Corona please read very important

[bonusmedia]

View attachment 2685

What is going on?

It certainly makes sense that lots of vulnerable people are projected to die soon anyway.
The tweet talks about a scenario where we flatten the curve enough to keep it to 20,000 deaths. So, if the current measures work well it may still be possible to have limited extra mortality, but that's a pretty big if at the moment.
Saying 'theoretically, it shortens life by 12 months' is talking about a possible average across a whole population, not the impact on you or people you care about. The idea we might only lose a year of life each on average is not reassuring

Both of those sources support the current measures:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654
https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196

If anyone is saying that the measures are disproportionate, then what level of risk or death would be acceptable?
It's not like there is any way a normal economy could be maintained at this point anyway.

 

[bonusmedia]

Also just to point out, when someone with heart trouble dies in a car accident, we don't mark that down as 'probably would have died of heart trouble soon anyway, ignore the car accident'

 

[crazihos]

Irrational perspective is to look at the graphs and lists of cases and deaths posted several times above, and think that all those deaths wouldn't have occurred without CV.

Mate, my Mrs is ex NHS and has loads of friends who are doctors and nurses - support staff etc etc.

It's happening. They're already reaching a situation where cancer patients can't be treated properly as a direct result of this so will die prematurely.

Surely you're not saying these premature deaths won't be corona related? That wouldn't be sensible imo.

 

[BREWSTERS]

Mate, my Mrs is ex NHS and has loads of friends who are doctors and nurses - support staff etc etc.

It's happening. They're already reaching a situation where cancer patients can't be treated properly as a direct result of this so will die prematurely.

Surely you're not saying these premature deaths won't be corona related? That wouldn't be sensible imo.

Mate, my partner is a Sister running an Out Patients dept. They have cancelled all onchology clinics at her hospital.

You say premature deaths? That is the question I asked in the post you quoted...please quantify how many are premature?

 

[crazihos]

You say premature deaths? That is the question I asked in the post you quoted...please quantify how many are premature

I can't - but when Top NHS employees tell me how bad it is I listen to them and they are saying its a total shit storm.

Does your sister agree with your point of view on this? If she's front line then she'll know what's coming.

My opinion and yours are so vastly different so it's going to be much easier to agree to disagree than argue the points. Thumbs up.

 

[anthony]

Mate, my partner is a Sister running an Out Patients dept. They have cancelled all onchology clinics at her hospital...

As a healthcare professional, I'm interested to know whether your partner shares your skepticism?

 

[BREWSTERS]

Also just to point out, when someone with heart trouble dies in a car accident, we don't mark that down as 'probably would have died of heart trouble soon anyway, ignore the car accident'

Exactly my point. I'm amazed you've pointed this out.

If someone has been struggling with cancer / heart condition / high blood pressure / diabetes, or a range of these or other serious diseases..lets say 2.7 of the above...and gets a diagnosis of CV...then dies...is it CV?

The figures put out for CV say yes. What do you think?

 

[websaway]

You wonder just how hard it can be to buy what you need to keep you alive, only go shopping in singles and stay 6 feet away from everyone else. The super market shelves would be full, people would spend less time buying what they needed, no lining up in queues next to other people. I really don't understand why people just can't see the simple solution to a massive problem.

 

[BREWSTERS]

I can't - but when Top NHS employees tell me how bad it is I listen to them and they are saying its a total shit storm.

Does your sister agree with your point of view on this? If she's front line then she'll know what's coming.

My opinion and yours are so vastly different so it's going to be much easier to agree to disagree than argue the points. Thumbs up.

She's not my sister...she is a Sister (medical).

And our views don't always converge.

Yep, agree to disagree crazihos - no probs!

 

[BREWSTERS]

Yes, because it's happened ahead of time had they'd not had CV.

How do you know? That's presumptious to state that.

Many of these deaths are of people who will have had conditions for a long time. Other than CV, due to their weekened immune systems, they will likely also test positive for things other than CV. But they're not tested for those...it's all down to CV according to some.

Would all those dead people still be alive today if they hadn't also got CV?

Figures are skewed and flawed massively.

EDIT: for some reason I can see a previous post showing within this one, but trying to edit it...and it's not there to remove! Odd.

 

[bonusmedia]

Covid is the car crash. Covid is the new, exacerbating/aggravating factor that comes in, not the existing condition.

I don't think many are dying of COVID19 itself at all. I guess lots are dying of bilateral interstital pneumonia, for example, as a result of COVID19. So it will be listed somewhere among other factors. They are smart enough to consider different factors. Why would semantics about what gets recorded as cause of death matter at this point? Are you worried about them miscounting some people who get the virus but actually would have been fine if it wasn't for the cancer?

Where is this going? Are you saying we should artificially decrease the death numbers, or what? Remind everyone lots of people would have died anyway so we shouldn't be too sad? Can you get to the point please. Why are you raising this, what do you suggest is happening, what's your theory?

If you found a study that says something interesting, why not share it and let people judge for themselves?
I'm all for healthy skepticism and sensible questions. Instead of demanding other people to make effort to validate your ideas, how about saying what you think is happening, give your reasons and sources and folks can judge.
Asking people to prove irrelevant negatives or quantify things that haven't happened yet is not helping.
I'm not saying there aren't any bad things happening we don't know about, but there's plenty we can/do know about, and I suggest we're better off talking about that.

Frankly if you want to claim the moon is made of cheese, you can do that. But you don't get to ask other people to prove it isn't made of cheese, or demand answers about the intricacies of cheesemaking. If you're making a claim of some sort of cover up/conspiracy/corruption/foul play, whatever, the responsibility is on you to state it clearly and back it up, don't dance round the houses trying to discredit the best information there is so far.

 

[dee]

Approx 1450 people die every day in the UK. Life expectancy is 80yo

What percentage of deaths would you say were over 79? 60%...70%...80% or more?

The average age of deaths 'related' to CV are of people 79 years old or older. With an average of 2.7 pre-existing conditions.

How many people are dying 'because' of CV?

How many of these people would have died whether they had CV or not? 90%? More? (Italian Institute of Health think more).

Rational perspective.

----------------

Irrational perspective is to look at the graphs and lists of cases and deaths posted several times above, and think that all those deaths wouldn't have occurred without CV.

While I appreciate your angle, and questioning what we are generally spoon fed. In this situation, when you have actual people on the front line of the NHS in charge of ICU saying they are seriously worried , and when you look at the stats that have happened in Italy etc, surely you have to go with caution ?Even If it saves 1 parent, 1 grandparent , surely its worth it ? Even if its actually a 0.1 % death rate attributable to this pandemic , if everyone gets it, its a lot of extra deaths that can be prevented.

 

[BREWSTERS]

Covid is the car crash. Covid is the new, exacerbating/aggravating factor that comes in, not the existing condition.

If CV was the fatal crash in this scenario, then everyone with CV would have died..

I don't think many are dying of COVID19 itself at all. I guess lots are dying of bilateral interstital pneumonia, for example, as a result of COVID19. So it will be listed somewhere among other factors. They are smart enough to consider different factors. Why would semantics about what gets recorded as cause of death matter at this point?

Why would it matter??? If you've not noticed, the country has been put into lockdown on the back of the figures. That's why it matters. It's absolutely vital - that's why the Italian authorities are combing through every death and expect to revise their figures downward massively.

Where is this going? Are you saying we should artificially decrease the death numbers, or what?

I'm saying that the death numbers are artificial, because no matter what condition, and state someone was in...if they have a diagnosis of CV...it's stated as a CV death.

Remind everyone lots of people would have died anyway so we shouldn't be too sad? Can you get to the point please. Why are you raising this, what do you suggest is happening, what's your theory?

I've stated exactly what I think 3 or 4 times in this thread...I'm not doing it every time someone asks when its out there.

If you found a study that says something interesting, why not share it and let people judge for themselves?

Done that - no one has challenged the info.

I'm all for healthy skepticism and sensible questions.

Are you sure about that?

Instead of demanding other people to make effort to validate your ideas, how about saying what you think is happening, give your reasons and sources and folks can judge.
Asking people to prove irrelevant negatives or quantify things that haven't happened yet is not helping.

I'm not asking people to do anything other than think. Think about the figures, and what they represent. I don't need answers.

Frankly if you want to claim the moon is made of cheese, you can do that. But you don't get to ask other people to prove it isn't made of cheese, or demand answers about the intricacies of cheesemaking. If you're making a claim of some sort of cover up/conspiracy/corruption/foul play, whatever, the responsibility is on you to state it clearly and back it up, don't dance round the houses trying to discredit the best information there is so far.

So far, other than GregFindley, I don't see anyone who has countered any of the points I've made...and I've read, watched and responded whenever he has.

You certainly haven't...in fact it doesn't appear that you've even read them otherwise you wouldn't have asked what you have; skipped through perhaps.

 

[bonusmedia]

There have to be better ways to have sensible conversations about this.

 

[Siusaidh]

The best conversations are the ones going on between doctors, nurses, and support staff on the front-line. Their knowledge of the situation is the best-informed.

 

[anthony]

There have to be better ways to have sensible conversations about this.

Bonusmedia, he's flaming the thread, pure and simple. He clearly believes he's onto something, despite all the evidence of eminent authorities such as the WHO, the entire international community, the leading governments and medical experts of the world, the nations that are two weeks ahead of us and now drowning in a lack of capacity. He cannot prove a single stance he is adopting with tangible evidence from any reputable source.

Actually, I might be wrong on that very last point, as his partner runs an Out Patients department!

 

[dee]

The best conversations are the ones going on between doctors, nurses, and support staff on the front-line. Their knowledge of the situation is the best-informed.

This.....

Even if you don't believe BoJo or the news, I see a lot of social media from people who are ACTUALLY dealing with this and saying that we all need to be staying away from each other and having a sense of social responsibility.

 

[seemly]

@BREWSTERS - People that contract a cancer and die, do you attribute the death to cancer? Or do they die from the many multiple unfortunate side effects? Like;

• Pneumonia
  
• Severe Infection
• Renal Failure
  
• Organ Failure
• Brain swelling
• etc

Cancer is a catalyst, as is Covid-19. The deaths will and should be attributed to the catalyst as cause of death. Death may very well have happened anyway. Ultimately we all die at some point.

If I was to commit suicide by your logic I died of old age, because it was going to happen at some point anyway and I just expedited the end result.

 

[bonusmedia]

This looks like a useful collection of info:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...WdrCQypNK_lxXBLEevD2X9iw2Vs-OiY#gid=602011782

 

[websaway]

Let's get together and stay apart.