A look at a "real world" scenario.

[Edwin]

The Idea
I wanted to see what would happen to a representative cross-section of businesses according to Nominet's proposed "oldest first" rollout of .uk...

The Setup
947 "real business" domains, taken from the database behind the Cambridge.co.uk area guide. These are anything from accountants to hairdressers, punting companies to cafes, charities to tutors, mobile discos to estate agents. In other words, it's as fair and unbiased a "real world" sample as you can put together. The whole database was used - no picking or choosing. The only cleanup I did on the wider database to generate the list was to
A) Remove the non-resolving links
B) Filter out the non .co.uk/.org.uk/.me.uk sites i.e. leaving just those sites that are on one of these 3 extensions.

NOTE: There are 899 entities using .co.uk domains, one on a .me.uk domain and 47 on .org.uk domains

The Results
- Of the 899 .co.uk domain owners, 890 (99%) will be automatically eligible for the matching .uk.
- Of the 47 .org.uk domain owners, 40 (85%) will be automatically eligible for the matching .uk.
- The sole .me.uk owner won't get the .uk (no real surprise there).

 

[GreyWing]

I've not gone into your figures, so this is not a comment on that. But what happens when these .co.uk businesses don't bother to pay £10 for the .uk when they have something for £5, even though they have the option. We know they need it, but they don't, and won't until it is too late when a domainer or business competitor is sat on it. Over 5-6 years as things slowly shift towards .uk, they will be out in the cold.

The release procedure is a concern to some on here, it is almost a concern to domainers mostly. It isn't to members of the public, that's why it shouldn't happen because we should be looking out for them.

 

[GreyWing]

In fact phone 10 of your sample businesses up and try to flog them the .uk for £10... I bet 7-8 of them tell you to get lost or put the phone down thinking you are a sales call, like the PPI guys.

 

[foz]

In the real world all businesses cannot all use prime generics. They would love to.

<10% is investment grade in any one Registry.

Reported sales over the years have predominately been about webhosting_co_uk selling, not web-hostingltd_co_uk (which I suggest mirrors the list you worked with).

It stands to reason web-hostingltd_co_uk will not be affected by .uk

It's the top part of the Registry (the cream of .co.uk) and where others have bothered to register an .org.uk (as their second option) that will be affected.

 

[Lovekraft]

Just out of interest Edwin, are you now in favour of .uk under the new suggested proposal or would you rather it didn't go ahead at all still?

 

[foz]

The Results
- Of the 899 .co.uk domain owners, 890 (99%) will be automatically eligible for the matching .uk.
- Of the 47 .org.uk domain owners, 40 (85%) will be automatically eligible for the matching .uk.
- The sole .me.uk owner won't get the .uk (no real surprise there).

What is the break down for competing registrations?

e.g. of the 899.co.uk how many had a corresponding .org.uk to compete with?

 

[newguy]

Interesting stats. The more info the better with this mayhem going on.

I do agree with GreyWing on what is very likely over the horizon though. Tonnes of businesses won't understand the shift to .UK or will decide against it, much to their detriment in the long run. We could say, 'Then we must educate people about it!' but realistically it's a flawed idea to begin with so it's hard to convince small businesses that paying more for often no discernible gain is an opportunity they must not miss. And no-one, nominet aside, will be out there trying to convince or educate anyway, they will simply be circling and waiting for honest and decent business owners like those in your list to drop the ball.

 

[foz]

I do agree with GreyWing on what is very likely on the horizon though. Tonnes of businesses won't understand the shift to .UK or will decide against it, much to their detriment in the long run. We could say, 'Then we must educate people about it!' but realistically it's a flawed idea to begin with so it's hard to convince small businesses that paying more for often no discernible gain is an opportunity they must not miss. And no-one, nominet aside, will be out there trying to convince or educate anyway, they will simply be circling and waiting for honest and decent business owners like those in your list to drop the ball.

The blowback to that scenario is .uk won't take off. .co.uk will remain strong. .uk will linger for years. .co.uk success has been mass uptake and use.

 

[Rob_F]

The Idea
I wanted to see what would happen to a representative cross-section of businesses according to Nominet's proposed "oldest first" rollout of .uk...

The Setup
947 "real business" domains, taken from the database behind the Cambridge.co.uk area guide. These are anything from accountants to hairdressers, punting companies to cafes, charities to tutors, mobile discos to estate agents. In other words, it's as fair and unbiased a "real world" sample as you can put together. The whole database was used - no picking or choosing. The only cleanup I did on the wider database to generate the list was to
A) Remove the non-resolving links
B) Filter out the non .co.uk/.org.uk/.me.uk sites i.e. leaving just those sites that are on one of these 3 extensions.

NOTE: There are 899 entities using .co.uk domains, one on a .me.uk domain and 47 on .org.uk domains

The Results
- Of the 899 .co.uk domain owners, 890 (99%) will be automatically eligible for the matching .uk.
- Of the 47 .org.uk domain owners, 40 (85%) will be automatically eligible for the matching .uk.
- The sole .me.uk owner won't get the .uk (no real surprise there).

I wouldn't get my my corresponding business name, as it stands, a name I paid £3300 for. I'd lose out to a tiny family orientated website that was last updated in 2005 - Wednesday, 15 June 2005 to be precise.

Based on my own research, that 1% is far higher when you get into the realms of half decent/premium domains.

Whilst the revised proposals are a big improvement, there's still a long way to go. Amongst other things, I still feel .co.uk owners should be given first refusal.

- Rob

 

[Edwin]

Just out of interest Edwin, are you now in favour of .uk under the new suggested proposal or would you rather it didn't go ahead at all still?

Fair question. I'm pragmatic: I'd probably still rather it didn't go ahead, but I think it's pretty much bound to in some form. And at this point, since Nominet seems determined to keep pushing to do "something", the uncertainty is possibly even more damaging than the revised version of .uk will be - it's a toss-up. If we continue to paddle around in the dark for years without any kind of resolution, there will be NO trust in the UK namespace left to salvage. And then we ALL lose.

IF it does go ahead, then I think that the revised proposal covers enough bases and is the "least unfair" to the largest number of entities with, let's face it, highly conflicting viewpoints and vested interests.

It still has a few obvious flaws (the 2 character auctions for instance) but the principle of "oldest first" is consistent with Nominet's approach all along i.e. we have all known since the very beginning of drop catching that a "caught domain" has its date reset to the day it's caught. It's not like that's suddenly a surprise sprung on us in 2013. It's also a commonality shared by .com and other tlds, and other cctlds. I know of no major domain extensions anywhere in the world where dropped names "retain" the previous owner's original registration date.

On a personal level, we stand to "lose" just under 10% of our portfolio under the "oldest first" principle, including some quite juicy names. I haven't done the math exactly, but we're probably talking about names that we spent between £20K-£30K on acquiring via drops and aftermarket purchases. For comparison, we would win 99.95% of our names if it was ".co.uk first" - had I been hell-bent on protecting our interests rather than trying to find an overall "least worst scenario", that's clearly how I would have written my counter-proposal.

 

[mat]

Just out of interest Edwin, are you now in favour of .uk under the new suggested proposal or would you rather it didn't go ahead at all still?

What do you think

 

[websaway]

Combining a shorter suffix with the trust of the ‘.uk’ brand will offer a wider choice for both existing .uk registrants and the millions of consumers and businesses who are not yet online, and now want their own online space.

Nominet sees the revised direct.uk product as an addition to the existing portfolio. The high levels of awareness, recognition and trust associated with the current .uk namespace will continue to be attractive for millions of registrants, and Nominet is committed to offering, supporting and investing in all existing domains, including .co.uk, .me.uk and .org.uk.


from nominets press release above.
I don't understand how .uk will offer

" a wider choice for both existing .uk registrants and the millions of consumers and businesses who are not yet on line and now want there own namespace"

Are they suggesting that each new .uk and co.uk will be owned by seperate entities competing with each other in the same namespace ?

 

[newguy]

The blowback to that scenario is .uk won't take off. .co.uk will remain strong. .uk will linger for years. .co.uk success has been mass uptake and use.

Good point. In that scenario it'd be interesting to see who switches and who just prefers to stick with .co.uk . It'll be something that pans out over a period of several years I would imagine.

 

[foz]

Double post, please remove.

 

[foz]

I don't understand how .uk will offer

" a wider choice for both existing .uk registrants and the millions of consumers and businesses who are not yet on line and now want there own namespace"

Are they suggesting that each new .uk and co.uk will be owned by seperate entities competing with each other in the same namespace ?

If every .co.uk takes up the offer of .uk, the Registry will be mirrored. No great choices left to choose from.

If .co.uk holders don't want .uk and refuse the offer or don't bother, the new extension will take years to get hold. The first round of buyers will be protecting their .co.uk (a defensive move).

 

[websaway]

If every .co.uk takes up the offer of .uk, the Registry will be mirrored. No great choices left to choose from.

If .co.uk holders don't want .uk and refuse the offer or don't bother, the new extension will take years to get hold.

Ludicrous
I think they have snookered themselves even if they don't know it yet.

 

[foz]

If any ones up for it, how do the reported sales at domainprices.co.uk (4,889 records) fair? I suspect a lot of late date drops in there.

 

[Lucien Taylor]

Let's face it we're talking about .co.uk which has the real commercial value (generally speaking - the .org.uk-ers can maintain an identity against a commercial .uk without such confusion).

Obviously, the older .org.uk .me.uk domains trumping real commercial domains nonsense will be scrapped as soon as the business and trademark communities look at it. Save your effort, and don't get too excited, it will be quietly dropped after the next round of consultation.

By Edwin and FSB figures there are approximately 4.8million UK business. Let's say 50% have .co.uk domains (obviously more) - that is 1% of 2.4 Million = 24,000 business facing a threat to their brand. No, it is going to happen, and they will inevitably follow .nz, but they just can't bring themselves around to admitting it all in one go.

 

[foz]

and they will inevitably follow .nz, but they just can't bring themselves around to admitting it all in one go.

.nz is not a done deal and will probably report before Nominet.

If .nz doesn't proceed how would that look?

 

[Lucien Taylor]

Hi Foz,

I see you're in the NZ - do you see there's a real risk of that?

I was talking about the transfer mechanism, mediated negotiation between competeing parties and equal opportunites for all second-level players irrespective of registration date.

If, .NZ decide NOT to go ahead I imagine there will be a moment of stunned silence around the board table, and then they will reach for their laptops to figure what the acorners think - and then they'll take it from there! At the moment they are not facing any threats from acorn, and the big registrars are quietly purchasing new wheelbarrows for the cash.