Future of Private Plates

Discussion in 'General Board' started by mat, Jan 12, 2018.

  1. martin-s United Kingdom

    martin-s Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 2012
    Posts:
    3,118
    Likes Received:
    188
    Yet you refuse to believe in crypto currencies :)
     
  2. Domain Forum

    Acorn Domains Elite Member

    Joined:
    1999
    Messages:
    Many
    Likes Received:
    Lots
     
  3. Edwin

    Edwin Well-Known Member Exclusive Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2005
    Posts:
    9,774
    Likes Received:
    519
    I believe in blockchain because I can see the utility as clear as daylight. I don't believe in cryptocurrencies, because one can be substituted for another as easily as can be, because new ones can be created at will (we're up to 2,000 from zero just a handful of years ago) and because no one currency is indisputably needed to make blockchain tech stuff work.

    But since they only hold their value because of the faith of those buying them, not through any inherent quality, it seems inevitable they will eventually crumble. That's not to say that others won't get rich along the way, but it's too much of a roller-coaster ride for me.

    Perhaps, however, we should pursue this aspect further on the Bitcoin thread, rather than here? :p
     
  4. Edwin

    Edwin Well-Known Member Exclusive Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2005
    Posts:
    9,774
    Likes Received:
    519
  5. martin-s United Kingdom

    martin-s Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 2012
    Posts:
    3,118
    Likes Received:
    188
    But you need crypto currencies to power blockchains?
     
  6. Edwin

    Edwin Well-Known Member Exclusive Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2005
    Posts:
    9,774
    Likes Received:
    519
  7. martin-s United Kingdom

    martin-s Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 2012
    Posts:
    3,118
    Likes Received:
    188
    OK, that's true, but only if you look at xCurrent as being a private blockchain, rather than a public proof?
     
  8. Admin Andorra

    Admin Administrator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2004
    Posts:
    10,660
    Likes Received:
    244
    Nice post. But insurance companies will still offer insurance for the fleshy drivers, they will just charge more. As long as the risks/rewards make sense for them they will make a market, because there will always be a set of the population who are like 'demolition man'...I'm one. I'll want to drive myself, I enjoy driving, putting pedal to the metal, feel the power, hear the engine. I'll also want to use my willy for sex rather than a vr headset. Too much information...
     
  9. dee

    dee Well-Known Member Acorn Supporter

    Joined:
    May 2013
    Posts:
    1,223
    Likes Received:
    125
    How does the VR headset thing work for sex? Do you strap it on.
     
  10. Admin Andorra

    Admin Administrator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2004
    Posts:
    10,660
    Likes Received:
    244
  11. Edwin

    Edwin Well-Known Member Exclusive Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2005
    Posts:
    9,774
    Likes Received:
    519
    Self-driving cars are coming even sooner than any of us expect (even me). There will be some already in 2019
    https://www.theverge.com/2018/1/12/16880978/gm-autonomous-car-2019-detroit-auto-show-2018

    If they can pull that off with even a 1 or 2 year delay, then it's easy to anticipate mass market penetration of self-driving vehicles for the mid-2020s. Fast forward 10 more years (average lifespan of a car) and most of the vehicles on the road will be self-driving (and electric). Which, incidentally, will kill most of the fuss around the end of internal combustion engines in 2040.

    Think about the smartphone market for a moment. It was pretty much created by Apple's first iPhone in 2007 (although there were smartphones before that, none of them reached a wide audience nor were very successful). So we've gone from essentially zero to 2 billion+ devices in just a decade. Why? For a wide range of reasons, but primarily because they weren't just better, they were MUCH better than what came before.

    It's quite possible the general public will see self-driving cars in the same way. Especially if they're made available at a cheap monthly rate and summoned "on demand" rather than owned. Imagine paying a couple of hundred quid a month (say) for the right to call a car any time to go anywhere at no additional cost. And then being able to sit in said car and not worry about a thing, watching TV, browsing the web, playing games, etc. while it whisks you smoothly and silently to your destination.
     
    • Like Like x 1
    • Agree Agree x 1
  12. Admin Andorra

    Admin Administrator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2004
    Posts:
    10,660
    Likes Received:
    244
    I believe one of the greatest technological limitations is in battery technology. For me its not moving forward fast enough and if / when it does it will be a massive game changer. Until it does we cannot have autonomous vehicles alone because they have crap range. I recently went on a trip of 300km. In 2 weeks I'll be driving 10 or 11 hours (1000km), ideally in one day and you couldnt do this with an electric car (which presumably will be the power source for automous cars). The battery charge times are too long and inconvenient. As a solution it still massively trails behind the combustion engine for convenience (refueling/charging time of 2 minutes). The fact that most mobiles will still struggle to give a days use when used fairly actively is surprising and disappointing.
     
  13. dee

    dee Well-Known Member Acorn Supporter

    Joined:
    May 2013
    Posts:
    1,223
    Likes Received:
    125
    Agreed battery tech is currently a limiting factor. But guys like musk are throwing huge reources at it to improve it and its rapidly getting better. I know tesla has a fast charge at their station so did a quick search

    So thats not actually that bad on a long journey. Stop for a coffee and stretch legs, charge the car and on your way. I guess at the mo you have to plan for those breaks as they arent in every moterway stop, but dont think it will take that long when it gets hold properly and costs come down
     
  14. Edwin

    Edwin Well-Known Member Exclusive Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2005
    Posts:
    9,774
    Likes Received:
    519
    Maybe you'll need to spend 60 seconds changing vehicle to a newly charged on once every 3 hours or so. (I can't imagine that would be a huge hardship, since you'd want to stretch your legs anyway.) Shouldn't be too complicated if you're using a car-as-service since your vehicle will be able to signal ahead and another can swing into place in an appropriate change-over spot.

    Plus as dee indicated, battery tech is improving - and once the number of electric cars goes up tenfold, then tenfold again, the incentive to get better gets better, if you see what I mean...

    By contrast, for your 10 hour journey, you can figure on 10 hours of R&R time when you don't have to care about watching the road. That's basically half a day tacked on to your trip/holiday - at either end, if you're talking about having to make the same drive back again. I believe the average person will be willing to put up with a little bit of fiddle-factor in exchange for those 10 hours.
     
  15. dee

    dee Well-Known Member Acorn Supporter

    Joined:
    May 2013
    Posts:
    1,223
    Likes Received:
    125
    Or they have stations that change a battery over for you so you dont even have to get out of the car and move suitcases etc
     
  16. Edwin

    Edwin Well-Known Member Exclusive Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2005
    Posts:
    9,774
    Likes Received:
    519
    Or the bed of the boot slides out and slots into a new vehicle with your stuff still in place. All sorts of things are possible when you're reinventing the driving paradigm with a clean slate.

    (BTW, while early self-driving cars look like they're going to be largely car-shaped, there's no reason why that has to be the case. You can imagine a much greater variety of shapes and sizes if you don't have to worry about accommodating a driver with a (practically) 360-degree field of view. And the space taken up by the engine is likely to be much smaller too, plus the battery doesn't have to be a big blocky thing - it can be thinned out and spread around the shell of the vehicle. Again, it will take time for the evolving market to settle on new designs, but once they do many people will find it hard to go back to the prehistoric layout of an old-style car, with its cramped seat-wells and very limited freedom of movement.)
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  17. dee

    dee Well-Known Member Acorn Supporter

    Joined:
    May 2013
    Posts:
    1,223
    Likes Received:
    125
    Of course. Again, look at the Tesla. Storage up front and at rear. No engine.

    I suspect it will take a while for "coffee table" cars to exist though as there is still the safety aspect. It wil still have to accelerate, decelerate and turn corners.And even its a circular sofa pod with a glass dome so you can see every direction people will need to be strapped in for a bit a reckon. If nothing else the " im filing a case because the car turned and i scalded myself with coffee" potential will keep manufacturers scared I would have thought.
     
  18. Edwin

    Edwin Well-Known Member Exclusive Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2005
    Posts:
    9,774
    Likes Received:
    519
    Plus when vehicles are self-driving and available "on demand" that also allows for pod-type single person commuter vehicles (offered at a lower per-trip price, maybe) i.e. about half the width of a regular car and with a single seat and very limited luggage space. They'd be perfect for rush hour situations, where you might have hundreds or thousands of vehicles converging on a single spot such as a transport interchange. Such vehicles would take up much less road space and might even be grouped so that they could ride two abreast and occupy the same footprint as a single car currently does. That would dramatically reduce congestion and speed up travel times during peak hours - which in turn would make each pod available to the next customer much quicker than now.

    In the above scenario, you can imagine 3 people need to get to a train station between 8am and 9am. At the moment, they all take at least 30-45 minutes to get there in 3 separate cars because the roads are jammed with vehicles. Then they have to battle for space in the car park, and they're already tired and frustrated by the time they're on the train. But with less congested roads, suddenly the journey times drop dramatically - and maybe there's time for one vehicle to accommodate 2 of these journeys because each only takes 15-20 minutes. So that's even fewer vehicles needed (each of which takes up less space) which decongests the roads still further.

    The same mini vehicles could be made available during school run hours to bring kids home from school. With scads of sensors inside and out, it would be like having an ever-alert chaperone watching over your child. There's no reason why any but the youngest children shouldn't be able to make the journey alone.

    Then the pods come into their own for a third time during the homeward rush. Even fewer are needed, because the home journeys tend to be a bit more scattered than the outward journeys in the morning, so each pod could easily service 2-3 journeys or more.

    Think about driving around a town or city at 4am. It's usually so fast, you're in and out before you notice. Now if you can apply serious smarts to crushing traffic at peak times (e.g. with the approaches I outlined above) there's no reason why a similar experience can't be available at 8am...

    And again, something like this will act as a massive incentive to get people out of their big fleshy-driven rust-buckets and into a wide array of purpose-built self-driving vehicles. Less congestion, less pollution, less road maintenance, less parking, etc. The list of benefits goes on and on.
     
  19. Admin Andorra

    Admin Administrator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2004
    Posts:
    10,660
    Likes Received:
    244
    Mmm not buying these car changing solutions as they don't take into account the fact the car is your private setup containing lots of personal possessions... luggage...2 large dogs etc
     
  20. JMI

    JMI Active Member Acorn Supporter

    Joined:
    Oct 2015
    Posts:
    166
    Likes Received:
    30
    I don't believe the 2040 end of engines deadline is practically possible.. just a Gove attention grabbing headline that will be perpetually rolled back until more like 2100
     
  21. dee

    dee Well-Known Member Acorn Supporter

    Joined:
    May 2013
    Posts:
    1,223
    Likes Received:
    125
    could end up being a hybrid , with a fleet of pool cars in cities for convenience available to anyone. OR you can choose to own so you can keep your own dog hair, glove compartment porn collection etc to yourself. You could still be part of the changeover system for batteries etc even if you did own. The pool car system would also have the advantage of being able to store them out of congested areas. They just pop in from massive carpaks out of town / underground when needed

    Of course, all this would rely for instance on a common standard. Not something were good at generally. Just look at most things of importance in say USA & Europe. It might be Beta / VHS again for a while