Corona please read very important

The tube is a festering germ hole at the best of times !

My daughter is already off. Lack of teachers. This whole country is goig the way of Italy & Spain etc. Seems impossible and stupid to avoid lockdown

 

My son sent me a video of his journey on the tube yesterday morning as he passed through Kings Cross at 7:40 am, the height of London rush hour, just 3 or 4 people in the carriage.

 

I've just looked at a grocery delivery. Next available slots are:

Tesco 8th April
Asda 27th March

Thats for anytime!

 

From what I've read you have to time it right or you would need to do two or multiple

You want it to get as bad as it can get before the NHS gets to breaking point, then do a lockdown

If you do it too soon, it will quiet down for now but spike up to NHS breaking point after and there would need to be another lockdown and two+ would be pretty devastating for the economy, more of a complete disaster than it's already going to be

I've draw a little graph here, red line representing NHS breaking point, blue cases, green lockdown

 

Not aimed at you, but I hope people ranting on Twitter etc remember this when you look back in a month and nobody gives a dam about any curfew, and more people die because people start ignoring lockdowns. It was always a case of later the better.

The models the scientists have show that people acclimatise to risk very quickly and then don't give a dam. What their models probably didn't show is that social media experts and tv experts know better and have more influence.

https://www.ft.com/content/859e9336-68db-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcca75

As predicted by our scientists, Asia haven't cured it, they kicked the can down the road and will for years if they keep sticking to their method and don't leave the schools open like the UK has. They will be on lockdown one month out of every 4 if they carry on.

Didn't Starbucks all but admit their method of topping up customers own cups in normal times was spreading germs when they banned it this time?

 

Imagine waiting all that time and then they don't have anything you want

 

200,000 cases and 8,000 deaths. The death rate in Italy for people with symptoms is nearing 8%. It's clearly much less harmful on average to have the seasonal flu. In fact the ballpark seems to be that you stand about 20 times more chance of dying of Covid.

People keep saying "but x number die of the flu" seemingly not giving factoring in that this is a new Coronavirus and so is only now getting started. It's very likely to end up killing millions of people around the world before this year is out.

Also, in the Netherlands half of those in intensive care are under 50 (and if hospitals run out of respirators they will die too). Is that typical of the seasonal flu? People make the mistake of thinking that older people and those with additional health challenges tend to die and that everyone else is A-OK if they get this. That is not the case. Sure some people have no symptoms, but I agree with the current measures because I think the more we can limit deaths from this by not straining the NHS to breaking point the better.

 

I haven't.

 

No, thankfully

I think you can find bias anyway you want to, in news or stats

Personally I'm trying to be positive so I'm biased it's no worse than flu, but the big difference is there's no flu jabs for it

 

Not true. You are confusing confirmed cases with people with symptoms. Most people with symptoms (and no symptoms, but the virus) have not been tested.

 

Looks like Gov policy is the right one if this is the case. Monkeys develop antibodies to this family of viruses.

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/monkeys-develop-protective-antibodies-to-sars-cov-2-67281

Some good news for once.

 

From your link:

"In the Netherlands, people infected with coronavirus are only hospitalised if they develop severe pneumonia and severe respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). These illnesses make it difficult for patients to absorb oxygen due to inflammation in the lungs. Such patients need to be on ventilation for approximately three weeks before recovering completely.

The NRC reports that half the patients in the ICU may be under 50 because the number of people in that demographic is just relatively bigger than in other countries. It could also be that these numbers are completely representative because there just aren’t that many coronavirus patients in the ICU.

However, it should still be noted that the elderly remain the most vulnerable group to the virus."

This is the NHS advice...not exactly scary is it. https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/

Almost half the reported deaths are in Italy - which accounts for approx 14% of cases of CV. There's something wrong with that figure...14% of cases but 50% of deaths. Either Italian doctors are useless, which I doubt, or the reported number of deaths is skewed.

Also, 8000 deaths. There is no way of knowing how many of those deaths would have occurred without the person also having (or assumed to have in many cases in Italy) CV. It is absolutely certain that a high percentage would given they all have pre-existing conditions. It's possible that they all would.

None of this is meant to be argumentative. I see the panic caused is way out of proportion to the threat.

 

I guess with everything time will tell. I mean, I hope it isn't as bad as some models suggest it could be, but I personally think the steps being taken are prudent. Thanks for your thoughts on the matter!

 

I get that. I also understand that kids aren't really threatened by this. And that closing schools right now is a bad idea because A/ half the NHS staff have kids and will need to look after them and B/ If parents can't, then it tends to be Gran and Grandad that looks after the grandkids. The curve needs to be flattened so the NHS can cope.

I still reckon theyll be closing schools by end of this week.

 

I know. Crazy.

On a side note, my dyslexic mate has stockpiled 2000 sausage rolls and 400 cheese sandwiches. He read it as everyone is picnic buying at the supermarkets

 

People are self isolating already, the people who have it is easily 100x the given figures (which is why you'd lock down now, not based on testing), they just have less serious effects or are self isolating. No one is listening to the government after they say the 500k dead model. Now is the time to lock down, stop flights. some normality for mid summer maybe. China locked down quick, very low single digit cases daily across China and factories reopening every day, people getting their freedom back. Scotland and Wales are closing schools this week, why delay now, makes no sense. Do it now by June we'll have some sense of normality. Vaccines already on the human testing phase etc. The herd immunity strategy is out the door, I know people who are already self isolating and they do not have.

You'll notice on sites the BBC they are not opening comments much, for a reason. People are ready for the lock down now, there will be a ongoing rise for a week or so after it then the numbers will come, just like Italy. Spain is a little bit behind. London will get hit hardest simply because it's the most densely populated area.

Had the UK locked down airports for 3 weeks as soon as China shut down (and they were quick once they realized the scale of it) we wouldn't be in the position we are now The economy came first, yet delaying will cost the economy multiples of that loss now. Too many countries kept delaying, had they acted quickly they'd actually have had a huge advantage for their economy, like China is about to...

Edris Elba has it, no symptoms at all. Some will be immune naturally. You cannot base a lock down on test numbers, because the real number is way higher so you act now because you are actually closer to your number for a lock down anyway. It can passed on by people NOT showing symptoms, think about that. Everyone is looking for a cough etc, doesn't work like that.

 

Won't everyone?

It'll require a bigger bailout than 2008. Just as we were coming out of austerity measures...