Corona please read very important

Please get all the old 70 year olds plus and people with health issues you know to self isolate asap. Corona has the virality of Facebook and 10% of old people who touch it die. This will hit the UK in 7 days en mass. Please share every where.

You are early adopters and smart please read my twitter handle as it gets all the news. Fundamentally the world has lost this battle, there are millions who have Corona worldwide and not being reported. Locking a city down makes little difference as it will appear from any other country...imagine how much is in Africa and India. Now we need to save as many as possible, which is the old. So please get all the old 70 year olds plus and people with health issues you know to self isolate asap. Corona has the virality of Facebook and 10% of old people who touch it die. Please share every where.

You may think most people know this but they do not....just watch the gossip news. So tell everyone you know, try to get them to understand and tell others

Well said doug, but I'm struggling to get people to believe it (personally, not here).
How can we convince folks who are understandably in denial or shooting the messenger etc?
Who/what will they listen to?
70% may have normalcy bias

Public Health England had the data for all to see:
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

As of yesterday (Sunday 15th March), from 1,392 confirmed cases, 35 are dead. In simple terms, 1 in 40 have died. That is a truly alarming statistic. This shabby Tory government are failing to point out the reality in a way that people will sit up and take notice. These people are literally suffocating to death, which is why the cry has gone out to any companies willing to manufacture respirators.
As for the 'herd immunity threshold' (HIT), from all accounts that is estimated to be at the 80%. Think about that: 48 million would need to be infected and develop immunity to get to the HIT level. That means 1.2 million dead along the way, based on yesterday's data.

anthony said:

Public Health England had the data for all to see:
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

As of yesterday (Sunday 15th March), from 1,392 confirmed cases, 35 are dead. In simple terms, 1 in 40 have died. That is a truly alarming statistic. This shabby Tory government are failing to point out the reality in a way that people will sit up and take notice. These people are literally suffocating to death, which is why the cry has gone out to any companies willing to manufacture respirators.
As for the 'herd immunity threshold' (HIT), from all accounts that is estimated to be at the 80%. Think about that: 48 million would need to be infected and develop immunity to get to the HIT level. That means 1.2 million dead along the way, based on yesterday's data.

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It doesn't mean that, slow down. Even going on your stats, let's say that the 80% (needed for HIT) that get it are the over 30's, the death rate is going to be about 2-3%. If those 80% that get it are between the ages of 0 and 60, the death rate is going to be something like 0.5%. If you take that further and isolate the at risk groups (underlying health conditions) within that 0-60 year old bracket and let it continue through. You could reduce it to a less than 0.1% mortality rate in the UK. That is what the Gov are doing by leaving the schools open.

Yes it's not going to be fun, but it isn't the plague where fleas were biting people at random. Wash your hands, and you'll be fine. More people will die from the economic fallout than they will the virus, even more if there is a total lockdown for 9 months as requested by Professor Lineker.

Government has got this spot on and for once being totally open. People should remember that the Government didn't design the virus, they designed the model and the model is playing out according to plan.

LCHappy said:

It doesn't mean that, slow down. Even going on your stats, let's say that the 80% (needed for HIT) that get it are the over 30's, the death rate is going to be about 2-3%. If those 80% that get it are between the ages of 0 and 60, the death rate is going to be something like 0.5%. If you take that further and isolate the at risk groups (underlying health conditions) within that 0-60 year old bracket and let it continue through. You could reduce it to a less than 0.1% mortality rate in the UK. That is what the Gov are doing by leaving the schools open.

Yes it's not going to be fun, but it isn't the plague where fleas were biting people at random. Wash your hands, and you'll be fine. More people will die from the economic fallout than they will the virus, even more if there is a total lockdown for 9 months as requested by Professor Lineker.

Government has got this spot on and for once being totally open. People should remember that the Government didn't design the virus, they designed the model and the model is playing out according to plan.

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The confirmed cases covers all age groups, not just the over 60's!

anthony said:

he confirmed cases covers all age groups, not just the over 60's!

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When you quote 80% need to catch it to get HIT. It makes a massive difference to the mortality rate if that 80% is made up on the upper 80% of the population or the youngest 80% of the population. It's too simple to say 80% of 65 million people equals XYZ death rates.

Your 1-40 will die is based on the cases who have died up to now, every single one of those was said to be over 60 (one 59) and each one had underlying health conditions. It is scaring people to say 1 in 40 will die using those figures. 1 in 40 of the population is not 60+ with underlying health conditions.

We all need to just calm down a bit and listen to the scientists. I'm not political, but if anyone thinks that those two science guys stood up there next to the PM are lying then they are crazy. If they think they know more than them, they are bat sh1t crazy.

anthony said:

Public Health England had the data for all to see:
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

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Very helpful link, thank you for posting that. Gives people a much better insight into things.

Please don't tell people 'wash your hands and you'll be fine'.
We don't need panic but we do need people to take it very seriously and prepare for the reality.
Unfortunately the reality is scary, there's no way around that.

I am all for staying calm and listening to scientists.
The science is not settled and it is perfectly valid to question it, that's how science makes progress.

Denial isn't helping any more than jumping to conclusions.

LCHappy said:

More people will die from the economic fallout

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You could be right. Have you got any facts, evidence, logic or reason to back it up or are you just wildly speculating?

bonusmedia said:

Please don't tell people 'wash your hands and you'll be fine'.

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Why? Have you evidence that it isn't the case?

bonusmedia said:

I am all for staying calm and listening to scientists.
The science is not settled and it is perfectly valid to question it, that's how science makes progress.

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I missed the questioning bit.

bonusmedia said:

You could be right. Have you got any facts, evidence, logic or reason to back it up or are you just wildly speculating?

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Loads of links in this article alone, then even more on Google https://www.ccn.com/studies-panicking-into-recession-could-kill-more-than-coronavirus/

Have a read, make up your own mind, at the end of the day, knowledge leads to less panic.

anthony said:

Public Health England had the data for all to see:
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

As of yesterday (Sunday 15th March), from 1,392 confirmed cases, 35 are dead. In simple terms, 1 in 40 have died. That is a truly alarming statistic.

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It is alarming, but also wildly misleading. You are comparing deaths with confirmed cases, not deaths with total cases.

This is something we need to take very seriously, but it requires cool minds.

LCHappy said:

Wash your hands, and you'll be fine.

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Washing your hands is just good practice, but isn't much more than an effort by world health organisations to get members of the public involved and feel less powerless. The virus is primarily spread by coughing, sneezing and close contact with others.

For now, the risk to children in schools appears very low, they seem to be more likely carriers than suffers. Whilst this is the case, keeping schools open is vitally important in ensuring that health professionals (many of whom have families) can continue saving lives. My partner has a suppressed immune system and is considered 'high risk', so we discussed removing our boy from school and self-isolating as a precaution. It seems the position of the schools presently is that if you take your child out of school, you will be fined and face prosecution for long absence. All we can do for now is the usual, and avoid direct contact with the vulnerable which includes my father who has just undergone 2 heart operations and suffers from asthma.

ian said:

All we can do for now is the usual, and avoid direct contact with the vulnerable which includes my father who has just undergone 2 heart operations and suffers from asthma.

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My dad is in a similar position and, probably like yourself, I've attended with him in A&E at normal times and seen absolute chaos. The last time we were put in a corridor next to a bloke who was projectile vomiting for 4 hours while waiting for a doctor to access him. I dread to think how they'd cope in a real emergency?

The worry really is not so much that he'll become infected, I don't think you can avoid it long-term and putting people under virtual house arrest can't be a practical solution for anything other than a brief period of time. My worry is that he'll present at hospital and be put in a queue behind 100 other people in a similar position.

The current thinking seems to be that it's better to wait until the situation nears its peak before bringing in drastic measures - that way they are going to be more effective. Keeping kids off school is also too far a step now because after a week they'll be climbing the walls and parents will be going back to work because they can't afford to be off. All just at the time when they really should be isolated.

People like Dougs who are spreading false information and panic stories really ought to be put in quarantine for the next 6 months. That would be an extreme measure I would fully support.

Best wishes.

This is a dulled down version of why we cant just "lock down" schools etc straight away, seems to get through to people a little better. The gov are handling it the best way they can to ensure the most people get through it. That may not be how id like them to do it things, hell id have shut the doors to the country by now and closed schools but I am a mear mortal. This isnt going away any time soon and isnt going away by ignoring or thinking happy thoughts.

I am not remotely a politcal person. I do however have great faith in the UK's medical professionals and those advising the gov, and am generally happy with how it's been handled so far. A cousin of mine is on the board of one of the largest county health services in the UK, and she is also fully on board with what they are doing. The panic that is flowing through the general public is inredibly harmful.

I'm not a scientist, surprise, surprise.
However I can't understand why government
didn't try to mass produce a face mask provided free
by the NHS. One mask to each person giving first
preference to the vulnerable. I know some arguments
against it but none so far have I found totally
convincing.

websaway said:

I'm not a scientist, surprise, surprise.
However I can't understand why government
didn't try to mass produce a face mask provided free
by the NHS. One mask to each person giving first
preference to the vulnerable. I know some arguments
against it but none so far have I found totally
convincing.

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I managed to find what seems to be a reasonable and informed article about this recent pandemic. One of the quotes about masks is as following:

While a mask seems like a good idea, and when used by professionals it does protect from infection, it can actually give inexperienced users a false sense of security. There isn’t a lot of good evidence (still!) that shows a mask to reliably prevent infection when worn by the public at large. They are useful to put on a sick person to reduce their spreading of the virus.

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https://virologydownunder.com/so-you-think-youve-about-to-be-in-a-pandemic/

Yes seemly, exactly what I said, no convincing argument. The mask would have been to a very high standard and mass produced. If a person didn't want to wear one then so be it but the vulnerable would be able to wear one to reduce the chance of infection.

I don't personally believe that 34 deaths out of a claimed 10,000 people who have contracted the virus = 1 in 40 will die.

Against my own argument, yes, you could say that there's still time for many more of those 10,000 people to die, but at present the worse your condition is, the more likely it is your condition will be confirmed (all those ending up in hospital, for example).

My suspicion is that a large number of people who contract it will be like the Arsenal manager: better a week after the symptoms appeared.

I don't think any of us have sufficient data at present to be able to pin down the mortality rate, but I still don't see it being more than 1% on average, and looking at the 34 deaths in 10,000 with the virus, even allowing for time for some more of those to sadly die, my own suspicion is that the death rate MAY be between 0.3 and 0.5% of everyone who contracts it.

I say MAY because, let's be honest, none of us know precisely. I just hope my more optimistic figure turns out to be right.

Where I agree with Doug's opening post is that I think he's absolutely right about the total priority of isolating over 70s, both for their own sake, and because the more of them that catch it, the higher the serious rates requiring critical care will rise - and the pressure on hospitals is going to be immense in the coming months. In a sense, it's selfish if people in the critical categories don't isolate (tough as that is going to be for some of them) because it means more critical care beds will end up being taken.

Having worked in critical care for two years, I'd also add, don't forget our critical care units are already mostly full, even before this virus arrived, with people with severe cardio-thoracic conditions, and many other conditions. Be in no doubt that our health service - for all our loved ones when they get seriously ill - is going to be on the brink. Also factor in pre-existing staff shortages, and additional staff who will go off sick at what is anticipated to be 10% off sick in any one week in the peak 4 to 6 weeks of this virus.

As I've said in another thread, the huge concern at present is that there are nowhere near enough ventilators to meet the numbers who will need them at the crisis point. Production or more ventilators is an absolute imperative and priority. No measure is too extreme for getting thousands more made in the coming months.

In all this, not alarmism, but cold, steely practicality and calmness.