Drops drying up?

[Edwin]

This is a topic that returns from time to time, but it really feels as if the drops are drying up. There's much less dropping (that has caught my eye) this month, and the outlook for the next 60 days or so isn't much better! What do you think? Are we heading towards the point of "no return" beyond which the gains to be made from catching don't warrant the constant investment in fine-tuning scripts and maintaining hardware? Or is this just a temporary lull?

Added: it's not just my "gut feel" - these are the numbers of domains I've been going after each month (not catching, just chasing) for the last few months...
Sep 2010: 141
Oct 2010: 161
Nov 2010: 129
Dec 2010: 145
Jan 2011: 89
Feb 2011 (until the 11th): 45

 

[foz]

Seems steady. More catchers out there than a year ago.

I think the volume of drops will pick up, due to businesses going bust and in turn not renewing their domain names.

 

[alex]

While I agree that businesses will continue to go bust, as the value of domains is more widely realised, especially the good ones, I doubt they will be left to drop.

I haven't got any catching system in place because the expense of starting up isn't worth it in my opinion. Certainly a few years ago, but I feel any good name will be sold by the owner in advance of dropping, or if it does drop then there will be too many people after it to justify investing in the technology to catch.

I'm not saying that those that are actively catching should stop, but anyone thinking of investing should consider the reality that they may not get their investment back.

I don't have a huge budget, but I do track a handful of domains I like and in the past year have contacted companies asking if I can buy the domain. In some cases they have transferred for free despite me admitting I would probably sell them on.

In reality domains will always drop, including the occasional gem, but a point will come where investments in catching technology will be greater than the potential income from catches. You may disagree with me, but I've decided that, for me, setting up the infrastructure at this point in time isn't worth the money or hassle.

 

[stender]

I rarely bother using my script nowadays, I think theres more people contacting owners of suspended names so they're either sold or renewed before the drop.

 

[cm1975]

If what Edwin says is correct, and he's looking 60 days in advance, then he is saying that fewer domains are entering the suspended status. ie. The only impact that people contacting the owners can have, is if they are contacting them in the Renewal Required stage or prior to the Renewal Date?

When businesses are being wound up, are we seeing more administrator and liquidators renew domains with a view to selling them on as assets?

Could it be that Acorn is having some impact on the numbers? Are more people putting their dropping domains up for sale in the bargain bucket to get a few pounds for them, than let them drop? Even some of the bigger players are punting domains for £xx rather than let them drop. (eg. Nokta)

 

[Edwin]

If what Edwin says is correct, and he's looking 60 days in advance, then he is saying that fewer domains are entering the suspended status.

Yes, that's what I'm saying. I monitor over 100,000 keyphrases off of my private lists, and there are fewer names expiring now than even a few months ago. That's what my stats above reflected: the number of names that seemed worth going after (to me) during that timeframe. And since I made each month's list waaay in advance, those numbers are unaffected by renewals at the last minute i.e. it's just "raw number of "desirable" names that may drop".

BTW, it's quite possible that just as much "junk" is dropping now as ever - because I'm working backwards from keyphrases rather than off drop lists, I only see the stuff that was already "good enough" for me to add to the source lists.

 

[davedevelopment]

I think it's only natural that the number of quality domains that drop decreases. We spend plenty of our time preaching to end users about the inherent value in a quality domain name, some of them listen, buy/register domains, see the benefits and will never let the names drop.

 

[tifosi]

I'm seeing both a reduction in the quality of domains as well as an increase in the number of those after them.

As ever it's a moving target. Even though I managed recently to get a lll when fully loaded it's fast approaching the time when I will be re-evaluating how and what dacr does.

S

 

[mally]

Might be more to do with company's like 123, 1and1 having a better renewal system as I guess alot of domains expire without the owner realising..

Change of email address/ bank card expiring/ dying can all contribute I guess to the number of drops

 

[wb]

An interesting thread, do you have your own stats from the previous 12 months to compare those figures to (number of names you are going after)?

 

[urbanvilla]

Well i have decided to join the drop catching game and we are developing our own software right now,there is still plenty of cash to be made out there ;-)