Is the number of .uk registered names about to reach its peak?

[Brassneck]

Personally, I would have expected the UK register to have peaked a couple of years back. It has continued to grow strongly in recent years - however signs in the last few months of growth slowing significantly.

Would be interested in views on whether we have now reached the peak size of the UK register, whether this is a temporary blip or whether competition from other Registries / people realising that they don't need to own loads of names etc now mean that the register will see a contraction.

Having 10 million names on the Register seems quite iconic for Nominet, so would be interesting to see if Nominet respond with marketing activity should the register start to contract.

There is a stats page here - http://www.nominet.org.uk/intelligence/statistics/registration/

Stephen

 

[sdsinc]

Why a contraction ?

You normally see contractions in the more recent shaky TLDs like .name .tel. And they tend to be temporary, the general trend is up.

I think .uk will continue to grow, but it could be at a lower pace as the supply of viable domains is drying up.
10M domains is a milestone but the number of domains per capita can still be higher -look at .nl for example.

 

[Brassneck]

Why a contraction ?

You normally see contractions in the more recent shaky TLDs like .name .tel. And they tend to be temporary, the general trend is up.

I think .uk will continue to grow, but it could be at a lower pace as the supply of viable domains is drying up.
10M domains is a milestone but the number of domains per capita can still be higher -look at .nl for example.

I just posted a link to some Nominet stats. Interesting that growth in last 3 months has been much lower than historically. I think a possible decrease in renewal rates could be the driver for this as new regs are fairly stable by the looks of it.

 

[Matthew Yates]

There is also the Domain Business stats site from Nominet:
http://db.nominet.org.uk/
Although this hasn't been updated for some time. It was supposed to be quarterly but appears to be an annual report again

Matthew Yates
Ex. Nominet

 

[Brassneck]

There is also the Domain Business stats site from Nominet:
http://db.nominet.org.uk/
Although this hasn't been updated for some time. It was supposed to be quarterly but appears to be an annual report again

Matthew Yates
Ex. Nominet

Some interesting analysis there.

Would be good to get some more votes / comments in this thread.

Stephen.

 

[Rob_F]

I think it will continue to grow, but not at the current 10%ish/year – probably around 4-5% this year, imo.

- Rob

 

[Edwin]

Of course the growth rate will drop in % terms, because the total universe of names is expanding! That's just math...

If you have 100 registrations and add 10 in a year, that's 10% growth.

If you have 10,000 registrations and add 500 in a year that's "only" 5% growth... but it's also 50x more new regs than in the previous scenario even though growth expressed as a percentage is halved!

 

[Bailey]

Overall i believe domainers holdings will contract - as they look to focus on their better domains (I think the majority on new 'domainer' entrants are becoming a bit more savvy than some of us were at the begining) - so it depends on whether the UK 'end-user' market finally gets a spurt-on to make that growth.

i voted contraction for the immediate future

 

[Matthew Yates]

Agree Edwin, but the key factor for total register size growth of .uk is actually renewals. The move to multi-year will change the numbers but in the past (based on 2 year renewals), there were >5 million renewals a year. Any minor fluctuation in renewal rate had a huge impact on total register size.

If you isolate just new registrations, growth of new registrations is pretty healthy - predominantly fuelled by low-cost registrar promotions (GBBO/Yell). This is why Nominet really need to focus on retention strategies and work with registrars on improving renewal rates - particularly with those registrars that have given away .uk names for free or at a very low cost.

As these names are coming up for renewal, renewal rates will drop off a cliff having a major impact on .uk growth. Of course I'm sure the guys in Nominet Towers have some plans/campaigns in place to deal with this.

 

[philspray]

Domain Business

The Domain Business (http://db.nominet.org.uk/)was last updated in March to coincide with the .uk register reaching 10 million registrations. The next update is planned for later this month.

Phil Spray, Nominet.

 

[Bailey]

The Domain Business (http://db.nominet.org.uk/)was last updated in March to coincide with the .uk register reaching 10 million registrations. The next update is planned for later this month.

Phil Spray, Nominet.

Thanks Phil - Nice to have you viewing (and commenting). - Welcome

 

[vizzo]

I voted for continued growth.
I don't see the domainer industry growing and in fact suspect that it will contract in terms of more people will allow names to drop that they realise are not reaslly worth renewing.
On the other hand there are still loads of small businesses without their own website who will realise that they need/want an online presence.

 

[Bailey]

I don't see the domainer industry growing and in fact suspect that it will contract in terms of more people will allow names to drop that they realise are not reaslly worth renewing.

Agree that will happen.

On the other hand there are still loads of small businesses without their own website who will realise that they need/want an online presence.

No where near the growth that we would all like to see. The internet is not new anymore it's not a new concept - I would say a lot of UK businesses have already made their mind-up (in the short to medium term)

So I believe your pointers actually confirm a contraction

 

[websaway]

New registrations and renewals will be lower but the secondary market will get stronger as businesses become more aware of the value to their business of quality off the shelf web addresses.

 

[Brassneck]

New registrations and renewals will be lower but the secondary market will get stronger as businesses become more aware of the value to their business of quality off the shelf web addresses.

The secondary market could hardly get any weaker! Hope you are right!

Stephen

 

[websaway]

The secondary market could hardly get any weaker! Hope you are right!

Stephen

I will say though that the best domains will sell better and there are an awful lot that have been sold and go unreported.

 

[anthony]

Agree Edwin, but the key factor for total register size growth of .uk is actually renewals. The move to multi-year will change the numbers but in the past (based on 2 year renewals), there were >5 million renewals a year. Any minor fluctuation in renewal rate had a huge impact on total register size.

If you isolate just new registrations, growth of new registrations is pretty healthy - predominantly fuelled by low-cost registrar promotions (GBBO/Yell). This is why Nominet really need to focus on retention strategies and work with registrars on improving renewal rates - particularly with those registrars that have given away .uk names for free or at a very low cost.

As these names are coming up for renewal, renewal rates will drop off a cliff having a major impact on .uk growth. Of course I'm sure the guys in Nominet Towers have some plans/campaigns in place to deal with this.

To read Nominet's take on things, you'd think they were responsible for reaching this milestone, and others, when in fact it is more a natural result of this country's size and technical standing. Most people don't even know who Nominet are!