My Footy Bets Today

[Aiden Roberts]

Here are my bets for today:

Champions League

HT/FT

Chelsea/Bayern @20-1
Bayern/Chelsea @28-1

Score Result

Chelsea to win 2-1 @12-1
Bayern to win 2-1 @15-2

Playoffs

HT/FT

Blackpool/West Ham @25-1
West Ham/Blackpool @33-1

Score Result

Blackpool to win 2-1 @11-1
West Ham to win 2-1 @15-2

On the same theme is there any mileage in starting a "My Bets" type blog? Anyone got any advice or examples of how to and how not to do it?

All the best.

Aiden

 

[Edwin]

I don't know anything about the subject, but looking at the odds you posted I wonder what would fall out of the historic data if you look at all matches which ended with a "score reversal" i.e. when team A was leading at HT but team B won it? If that happens more than 5% of the time on average, but you can count of getting 20:1+ odds all the time, then it would seem like a promising betting strategy to just bet that pair on EVERY match and forget other side bets.

(Remember: I did start by saying I know nothing about this, so please be gentle!)

 

[Aiden Roberts]

I don't know anything about the subject, but looking at the odds you posted I wonder what would fall out of the historic data if you look at all matches which ended with a "score reversal" i.e. when team A was leading at HT but team B won it? If that happens more than 5% of the time on average, but you can count of getting 20:1+ odds all the time, then it would seem like a promising betting strategy to just bet that pair on EVERY match and forget other side bets.

(Remember: I did start by saying I know nothing about this, so please be gentle!)

Hi Edwin

I like your train of thought. Many years ago I used to do a very similar exercise of a Sunday morning using the news papers, not very scientific but over a period of 2 months had I have bet on each premiereship game I would have broken even. It wouldn't have taken much to be in profit but obviously that's the risk as the same could be said for a loss. I usually hand pick the games I do this bet on mainly when they are on the tv and an all or nothing game. To date I am in profit but that's more luck than judgement but it would be interesting to do the exercise more scientificaly to see if the strategy would work in the longer term.

Aiden

 

[Aiden Roberts]

I might test this strategy in the Euros @10p a bet to see what happens.

 

[Edwin]

A quick Google shows me that historic football data IS available (possibly for a small fee for the really comprehensive stuff), so if anyone's a number cruncher it would be easy to test any scenario against "reality".

 

[newguy]

I'm really looking forward to both of these games. Along the lines you two are thinking along, if I had to bet I'd go for some of the less likely outcomes:

Chelsea/Bayern @20-1
Blackpool/West Ham @25-1
West Ham/Blackpool @33-1

 

[SCJohnson]

Put a tenner on each of those eight bets as I haven't done it in a while. Fingers crossed!

 

[Aiden Roberts]

Good luck

 

[springer]

Always interesting to see where others are putting their money.

As a Chelsea fan I have to bet on them to lift the trophy @ 15/8, although not in 90 minutes as I think it will be a close game and go to extra time.

A 'my bets' blog sounds a good idea. Perhaps we could create our own Acorn Domains league on OLBG to see how good [y]our predictions really are.

 

[Aiden Roberts]

Olbg?

 

[springer]

http://www.olbg.com/

You can post betting tips and win prizes. You can also create your own betting blog.

I have setup this league if any want to join:
League: Acorn Domains
password: couk

 

[Systreg]

These are my just for fun £1 doubles combining the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury and the Champions League final, should really be a procession for Frankel at Newbury, but you just never know, winning runs always come to an end at some point, it probably wont be today, but what the hell, bit of fun for the sake of a tenner :lol:

Bayern Munich/Chelsea @ 40/1 + Dubawi Gold @ 50/1 - Estimated Returns: £2091.00
Chelsea/Bayern Munich @ 22/1 + Dubawi Gold @ 50/1 - Estimated Returns: £1173.00

Bayern Munich/Chelsea @ 40/1 + Excelebration @ 11/4 - Estimated Returns: £153.75
Chelsea/Bayern Munich @ 22/1 + Excelebration @ 11/4 - Estimated Returns: £86.25

Bayern Munich/Chelsea @ 40/1 + Ransom Note @ 80/1 - Estimated Returns: £3321.00
Chelsea/Bayern Munich @ 22/1 + Ransom Note @ 80/1 - Estimated Returns: £1863.00

Chelsea/Bayern Munich @ 22/1 + Windsor Palace @ 80/1 - Estimated Returns: £1863.00
Bayern Munich/Chelsea @ 40/1 + Windsor Palace @ 80/1 - Estimated Returns: £3321.00

Bayern Munich/Chelsea @ 40/1 + Bullet Train @ 150/1 - Estimated Returns: £6191.00
Chelsea/Bayern Munich @ 22/1 + Bullet Train @ 150/1 - Estimated Returns: £3473.00

Also have a tenner on each of the half time - full time results.

 

[Aiden Roberts]

Can you put G ads on a blog discussing gambling as long as there are no links to gambling sites, this seems to suggest you can?

 

[Aiden Roberts]

Need Blackpool to win 2-1 now

 

[stender]

Need Blackpool to win 2-1 now

Hope you lose! Cmon You Irons!

Cmon you Bayern!

 

[Aiden Roberts]

Game on

 

[Aiden Roberts]

2-1 will do it's a profit.

 

[SCJohnson]

Nice tip! I got 9.4 on betfair so the Chelsea game is a freebie tonight!

 

[Aiden Roberts]

Nice tip! I got 9.4 on betfair so the Chelsea game is a freebie tonight!

Well done

 

[Aiden Roberts]

Just for a bit of fun with my 2-1 winnings I have added these wildcards to the Bayern/Chelsea mix £1 on each.

3-3 @66-1

Lampard to score first and Bayern to win 3-2 @ 450-1

Torres to score first and Chelsea to win 3-1 @ 200-1

Drogba to score first and Bayern to win 3-1 @ 165-1

Drogba to score 2 @ 16-1

Torres to score 2 @ 20-1

Just for fun, you never know!