Discussion in 'Business Discussions' started by accelerator, Jun 2, 2015.
It looks like I picked about the worst day possible to go short
Hanging on for now...
Just be careful, dont fight the tide, I went bankrupt trading CFDs....but i was very, very badly suited to it.
Hope things work out.
Looks like Tether just plucked a little more cash from thin air. Not a lot by historic standards (and neither enough, nor timed closely enough, to explain the recent rally) but it shows their EUR creation programme isn't completely dead...
Of course. I've said in my comments about Tether all through this thread that it is not clear whether they are scamming people or legit. Until they get audited - or busted - we'll never know for sure.
For those with some time to kill, this is a fascinating read on the state of market cap value versus Tether, and how its impact could be huge if proven to be a scam (which Tether is imo). As a crypto supporter, this report makes for painful reading, but feel it is worth sharing (I'm sure Edwin will love the technical analysis):
Pretty interesting read. Makes a lot of sense.
There's no arguing with the rebound... just hard to see what's driving it, as there's been relatively little news over the last few days and what there was seemed mainly negative, e.g. https://www.theguardian.com/technol...s-poison-says-warren-buffett-investment-chief
Worth noting that volumes have been thin - much thinner than when it was dropping.
Doesn't always take news to drive the price. General sentiment and the ' feeling that it must have hit bottom ' is good enough for a lot of people.
EDIT. If volumes are thin it could just go sideways for a bit .Maybe up to 11 ish , then back down. The only likely news trigger seem to the downside at the mo.
JP Morgan may be something.
Perhaps there's a bit of "the sky is falling" then "oh no, it hasn't... yet".
Anyone with a thousand BTC to throw at the market right now could make it dance a merry tune. For instance, it would only take 350 coins to drop it from 10,100 to 9,800 on Bitstamp.
Re trading volumes...
A look at the cheapest and most expensive places to mine Bitcoin...
Fascinating that one of the keener markets (South Korea) is staggeringly expensive. The Koreans must be buying 100% of their BTC, surely. Nobody can mine at those prices!
Plenty of good news in recent days, acceptance by many governments that Crypto has a future in banking; suggestions that it should remain self-regulated but enforcement on ICO's etc. There has been so much positive news that I'd strongly suggest all the FUD of last week was a coordinated attack to drop the price and then reverse the trend for governments and major institutions to buy in, and lets face it, they'll already be massively in profit.
Didn't expect you to post anything positive of course
Are you discounting the Tether analysis?
Of course not, that may be a huge thorn in the side and one in which I'm holding funds back for, in case of a significant dip, but the news has been mainly positive, and interestingly mostly from the government's of the world; even they love to manipulate the markets to suit.
Would be interested in how you did the maths ? Surely (and this is a guess) but most exchanges use an aggregate of the market and whatever they think they need to hedge ? That was half the problem with the korean exchanges not being priced in properly wasnt it ?
I was just studying the bottom graph on http://bitcointicker.co/
It appears to show the requisite aggregate volume of coins needed to achieve a certain price, from the current starting price. If you mouse over the graph, you can see how many coins would be needed to be sold/bought to reach that price level. Of course, they'd have to be bought or sold at an appropriate price, but it is at least indicative. For instance, you can see the market is turning bullish if it would take far fewer coins for the index to increase in value rather than decrease.
I've stared at the graphs long enough over the last few weeks to decide they offer at least a decent stab at "sentiment analysis" in that respect.
The way to interpret the lower graph from http://bitcointicker.co/
If the green downward trend line is much wider and shallower than the red upward trend line, that means it would take much less volume to move the price down than up. And the opposite is true if the green line is steep and narrow and the red line is shallow.
So for instance, in the screenshot below, you can see that the price will move much more easily negatively than positively at this particular moment because the green line meets the X-axis much further away to the left than the red line does to the right (the X-axis is a simple visual indicator showing a specific number of coins)
And now, a couple of minutes later, you can see sentiment becoming more negative. The red line (representing a price increase compared to the current price) is even steeper, and the green line (price decrease) is even shallower. So a movement of 311 coins would drop the price from 10,088 to 9,800 (-288) but the same number of coins going the other way would only raise it to 10,150 (+62)
BTW, the graphs don't guarantee anything. They only aggregate sentiment in that moment in time - but sentiment changes on a whim.
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