly. What you can do is learn to have an excuse for every time you get it wrong, and on the rare occasion you get it right shout it from the highest place available.

Biggest problem with the remainers on this forum is they are still ignorant to the reasons the vote went for leave, and the extent of the victory.
We have been in the EU for over 40 years, a lot of people have been born in that time and most people have lived over half their lives within that union. Under normal circumstances you would expect most people to settle for the status quo ( as did the Scots on independance ), but they did not, it was a far greater revolution than the 52% score line suggests. Had I have been one of the ignorant or self interest remainers, I would by now have familiarised myself with the realities of what happened to cause this seismic shift in our countries direction. Only then could I look on the future with the necessary positive attitude.

The 'experienced dealers' made money, don't worry. Volatility is opportunity for traders - it's the 'man on the street' who loses out.

It would be difficult for anyone on this forum to remain ignorant of your reasons to vote leave. The extent of the victory is extremely clear - a 4% margin.

Your repeated claim that remainers are solely motivated by self interest is incorrect. I am beginning to wonder if you might be projecting your own motivations.

I'm almost certain to make more money from Brexit than I would have from remaining. I believe the country will be poorer, but in the long term it may well balance out or shift into profit. For me, that possibility did not outweigh the downsides.

 

[Sound]

Maybe people could post on how Brexit has affected them personally both positive and negative?

My wife gave her notice in five months ago when things looked very different, she is FD of a Footsie 250 company and is finding that recruitment company's didn't have a plan for the leave vote and is getting frustrated by the lack of direction all round.

But company's are still recruiting on a positive note.

 

[martin-s]

Nothing against you Martin but there is quite a bit of puerile gloating going on and some members seem solely interested in winding others up.

Not from me there isn't. But we have to move on from "this is the end of the world as we know it" to "where do we go from here."

Both in tone and content.

Constantly posting bad news and complaining about how awful everything is - that's a miserable thing to do. Maybe start a "bad news" thread if that's what floats your boat?

I'm more interested in "what happens next" which is what this thread is supposed to be about.

This whole debate is why allowing politics on a domain forum was a bad idea. Great for eyeballs, bad for community spirit.

 

[bonusmedia]

Maybe Osbourne is breathing a sigh of relief that there's no longer any chance of balancing the budget - lets him off the hook a bit. He may yet survive this. Much as I dislike May, there is some comfort in seeing the pendulum begin to swing back from the far right. However I can't imagine how anyone will be able to sell freedom of movement now

 

[gimpydog]

Hopefully the media now lay off brexit in the coming days

They will. Chilcot is coming.

 

[Toonz]

I noticed Gove is back to trusting experts again today. Fancy that.

Below is a sobering 23-tweet forecast from Alan White of the Economist Intelligence Unit. I have no idea how trustworthy he is but it's worth a read. It was posted on the 29th, when Johnson was odds-on favourite to win the contest.

Warning: he's an economist and an expert, so feel free to skip over or cup your hands over your ears if you're not interested.

(And before a certain person tries projecting his own proclivities onto me, let me repeat - no I don't wish any of this to happen.)

 

[bonusmedia]

They will. Chilcot is coming.

I can't imagine it's going to contain any big surprises - Maxwellisation means Blair has already read it. We all know he made some unforgiveable fuck-ups but let's face it, he's not going to be tried for war crimes.

Incidentally I've been enjoying a lovely sunny day oop noorth and now it is hailing golf balls. I blame Thatcher

 

[bonusmedia]

I noticed Gove is back to trusting experts again today. Fancy that.

Below is a sobering 23-tweet forecast from Alan White of the Economist Intelligence Unit. I have no idea how trustworthy he is but it's worth a read. It was posted on the 29th, when Johnson was odds-on favourite to win the contest.

Warning: he's an economist and an expert, so feel free to skip over or cup your hands over your ears if you're not interested.

(And before a certain person tries projecting his own proclivities onto me, let me repeat - no I don't wish any of this to happen.)

Thanks, this is very interesting.

Particularly #11. We're a service-based economy, the single market for goods is well-established but much less so for services, and we stood to benefit massively from it. We're not going to get a say now but it would be madness to exclude ourselves from this, whatever else we have to give up

 

[websaway]

I wonder if Johnson was a plant by the remainers. He deliberately put the 350 on the Bus, nobody could get a simple thing that wrong. His inability to make a real case was put down to him being him, was he meant to lose it for the in camp. He then said after the referendum that he would look at free movement. Did Gove sus the deceit suddenly and go for the jugular.
Should this go on the conspiracy thread.

 

[BREWSTERS]

I can't imagine it's going to contain any big surprises - Maxwellisation means Blair has already read it. We all know he made some unforgiveable fuck-ups but let's face it, he's not going to be tried for war crimes.

I agree, no big surprises.

But he has already been tried for war crimes along with Bush and found guilty. Malaysia was dismayed that the Hague wouldn't try them, so tried them in their absence. They actually tried serving Blair while he was in Malaysia and they couldn't because of Blair's security who got him out of the country. They were found guilty.

 

[Edwin]

A warning to Gove and Johnson - we won’t forget what you did
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...and-michael-gove-betrayed-britain-over-brexit

He makes a very good point.