Corona please read very important

[diablo]

On the testing issue, on Question Time the Health Secretary said they were starting new increased testing with 25,000 tests a day to start with. When pressed on exactly when there would be 25,000 tests a day, he replied towards the end of this week. It is now Tuesday and yesterday 5,600 tests were carried out. That simply doesn't seem enough to me. He says today they have ordered millions more, to be delivered in the next days or weeks - in all probability they are weeks away. It is now almost April, and I'm left wondering why contingency planning didn't lead to stockpiling these many weeks ago, because we need them now. Nevertheless I wish him well in a very difficult and challenging job.

Important to note that it isn't just test kits that are needed, but the staff and facilities to do the testing - alongside all the other tests for other serious medical conditions that still need to b done.

My daughter is one of those in Scotland doing the testing, working 12 hours shifts with testing now 24/7.

 

[Siusaidh]

As diabolo pointed out above, it's slightly encouraging that after almost exactly mirroring the rate of deaths in Italy for 15 days, in these past two days, though deaths are still increasing here, they are NOT mirroring the Italian rate.

...Tuesday numbers have tended to spike - so I am wondering if we'll see a rise in the rate tomorrow.

Today there were 54 deaths reported in 24 hours. I fear tomorrow the number may be around 80. Let's hope not.

87

Although we are a bit below the equivalent rate in Italy, 87 still puts us on a serious upward trajectory. We are still heading for over 2000 deaths by the end of the month. From there things get really difficult. The present lock down seems unavoidable to try to slow the rate of increase.

 

[Murray]

£30!? How is that even considered a fine. That's so low it's likely considered worth the risk to people who want to flaunt the rules. It's a bit pointless.

I thought the same with 5p for a plastic bag at the shops, that's just a trivial amount it wont change habits but it seems to have made a fairly substantial difference

I guess the big difference here though is if people don't think they will get caught

 

[BREWSTERS]

Technically it's hard to argue if we're actually in a lockdown. It's more just some basic restrictions which are shops are closed and you can't hang out with your mates/family. Some people can go to work and pop to the shop on their way, pop to the shop on the way home again, then go pick up their kids from another parents house before all going outside for a walk as part of their daily exercise... all in the same day. That's hardly a lockdown.

EDIT: In regards to why it's not classed as one... the page you link to states exactly why. You've just left that important information out of your copy/paste and then basically just said it's a conspiracy theory.

Leaving out information which goes against your point, is a bit disingenuous.

Not disingenuous at all. I linked to the page...didn't want to copy and paste too much as it dilutes the message. But I'm quite happy to add it for you as it's interesting reading, and supports the declining threat. Here it is - if you feel there should be more, please post it up;

As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.

The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.

The Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) is also of the opinion that COVID-19 should no longer be classified as an HCID.

The need to have a national, coordinated response remains, but this is being met by the government’s COVID-19 response.

Cases of COVID-19 are no longer managed by HCID treatment centres only. All healthcare workers managing possible and confirmed cases should follow the updated national infection and prevention (IPC) guidance for COVID-19, which supersedes all previous IPC guidance for COVID-19. This guidance includes instructions about different personal protective equipment (PPE) ensembles that are appropriate for different clinical scenarios.

 

[Edwin]

It has emerged today that the 80% guarantee for wages (where the Government will pay up to £2,500/month for furloughed workers) is something the Government "hope" to have in operation by the end of April.

In other words, it's largely a PR stunt. Sure, the money will probably come... eventually (like the much-trailed testing kits). But many firms won't be willing or able to hold out that long. Still, the Government got their positive headlines and persuaded people they were doing something.

 

[diablo]

It has emerged today that the 80% guarantee for wages (where the Government will pay up to £2,500/month for furloughed workers) is something the Government "hope" to have in operation by the end of April.

In other words, it's largely a PR stunt. Sure, the money will probably come... eventually (like the much-trailed testing kits). But many firms won't be willing or able to hold out that long. Still, the Government got their positive headlines and persuaded people they were doing something.

And still nothing (of importance) for the self-employed.

Coronavirus will be used as an excuse to forgive government / public sector failings for years to come.

 

[Hay]

Whilst not the most exciting bit of news... Companies house have extended every companies deadline for filing accounts by an additional 3 months which is 1 less thing to be stressed about.

 

[Lovekraft]

And still nothing (of importance) for the self-employed.

Coronavirus will be used as an excuse to forgive government / public sector failings for years to come.

There's a huge amount of pressure on the government to offer a more realistic financial support package for the self employed / freelancers and from what I've seen being reported an update about that will come very soon. I'm not sure if everyone will be eligible, because technically a lot of us can work from home but then business isn't exactly rolling in just now and will no doubt get a lot worse for many of us. What they proposed on Friday was a complete insult.

 

[Edwin]

Whilst not the most exciting bit of news... Companies house have extended every companies deadline for filing accounts by an additional 3 months which is 1 less thing to be stressed about.

That's very welcome to know. Thanks for sharing.

 

[LCHappy]

How nice would this be if true? Oxford Study says over half of UK already been infected with mild symptoms so low they never / haven't noticed.

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

 

[BREWSTERS]

Great news, it's no longer a HCID, so what should we do now, Brewsters?

Ignore the lockdown and Worldwide health warnings? Ignore the exponential growth in cases/death stats crippling various healthcare systems? Ignore the lessons from other countries and let people do as they please because it's political collusion by Governments across the World? After all, FDR also said, "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself".

Also, you might want to look up 'https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/bill-gates-vaccinations-depopulation/', and how conspiracy theories are sprung from selective quotes...

"In other words, Gates is not interested in using vaccines to reduce the population by using them as an agent of death or a tool to sterilize unsuspecting masses. Rather, Gates is interested in keeping more children alive in order to reduce the need for parents to have more children, thus limiting the overall population growth rate."

First of all, I'd like to state that I'm complying with all the measures, so far. Today I was supposed to set off on a 640 mile round trip to pick up a new motorbike that I was excited to be doing. Cancelled it after last nights PM statement. I never panic shopped for anything...despise any fool that did. Ok? I'm not putting anyone in harms way, and support everything the people who work for the NHS are doing. So that's out the way.

Now, I like numbers, and to quote Rick Schwartz, "numbers don't lie". So when one set of numbers doesn't tally to another set, dig down to find out why. Compare Italy with Germany. It's got nothing to do with population age, or air quality, or number of smokers etc - it's all down to what numbers are being compared. And what those numbers represent.

So lets look at figure for the UK.

66.44m population
c. 90k people tested
c. 8k people positive
c. 422 people died

So we're either looking at 5.275% die. Or 0.469% die. Or maybe 0.000635% die.

The only number that has any real meaning is the last one. As the other two rely on totally random factors.

The number 422 - during the same period that this number has built up, 22500 people over the age of 70 have died in the UK. That includes people who previously had a clean bill of health. We know that CV is far more deadly to those with pre-existing conditions...2.7 on average.

Also, the 90k people who have been tested...were only tested because they were showing symptoms. In other words, they had flu like symptoms. I wonder how many of those have gone on to die, but no one gives a monkeys because it wasn't CV. I'll bet any of you it's a sight more than 422.

Come on....Snopes? I didn't realise you were so far behind the curve. I'm embarrassed. Snopes...haha!

So, when a disease gets downgraded...why do the measures get ramped up beyond anything any of us have witnessed? Was this always meant to be the case?

 

[keys]

Companies house have extended every companies deadline for filing accounts by an additional 3 months

Companies House has changed its policy to automatically allow for a two-month extension and then another month after that if companies can demonstrate extreme circumstances.

https://www.accountancydaily.co/covid-19-companies-house-extends-accounts-filing-deadline

 

[Murray]

There's an interesting psychology revolving around corona

I feel like (nearly) everyone is concerned by it, taking it seriously and precautions

But as soon as you personally say "I've had some flu like symptoms, I think I might have it" everyone says "oh don't be so stupid, of course you don't have it, stop worrying, it's probably a cold"

So it's a super serious thing.. but no one you know personally could possibly have it

 

[keys]

stop worrying, it's probably a cold

That is most likely the case, and a rational view alongside stringent precautions. Worry causes stress to our immune systems, not good with a cold or CV.

The experience of CV is unpleasant or worse, from what we can see. The scary aspect is a week or more without symptoms, and being contagious during that time.

Fear of the unknown. There is much we have yet to learn about CV, the invisible enemy. It was easy to be complacent when the problem was in another continent. Now it is among us and we face many weeks or months of isolation and bad news as the reality plays out.

 

[Murray]

The experience of CV is unpleasant or worse, from what we can see. The scary aspect is a week or more without symptoms, and being contagious during that time.

I've read anywhere between 50-75% can have it and never show any symptoms

 

[dee]

Smoking, really bad eating habits, not wearing seatbelts all suffer from the invisible issue/problem curse. It will never affect you, until it does or you look back and realise it did. It's one of those weird human behaviours where a lot of people will do something that they know can potentially kill them or someone else, but still do it.

We humans have this odd thought process of if I don't see it directly happen as I do it, it doesn't seem real or will never happen. (Or a large part of the population do)

Yep.... optimism bias. About 70% of people actually seriously believe it. It's the " only happens to other people " syndrome

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimism_bias

 

[BREWSTERS]

Good to hear, genuinely (but given that you like numbers), that's 84 words defending yourself from accusations that haven't been made. I was simply asking... in light of the news you posted what you would like to see happen differently from what's happening now?

I'd like to see no lockdown.

You do realise this is crashing the economy...by design. That is the only given in this situation. Project your thoughts a few months into the future. Things aren't going to return to how they were. Things are going to be seriously bad for a lot of people...and worse for everyone. You, me, our families. Some of the freedoms that we had last week, we will never see again.

Why not ask why after the events unfold in the next however many months, surely it's better to err on the side of caution right now, when it could be putting lives at stake? And to learn lessons from countries who are ahead of us in the outbreak of the virus?

How many lives will be put at stake if and when we come out of these measures?

How many people won't be able to afford good food, hygiene, healthcare...homes? How many young people are going to be put off going into healthcare as a result of what they can see now? These things are certain.

---------------------------------------

Does anyone know of any autopsies that have been done, that show that a person died 'of' and not just 'with' CV? I imagine there won't be any at all.

Mike Pompeo (ex CIA Director and Secretary of State) slipping up here, describing it as a 'live exercise' - can anyone work out what Trump mutters to him? I can't.

Here's the CDC advertising the position for a Public Health Advisor (Quarantine Program)...back in mid November. This could be a genuine coincidence.

This is from a colleague at our France office;
Yes it’s totally over action – in France, we have to complete a form before to go out each time (only authorized reasons) – if police catch you without this form, you’ll get a fine of 135€ and if they catch you a second time same day, you’ll get a fine of 1500€….

 

[Murray]

Mike Pompeo (ex CIA Director and Secretary of State) slipping up here, describing it as a 'live exercise' - can anyone work out what Trump mutters to him? I can't.

Trump says "should have.. should have let us know"

 

[dee]

Does anyone know of any autopsies that have been done, that show that a person died 'of' and not just 'with' CV? I imagine there won't be any at all.

So are you saying the people on ventilators or not there ? There reports of decision being made on who to essentially let drown slowly are false ?

 

[Richard K]

How many young people are going to be put off going into healthcare as a result of what they can see now?

I assume you mean how many people are going to be put off going into healthcare as a career?

That is a worry, but certainly a lot more would be put off if we have no lockdown.

The nightmare scenario for NHS workers is of being overwhelmed (and infected) by more patients than the system can possibly handle. That's the prospect which is most likely to deter people from wanting to work in healthcare – and lockdown is there to address it.