UK Leaves the EU - What happens next?

[websaway]

Can I just say that no matter what people say the referendum was deliberately an IN OUT vote. Any reasons people voted were their own.They would have varied of course. Now it will be up to the electorate to vote a government based on it's manifesto. We can all look at the various parties, which I always do, and vote for the one that satisfies us.
I think that if controlled immigration is not a strong policy for the tories then UKIP will be sitting on the opposition benches.

 

[EdwinEdwin is verified member.]

I think that if controlled immigration is not a strong policy for the tories then UKIP will be sitting on the opposition benches.

I think to an extent you're right there, UKIP would certainly get more than 1 MP if a General Election was called soon.

However, the government side might look very different to now, because it's unlikely there would be any consensus within the Tory party to run on a strong brexit platform given that most of their MPs wanted to remain.

The referendum doesn't magically wipe away the opinions of those MPs that it's the wrong thing for the country - it just means that they may be forced to act against their better nature to implement the "will of the people" so long as they are in the current government. But a General Election is effectively also in a sense a "reset button" - they can run on a pro-EU platform if they want to.

 

[websaway]

I think to an extent you're right there, UKIP would certainly get more than 1 MP if a General Election was called soon.

However, the government side might look very different to now, because it's unlikely there would be any consensus within the Tory party to run on a strong brexit platform given that most of their MPs wanted to remain.

The referendum doesn't magically wipe away the opinions of those MPs that it's the wrong thing for the country - it just means that they may be forced to act against their better nature to implement the "will of the people" so long as they are in the current government. But a General Election is effectively also in a sense a "reset button" - they can run on a pro-EU platform if they want to.

You are overlooking one thing about human nature. You say "those MPs that feel it's the wrong thing for the country" well Javid has just backtracked on his views, saying his heart was not in remain. Most, not all ,wanted to remain for self interest, we are now out, so they will look at their own interests and if that is going along with the peoples mandate then that's what they will do. Remain MP's are depressed, not because it's bad for the country but mostly because it's bad for their political and business options. Sad but true.

This is only my opinion and I appreciate others may not agree.

 

[EdwinEdwin is verified member.]

I think you might be misreading the tea leaves on this one. Watching the rolling news channels and news blogs, it seems that the more that the Leave camp (by which I mean Boris Johnson and the other core Leave team) seem to waffle and have no answers, the more that the view of many Remain MPs is hardening that it was quite simply the wrong result obtained in the wrong way. There have been multiple calls in the last 12 hours to find ways to roll back the result of the referendum or side-step it.

And in the last few minutes, Angela Merkel has come forward to say the EU must act to prevent other countries from leaving the EU, so there are two completely different timetables coming into conflict. The EU wants Article 50 as soon as possible to start stabilising the situation - the Leave camp have been falling over themselves to push the decision out (overnight their time table seems to have moved from early October to late November). A number of EU officials want Cameron to activate it tomorrow when he goes to Brussels - we'll have to see how that pans out.

 

[spiderspider]

Who changed the thread title?

UK leaves the UK?

 

[EdwinEdwin is verified member.]

The pound's down another 3% this morning, the FTSE 250 is down another 4%, bank shares are down 10%+. The financial markets detest uncertainty more than anything else, so things are likely to remain very fluid until Article 50 is activated (it doesn't solve anything instantly, but it provides a firm timetable towards a solution of sorts).

 

[websaway]

Hope nobody minds a little satire.

Jeremy Corbyn says he has had an email from Robert Mugabe saying hang on for dear life, it works for me.
He has also had one from Sepp Blatter saying they will get rid of you in the end.

Decisions decisions.

 

[BREWSTERS]

I think to an extent you're right there, UKIP would certainly get more than 1 MP if a General Election was called soon.

UKIP got more votes than the SNP - the SNP has 54 MP's, UKIP 1 - how can that be a fair representation? The whole system needs to be overhauled.

 

[EdwinEdwin is verified member.]

This blog post parses Boris Johnson's statement in the Telegraph last night very effectively (warning: lots of stats and graphs!)
http://qz.com/717412/boris-johnsons...s-half-truths-omissions-and-magical-thinking/

 

[BREWSTERS]

The pound's down another 3% this morning, the FTSE 250 is down another 4%, bank shares are down 10%+. The financial markets detest uncertainty more than anything else, so things are likely to remain very fluid until Article 50 is activated (it doesn't solve anything instantly, but it provides a firm timetable towards a solution of sorts).

Great for exporters and agree with your comment re Article 50

 

[EdwinEdwin is verified member.]

Great for exporters and agree with your comment re Article 50

You're right, it's definitely good for exporters. Pity that the UK imports tens of billions of pounds more than it exports, though...

 

[websaway]

The pound's down another 3% this morning, the FTSE 250 is down another 4%, bank shares are down 10%+. The financial markets detest uncertainty more than anything else, so things are likely to remain very fluid until Article 50 is activated (it doesn't solve anything instantly, but it provides a firm timetable towards a solution of sorts).

As always happens speculators will put pressure on the pound, fund managers will protect their position and on the other side speculators will buy pounds knowing the BOE will defend it, ie they are not prepared to let it find a level they don't agree with.
Osborne has made very reassuring comments this morning about the strength of the economy and the governments resolve , so all that is promising.
Stocks not even at a year low, and even if fund managers side line themselves in the short term there will come a time when buying is irresistible. If you look for bad news at the moment you can find it, conversely if you look for good news you can find it also.

The biggest question for everyone now is given the instability of the EU zone at the moment , where would people rather have their money. It's not all black and white.

 

[cannybagotudor]

I feel there is another agenda going on, the whole point of leaving the EU was more power and full border control, Boris now wants free movement, something isn't right here, and the fact Farge, who did far more than Boris to get this result being frozen out only adds to my concern. There worryingly seems to be an uprising of hate, this needs to be resolved quickly, dragging it out will only makes matters worse. Leave didn't expect the result and are definitely not prepared for it, I would see sterling recovering quicker if article 50 is activated immediately, indeed if it is delayed the whole event could cause a global recession due to uncertainty. Cameron allowed the referendum, he must activate it, all this is on his head.

If they want a UKIP government, sure allow free movement as if nothing has changed. The protest vote at an election if that happens will be huge. Immigration plays a role in all countries but it needs to be controlled, like Australia, they allow immigration but under strict conditions, in other words they look after their own citizens first as every country should. This is not a racist issue and that card has been well played out, it's look after your own first issue which the UK government hasn't done for some time. There are far bigger reasons for this, cheaper labor for huge companies would be one. I am not racist, I have Polish and Asian friends and they share my views, they have told me we would not be treated as well as they here if we went to their country to stay because they put their own first, this is what the protest vote was about in the first place.

I cannot believe osbourne has survived that leech MUST go, I think something fishy is going to happen yet, a referendum is not a legal obligation and the delays I feel are looking for a way out.

 

[monaghanmonaghan is verified member.]

Just something that irritates me. I've heard about three MPs on the leave side saying "the majority of the country have voted to leave" ... NO THEY HAVEN'T. 52% of 72% voted to leave ... that is not a majority of the country, just a majority of those who chose to vote.

Being balanced - Surely the remain vote is also only 48% of 72% and therefore equally as invalid?

None of the votes we have are a real majority because people just don't vote in them, as the system stands at the moment you can't make people vote so we have to accept that they don't want to be included and don't really care what happens whether on a local, national or international level.

Ignoring exceptional circumstances (which will be only a very small percentage of voters), not placing a vote can only suggest you are happy to agree with decision made by those who do vote.

 

[websaway]

You're right, it's definitely good for exporters. Pity that the UK imports tens of billions of pounds more than it exports, though...

Not if we export tens of billions on the back of a weak pound.
And import less for the same reason.
Especially when our best friends in Europe refuse to sell to us.

 

[EdwinEdwin is verified member.]

Please don't ignore the global markets. Some in Europe are already down 20%+ since the result was declared - and these are the countries that will be dictating terms on the other side of the table when Article 50 activates.

And as has been made abundantly clear, it is the EU not the UK that sets the terms of exit. The UK's role is to decide whether to accept them or not (this is not about trade - the trade deals are a separate issue and will be dealt with separately)

 

[zehrila]

Pound sterling managed to break its own record it set 2 days ago, it is now lower than lowest in 3 decades.

 

[EdwinEdwin is verified member.]

It would not surprise me to see a string of Tory cabinet resignations over the next few days (as is happening with Labour) as Remain-leaning MPs walk away and let the Leavers "own" their result, and its consequences.

 

[cannybagotudor]

Being balanced - Surely the remain vote is also only 48% of 72% and therefore equally as invalid?

None of the votes we have are a real majority because people just don't vote in them, as the system stands at the moment you can't make people vote so we have to accept that they don't want to be included and don't really care what happens whether on a local, national or international level.

Ignoring exceptional circumstances (which will be only a very small percentage of voters), not placing a vote can only suggest you are happy to agree with decision made by those who do vote.

Everyone had the ability to vote, indeed 2 million voters were added after the official deadline, if they didn't feel strongly enough to vote that was their decision. The majority of those who bothered to vote choose leave, that's as fair as it gets.

I voted leave but I see both sides, it was very close even I will concede enough leave voters were protesting against the government itself not the actual vote as to have had remain win but we have what we have. I would not be surprised if the government puts us into a recession with it's time wasting delaying article 50. A sort of forced "we told you so", Cameron will be very angry right now so he isn't going to care, a recession will not affect him and his cronies.

 

[ian]

So basically this thread has turned into the other thread that is now closed, and the title of this thread doesn't make sense, not unless the UK have now decided leaving the EU wasn't enough, and we wish to leave ourselves too (imploding). To be honest, getting bored of it all already, no longer have the news on, all the same doom and gloom, recession, big mistake, dayZ, internal fighting. Maybe the so called experts that run this country shouldn't have been given this responsibility after all!