Discussion in 'General Board' started by Murray, Mar 26, 2020.
So far my adventures have seen me lose about £800 of hypothetical funds on FXCM, but happy to be learning. That's mostly trying to trade on price action. I think around £500 of the loss came in one trade though, when I inadvertently miscalculated the pips and put myself in for 10x the volume I meant to. Lesson learnt there!
The dollar seems to have bottomed out with EU stimulus more likely to come before US
With that in mind I opened a couple small positions, I haven't got my head around how to use any new fx dedicated platforms yet so I'm still using Etoro for now
I'm hoping to hold these open for a while, several months if possible all going well and make a few hundred dollars but if the US election doesn't go smoothly that could turn $160 up into stopped loss out very quickly
Trading is a weird one, being up a small amount I'm quite blazae about but if I was down $160 i'd feel sick
My random stab Not financial advice.
Stocks are irrelevant of value of companies as they are now mostly being propped up by governments...ie if US gov does not support airlines then they go bust, hence many share prices now are based on people thinking which gov will support them.
As world interest rates go to zero, all that money is hunting for value and hence asset prices have gone way passed historic averages. Example Apple turnover and profits have hardly moved in the past year but share price has almost doubled. Money is hunting for safety and will also accept low returns.
Add to that mix over 70% on international trade is done in US$'s and as people head for safety they mostly have to trade in $'s and hence demand for $'s increases. Fed then prints trillions of $'s to pump into the US economy and also allow the world to trade easier...otherwise global trade stops as many people are simply holding US bonds and hence no $'s available to allow trade to happen. Chinese gov is pushing to do trade deals in Chinese currency and hence trying to diminish the $ as the global currency of trade....if this happens then people will dump the $ and hence anything priced in $'s will collapse.
Thus my view/opinion/guess is that as world goes into more madness the wealth of the world will head for safety.....$'s, gold, winner take all stock ( Faang's etc ), quality stock where company prints cash or holds solid assets...if you want the extreme side Bitcoin ( as many people see this as a virtual gold )...price has gone from $4K to $13K in past 6 months.
Just my random thoughts on a Friday evening.
The US government sells bonds to the market, commercial banks etc
The Fed with QE buy those bonds from the commercial banks but they don't give them money back, they give them the dollar equivalent in a collateral account held at the fed that can't be withdrawn from so they can't be spent, they're just added to the banks reserves
This lowers interest rates hopefully making loans more attractive and with the fractional reserve system that is where new dollars are actually created, not through QE
But banks are tightening loaning standards
This year governments were giving out stimulus and also deferring loans
There's still something in the US atm you can't evict renters for instance and that doesn't run out till January, something like 32 billion is owed in rent
Student loans also don't need to be repaid until December
At some point in the next few months there's going to be a real lack of dollars unless banks actually start loosening up
Stock market is loving the vaccine news..
Yeah.. its just blanony... remember Russia did this about 4 weeks ago with their so called "vaccination" miracle? I guess someones gota short the shit out of it for all the greedy corps, had to come up with something since recent JP Morgan fine... or am I just being cynical.
It's very out of character for you to be cynical..
When Indices goes up, Gold, CHF and JPY (Risk-off currencies) goes down, also USD goes down but not as much as those CHF and JPY. CAD(takes Oil along), AUD and NZD (Risk-On currencies) usually goes up when Indices goes up.
Watch out for retrace because of the big move, expecting a USD bullish shortly
It's all utter bullshit as the fundamentals all remain the same with or without Trump - QE to infinity, many SMEs crushed never to return, mass unemployment, whole industry sectors practically wiped out this is just a short term buying opportunity during a bit of Biden hype.
Someone sent me this today, he just nails what a debacle this all is..
If the government won't listen to a professor who is the director of the University of Oxford's Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine then...
..god help us all
The whole essence of trading/investment is to understand the situation and make informed decisions on what to trade or invest in. I won't say its all bullshit, if I do or if we all do, how do one makes money from the market.
I do agree with your statements about QE, I also have issues US Feds buying stocks and allowing companies to buy back their own stocks.
It does not matter what the fundamentals are or how good the technicals, nothing is guarantee hence we trade or invest on probabilities.
I am a technical trader, I don't trade the news at all and I don't hold any stocks, I look for opportunities in the market and I trade, like millions of other traders.
So, its not all bullshit..
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