Stocks

[davedevelopment]

Decide if you want to trade or invest first, they are both entirely different things. 95% of retail traders will lose money long term so best to look at long term investing imo.

I want to do both. Invest for my future, trade for side hustle. I understand they are different things.

 

[Murray]

do any of you have any go to books for trading I should pick up?

I don't think you need books

I've learned just from watching yt videos and googling. I can suggest videos for everything I say below if you like

^ People will make fun of that and be snobby about needing to read books but everything is already out there, you can learn and put all the pieces together yourself, ask questions here or other more trading/investing dedicated discussions places

I think you need four major things

Technical analysis - this is a must for investing and trading. Make a free account at TradingView and watch videos about how to draw in support/resistance and trend lines. Personally other than clear consolidation patterns I don't know how much I trust everything else when people start talking about patterns because it can be quite subjective, head and shoulders, cup and handle and things like that.

Macro - need to be able to see the big picture, what industries are poised to do well, which badly

Industry - once you learn what industries look good then you have to learn as much as you can about said industry and the players within

Individual companies - how to evaluate balance sheets, important ratios, future prospects, whats going to drive price up etc

That's about everything..

Other than that don't get trapped into the idea "well the price of this was high before, it's low now.. that's a good buy"; The titanic I'm sure was a beautiful ship worth a lot of money before it hit the iceberg but you didn't want to throw money at it when it started sinking

I personally think precious metals and gold miners are due a decent size pullback (we shall see if that plays out or not) if they do they it might open up a beautiful investment to hold for a couple of years

When they start falling off maybe that will be about the time the economy is getting back on track and oil stocks might be a way to go

But who knows this is all guess work until it plays out and it's fine to guess what's going to happen, but wait for confirmation before you put any money in. That confirmation will come from major trend changes you will see in your technical analysis.

 

[JMI]

I bet a lot of people lost a lot of money with todays crash. ETORO is shocking, totally rigged and fraudulent but is very easy to use. Plus500, 212 not bad. I only trade commodities.

 

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@davedevelopment I will strongly recommend this book, its a bit costly, I think you might be able to find it online, someone said they did cant remember.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/0735201811/?tag=acorn06-21

As a technical trader, price actions from candle patterns are very good indication of where market is going.

The next thing to learn is levels(support/Resistance/Trendlines), you will find loads of videos on Youtube on this.

I have 2 conditions that gets me into the market, I have one condition that make me stay in the market and profit taking steps and finally another condition to exit the market.
Too many noise out there and you will have to learn to filter a lot out.

Forex is big enough to trade, I don't trade stocks but Index on CFD. Today would have been a good payday on Index but I was on few Forex pairs from last week.

 

[Murray]

@davedevelopment I was thinking about this today and thought it's good advice for anyone thinking of investing in stocks or trading

Just like when you first learned about domains you think you have it figured out and you register a load of sh1t

The first stocks/trades you make you will look back on and think you would never make the same mistakes now

Don't be in a rush to start putting money into anything, markets aren't going anywhere, plenty of time to learn

I was lucky I started buying in April because that fluke luck turned out to be around bottom, I could have put my money in just about anything and it would have done alright

I bought oil and travel related stocks and I personally wouldn't touch them now, at least in the near future unless something fundamentally changes with the economy and covid which isn't really plausible

So yeah anytime in the near future you think about investing just go back and look at what domains you first registered

 

[ian]

@Murray Are you going to start betting against the market?

 

[Murray]

@Murray Are you going to start betting against the market?

Currently no

I'm willing to bet on the dollar which I think will move in opposite to the market though, at least in the short term

I talked a bit about it in the bitcoin thread but my thinking is based on dollar liquidity

The monetary system is a debt based one, ever increasing new debt has to be created to feed the old debt + create more dollars for circulation

New dollars are created from banks lending and they've been tightening their loan standards

The past few months there have been deferrals on mortgages and loans, so currency wasn't being fed into the wood chipper so it didn't matter so much there wasn't new debt being created + there was stimulus from the government to increase consumer spending

Now deferrals have begun to end, now there isn't stimulus checks + with banks still not lending and consumer spending going down.. it's going to go very bad, dollars are going to be required to pay back debts and they will be sucked out of equities, commodities, crypto etc and bonds will become the safe haven and the dollar will rally strongly due to demand and deflation

I don't think I need to bet on the way down, I think I will make enough money from buying precious metals (gold miners and silver etf etc) and bitcoin cheaply and them flourish for the next several years

That's the grand theory of how it will all play out anyway, whether it does or not who knows

In the meantime I have a decent amount of money in GGP and that's gone very well, I've taken profit, if it were to now crash along with everything else it would only be a small loss vs what I originally put in, if it continues to flourish great

 

[davedevelopment]

@davedevelopment I was thinking about this today and thought it's good advice for anyone thinking of investing in stocks or trading...

Appreciate the concern, but I've a wise old head on me now, slow and steady all the way. I'll be sticking with demo accounts while I learn.

Also won't be doing any real trading until I've laid the laws down with the wife. She'll probably not be interested in anything I say and I'll just be told "don't fuck up", but it makes me feel better if I make everything transparent.

 

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Appreciate the concern, but I've a wise old head on me now, slow and steady all the way. I'll be sticking with demo accounts while I learn.

Also won't be doing any real trading until I've laid the laws down with the wife. She'll probably not be interested in anything I say and I'll just be told "don't fuck up", but it makes me feel better if I make everything transparent.

Hi Dave, you are right its a marathon not a sprint, Trading is like learning to ride a bike, it will take a bit of time for things to fall in place. Some will learn it quicker than the other and its best ti give yourself enough time.

To support the idea of talking to the wife, you are right there. I trade with my wife, infact we all trade in our house and my wife is the one that always peg my ego when I start tripping.

I learn it first, taught the older son, my younger one is 15, his one year old account he started with £500 is now 6k plus. He started with hourly chart but change to daily chart because of school and during school breaks so he can spend more time on Xbox. Daily chart is good, it gives you a lot of time to do other things and no need to rush into trades.

I will say learn to trade first before investing and I will recommend Forex, it's the largest market and you don't need to worry about fundamentals too much. I don't trade the news but I keep eye on them and use them to manage my trade sizes.

Stock is good because there is a lot to chose from but you will need to learn a lot more than technical and fundamentals will play a lot here. This is what Murray explains above.

All you need is one good strategy, loads of patience and discipline. Patience and discipline are the key really, without these two no strategy will work.

If you need some tips on how to start let me know.

 

[signature]

@Murray Are you going to start betting against the market?

Hi Ian,
You cant bet against the market, market is always right even when you think it does not make sense, Market is still right.

 

[Murray]

I was just listening to a Real Vision video and Raoul Pal said something that perked my interest that I don't know a lot about

"I had this discussion with people in gold before the correction, it's getting pretty frothy, I'm still a gold bull but these things can go up and down, why not own calls instead of stock? because then you're locking in your profits, all you can lose is the premium in your calls and you're still participating in the upside and you can look like a hero"

His guest then said he was told my Charlie Munger

"If profit in your stock most people sell winners far too early, if you have to do one thing, say you're up $x amount, sell your stock you're up on and use 25-30% of the profit and buy a long term call spread and be there for the big one"

Does anyone have a practical example of how this would work?

It seems like buying with leverage and your long/short call are like take profits and stop loss

But I don't understand how the leveraged is figured out? because you're buying contracts or something.. does it just depend on how many you buy or do you set the leverage on the contracts, it's confusing

 

[newguy]

Good call! My shares have also gone up... not sure whether to let them ride or not. They're within a Lifetime ISA that i'd put 8k total into (just before and after tax year). GVC is up 31%, William Hill 114%. With the government bonus factored in and invested at the same time my 8k is now 15k+. I consider myself fortunate to have got involved when I did!

I've been fortunate again. I got out of my Vanguard index funds on account that the stock market seas have felt rather choppy of late! I left my Lifetime ISA shares in William Hill and GVC though, as they've been performing well over the months. Last week William Hill received a boost when they were chosen to become ESPN's exclusive daily fantasy sports provider and sportsbook provider in the states. And today shares were up 43% on news of buyout offers from Caesars and Apollo . GVC now up 50% since I bought, and William Hill 240%!

 

[3gmedia]

So I started trading in Forex a week last Monday under my sons guidance.

The investment started £1,000

The value of the pot as of today is £2,219

Very happy with the result.

 

[newguy]

So I started trading in Forex a week last Monday under my sons guidance.

The investment started £1,000

The value of the pot as of today is £2,219

Very happy with the result.

That great news. Congratulations on your initial success. Long may they continue! Nice that it's a family affair too

 

[3gmedia]

That great news. Congratulations on your initial success. Long may they continue! Nice that it's a family affair too

I lost 23 trades from £1.32 to £22.80

I won 55 trades from £0.66 to £145.41

So it looks to have worked these last 2 weeks, would have to give it a year to see how it pans out!

 

[dee]

nice one. Dont suddenly think your invincible though and start thinking " oh ill just change the stop loss as its gonna come back " Thats what normally happens and before you know it your down 50% .

You trading technicals or fundamentals ? Always interested in a good setup.

 

[Murray]

I lost 23 trades from £1.32 to £22.80

I won 55 trades from £0.66 to £145.41

So it looks to have worked these last 2 weeks, would have to give it a year to see how it pans out!

is 78 trades over two weeks a typical amount? seems very active

What was the average time you held a position? and what time frame are you trading on if you don't me asking

Thanks

 

[3gmedia]

nice one. Dont suddenly think your invincible though and start thinking " oh ill just change the stop loss as its gonna come back " Thats what normally happens and before you know it your down 50% .

You trading technicals or fundamentals ? Always interested in a good setup.

Neither really, my son messages me buy/sell including lot size and pip size for stop loss.

He'll message me to get out of a trade.

He measures the news, Brexit, trump, China, Australia, Unemployment, vaccine news, virus financial strategies, any other calamities.

He uses a currency strength tool, and an app to calculate lot size needed for the 2% trade.

I also try myself and have a go using gut instinct, low risk amount only.

 

[3gmedia]

is 78 trades over two weeks a typical amount? seems very active

What was the average time you held a position? and what time frame are you trading on if you don't me asking

Thanks

From minutes, to about 30 mins i guess.

My own trades can be a couple of hours until i make a profit.

 

[ian]

He should set up a whatsapp group and charge 10% of client profits. I'd be interested.