If you have 100 companies in different industries called "green", only one of them can own Green.com or .co.uk.
Where as with new gTLDs, the accountant can have Green.accountant, the lawyer can get Green.law, the sports team can get Green.sports, the environmentalists can get Green.eco etc.
Absolutely, each domain name is unique. There is only one green.com, only one green.co.uk. Only one party will own them. Possibly forever !
Right now I can have greenaccountant.me, is Green.accountant significantly better ? I don't think so.
Both are alternatives, not the first choice.
The so-called scarcity of domain names is a joke. Because the supply of domain name is infinite. But quality is in short supply. There is only one green.com and there is nothing you can do about it. Releasing 5000 new TLDs won't change the fact.
Why would .inc or .corp thrive if .biz and .pro are shunned today ? Yes, good marketing can make the difference. But only to a certain point. Remember, it's not like consumers are eagerly waiting for these little things to be released and made available for registration.
I still don't understand the dilution argument. Again, 99% of these new gTLDs aren't designed to be catch-all extensions like dotcom. Hence, they aren't competing with one another as they all represent different markets. It's like saying building more synagogues will dilute the value of Mosques and churches.
Without followers, synagogues will remain empty.
It's more like preaching scientologist faith in a country where people already have firm, long-standing beliefs and will be very tough to sway.
.com and ccTLDs of developed countries have tremendous mindshare and have been ingrained in the minds of consumers for two decades.
It is unlikely that a new TLD will attain the same level of mindshare and trust... and credibility... maybe that will happen one day but the process will be very long if it ever happens. No worries.
You are going to have hundreds, thousands of TLDs, many of which will be competing against each other while the pie to be shared among them isn't big to begin with.
Result: low registration numbers, no visibility on the radar screen, no traction.
Easy: end users won't set up their business in the ghetto.
One thing that is very important: the registrars cannot promote 1000 extensions at the same time, because shelf space is limited. So choices will have to be made, in practice only a few will be pushed to the front window and have some meaningful exposure.
For instance, most consumers still have no idea that TLDs like .pro, .travel or .coop even exist. Therefore they aren't going to buy any.
And let me remind you, it's been 10 years.
It's no different for new extensions. It's even more difficult now, because the landscape has consolidated, today's TLD now have a stronger foothold.
The challenge is not even to convince people they are as good as credible as .com or .co.uk. The challenge is to be seen and stand out and foster awareness. That is an uphill battle.
Finally, I don't see a lot of opportunities for domainers, only for people who are on top of the food chain and yet we will witness registry failures and some instability. Personally I think the DNS should not be a playground for marketing experiments but icann is in the game for money.
IMHO.